To start the week, soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and then just kept adding to the losses to close sharply lower. Hostilities between the US and Iran cooled over the weekend, which sent crude oil sharply lower and that pressure spilled over into the grains. Updated forecasts that added rain and reduced the heat added pressure. That resulted in fund selling and money shifting from the commodities to the stock market. USDA announced two new crop export sales today, 132,000 MT to China and 126,000 MT to unknown, but the market largely ignored that.
After Monday’s close, the crop progress report put the soybean crop condition rating at 63% g/e, down 3% from last week and 1% lower than expected. Most of the major states saw decreases: KS down 8%, NE down 7%, ND, SD, and OH all down 6%, MN and IL were down 2%, and IA was down 1%. IN was unchanged and MO was the outlier with a 5% increase.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans were briefly higher at the start of the overnight session before turning lower. But the market got back on the positive side in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from declining crop conditions as yesterday’s crop progress report lowered the soybean rating 3% to 63% g/e with the western Corn Belt seeing the most deterioration. Rumors of China buying after Monday’s steep losses added support. China will start auctioning 500,000 MT of soybeans per week from their reserves to make room for US soybean imports. But rain in the forecasts and a return to average temps limited gains.
On Wednesday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but quickly turned lower and slowly fell throughout the rest of the overnight and all of the day session to close sharply lower and below the $12 mark. Early support came from the strong gains in the crude oil market as hostilities increased between the US and Iran again. But the market quickly turned its focus to weather. Forecasts have removed heat and added rain. Parts of the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt should see rain on Thursday and then rain will move into the Eastern Corn Belt for the weekend. Pressure also came from a lack of confirmation of rumored China purchases. In South American news, Brazil estimates their July soybean exports at 12.5 MMT, down 1.0 MMT from last week’s estimate but higher than last July’s 12.3 MMT.
Soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged in Thursday’s choppy session and closed with small losses. Pressure came from forecasts for more rain and average temps. Rains are moving through parts of the western Corn Belt and Northern Plains today. Losses were limited by strong export demand. Last week’s export sales were at the top of the range of expectations for old crop (11.1 MB) and higher than expected for new crop (49.0 MB). For new crop, 19.1 MB were sold to China. In addition, USDA reported a sale of 132,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China.
The updated drought monitor put the percent of soybean production in D0 to D4 drought at 50% vs. 39% last week. D1 to D4 level of drought was at 26% vs. 18% last week. ADM announced plans to expand capacity in 4 of their plants, including the one in Spiritwood. The expansion would add 25 MB of capacity between the 4 plants and is expected to be completed between mid-2028 and early 2029.
Aug soybean support is $11.6375. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Aug soybeans were at $11.72 down 76.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.875 down 66.0 cents. Aug soybean meal was at $312.20 down $19.10 and Aug soybean oil was at $67.12 down $7.21.
For the month, Aug soybeans were up 47.75 cents while Nov soybeans were up 43.75 cents. Aug soybean meal was up $8.30 and Aug soybean oil was up 19 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments July 31
Soybean Weekly Comments July 31
To start the week, soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session and then just kept adding to the losses to close sharply lower. Hostilities between the US and Iran cooled over the weekend, which sent crude oil sharply lower and that pressure spilled over into the grains. Updated forecasts that added rain and reduced the heat added pressure. That resulted in fund selling and money shifting from the commodities to the stock market. USDA announced two new crop export sales today, 132,000 MT to China and 126,000 MT to unknown, but the market largely ignored that.
After Monday’s close, the crop progress report put the soybean crop condition rating at 63% g/e, down 3% from last week and 1% lower than expected. Most of the major states saw decreases: KS down 8%, NE down 7%, ND, SD, and OH all down 6%, MN and IL were down 2%, and IA was down 1%. IN was unchanged and MO was the outlier with a 5% increase.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans were briefly higher at the start of the overnight session before turning lower. But the market got back on the positive side in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from declining crop conditions as yesterday’s crop progress report lowered the soybean rating 3% to 63% g/e with the western Corn Belt seeing the most deterioration. Rumors of China buying after Monday’s steep losses added support. China will start auctioning 500,000 MT of soybeans per week from their reserves to make room for US soybean imports. But rain in the forecasts and a return to average temps limited gains.
On Wednesday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but quickly turned lower and slowly fell throughout the rest of the overnight and all of the day session to close sharply lower and below the $12 mark. Early support came from the strong gains in the crude oil market as hostilities increased between the US and Iran again. But the market quickly turned its focus to weather. Forecasts have removed heat and added rain. Parts of the Northern Plains and Western Corn Belt should see rain on Thursday and then rain will move into the Eastern Corn Belt for the weekend. Pressure also came from a lack of confirmation of rumored China purchases. In South American news, Brazil estimates their July soybean exports at 12.5 MMT, down 1.0 MMT from last week’s estimate but higher than last July’s 12.3 MMT.
Soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged in Thursday’s choppy session and closed with small losses. Pressure came from forecasts for more rain and average temps. Rains are moving through parts of the western Corn Belt and Northern Plains today. Losses were limited by strong export demand. Last week’s export sales were at the top of the range of expectations for old crop (11.1 MB) and higher than expected for new crop (49.0 MB). For new crop, 19.1 MB were sold to China. In addition, USDA reported a sale of 132,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China.
The updated drought monitor put the percent of soybean production in D0 to D4 drought at 50% vs. 39% last week. D1 to D4 level of drought was at 26% vs. 18% last week. ADM announced plans to expand capacity in 4 of their plants, including the one in Spiritwood. The expansion would add 25 MB of capacity between the 4 plants and is expected to be completed between mid-2028 and early 2029.
Aug soybean support is $11.6375. Nov soybean support is at $11.65.
For the week, Aug soybeans were at $11.72 down 76.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.875 down 66.0 cents. Aug soybean meal was at $312.20 down $19.10 and Aug soybean oil was at $67.12 down $7.21.
For the month, Aug soybeans were up 47.75 cents while Nov soybeans were up 43.75 cents. Aug soybean meal was up $8.30 and Aug soybean oil was up 19 cents.