Soybean Weekly Comments July 24

Soybean Weekly Comments July 24

To start the week soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and then slowly climbed higher for the rest of the session, closing with strong gains at levels not seen since May. Current hot and dry conditions and forecasts that added heat and removed rain supported soybeans. Support also came from another day of export sales. USDA reported sales of 264,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China and 110,000 MT of new crop soybeans to unknown destinations.

Money flowing back into the commodities as US/Iran tensions increased again added to the gains. Expectations that crop condition ratings would drop were also supportive, but after the close the crop progress report instead showed a 1% increase in the soybean rating. China’s soybean imports for the month of June were a record 13.55 MMT with 12.08 MMT coming from Brazil (up 14% from last June) and 1.27 MMT coming from the US (down 21% from last June).

In Tuesday’s session soybeans gapped lower on the opening bell, tried to rally, but collapsed to trade with losses twice during the night session. The second failed rally was met with more selling pressure and kept soybeans in the red for most of the night session and part of the day. Early selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed a better-than-expected crop condition for soybeans. After the close, a large analyst group put soybeans potential yield at 53.8 bus, slightly above USDA projection of 53.0 bus. Losses were trimmed late in the session by spillover support from the other grains as well as from forecasts for the drought to continue.

Soybeans traded mostly higher overnight and added to the gains in Wednesday’s day session to close with solid gains and at new contract highs. Support spilled over from the sharply higher wheat markets and the gains in the crude market, which is at a 6-week high. Hot and dry forecasts added support. Improving export demand was also supportive. Traders expect to see somewhere between 1.0 MMT to 1.8 MMT in new crop soybean sales in tomorrow’s weekly export sales report.

Support also spilled over from the sharply higher soybean oil market with gains due in part to the US putting a 25% tariff on Brazilian beef tallow, making it too expensive to use in biodiesel production. The US imported 815 million pounds of Brazilian beef tallow in 2025.

Soybeans traded mostly on the higher side in Thursday’s choppy session. The market trimmed gains late in the day session but still closed with small gains and at new contract highs. Support spilled over from the higher crude market as tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate. Hot and dry forecasts added support. Today’s updated forecasts removed some rain. Improving export demand was also supportive. USDA announced a sale of 126,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. Last week’s export sales report showed minimal old crop exports (not unusual as the marketing year winds down). But new crop sales at 56.5 MB were strong with 37 MB of that sold to China. New crop sales total 225 MB vs. 96 MB at the same time last year.

Aug soybean support is $11.6375. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.

For the week, Aug soybeans were at $12.48 up 43.5 cents while Nov soybeans were at $12.535 up 50.5 cents. Aug soybean meal was at $331.30 up $11.10 and Aug soybean oil was at $74.33 down 48 cents.

 

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