Soybean Weekly Comments June 5

Soybean Weekly Comments June 5

In Monday’s session soybeans saw decent gains overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and closed lower, with the front months seeing larger losses than the new crop contracts. A lack of threatening weather and expectations of good crop condition ratings in the afternoon’s crop progress report pressured soybeans. The crop progress report estimated the soybean crop condition rating at 66% g/e. That was 2% lower than expected. For the major soybean states, ratings ranged from a high of 79% g/e in Iowa and a low of 46% g/e in Ohio. Losses were limited by the strong gains in the soybean oil and crude oil markets. After the close, USDA reported April crush at 218.3 MB, higher than the average trade estimate of 214.7 MB and much higher than last April’s 202.4 MB. USDA also went back and increased March crush by 5 MB to 232 MB. Last week’s export shipments were within the range of trade expectations.

Soybeans saw small losses overnight and then added to the losses in Tuesday’s day session to close with double-digit losses. Pressure came from a lack of threatening weather as the next two weeks look to be warmer and wetter than average. Monday’s crop progress report put soybean conditions at 66% g/e, which was 1% lower than the same time last year and 2% lower than expected. Fund selling added pressure as money is flowing out of the commodities and into the stock market. Slow export demand and a lack a China purchases added to the losses.

In Wednesday’s session soybeans did see gains overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and again closed with double-digit losses and at levels not seen since February. Wednesday’s session was basically a repeat of Tuesday, with fund selling and a lack of any fresh news to move the market higher. Weather forecasts remain non-threatening. USDA’s deputy ag sect. says he expects China to honor its commitment to buy 25 MMT of US soybeans and that China is already placing order for new crop soybeans (but that has not been confirmed yet).

Soybeans saw small losses overnight and then the losses rapidly accelerated in Thursday’s day session. The market was able to trim the losses a bit at the end of the session but still closed sharply lower. Soybeans are now sitting at 3-month lows. Soybeans picked up where they left off on Wednesday due to the same issues – technical selling and a lack of threatening weather. The steep losses in the soybean oil market added pressure. Last week’s export sales were in the range of trade expectations. Soybeans’ new daily trading limit is 85 cents.

Hedgers should look to advance new crop soybeans sales at $12.25 Nov.

July soybean support is $11.57. Nov soybean support is at $11.73.

For the week, July soybeans were at $11.215 down 65.25 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.375 down 52.5 cents. July soybean meal at $308.50 down $21.30 and July soybean oil was at $74.12 down $3.60.

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