To start the week soybeans saw gains for the first part of the overnight session but soon turned lower and then drifted lower for the rest of the session and closed with double-digit losses. The advancing harvest in Brazil pressured the market. Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated at 60% complete vs. 53% average. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. China put 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil over the weekend, which could lead to more Canadian canola oil coming into the US. Losses were limited by the weekly export shipments report which reported shipments at the top end of the range of trade expectations. In addition, USDA reported a sale of 195,000 MT of soybeans to unknown.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded mostly lower for the first part of the overnight session but then turned higher and added to the gains. The market pulled back late in the day session and closed with small losses. US numbers were left mostly unchanged in today’s report. Seed use decreased 3 MB and residual increased 3 MB. That left ending stocks unchanged at 380 MB (as expected). The national average price dropped 15 cents to $9.95. USDA also left South American production unchanged at 169.0 MMT for Brazil (0.4 MMT lower than expected) and at 49.0 MMT for Argentina (0.2 MMT higher than expected). World ending stocks came in at 121.4 MMT, down 2.9 MMT from last month and 3.3 MMT lower than expected.
On Wednesday soybeans saw small gains for the first part of the overnight session before falling lower. The market was able to trim the losses late in the session but still closed with losses around 10 cents. Tariff uncertainty pressured the market as the US put worldwide tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and Canada and the EU retaliated immediately. Brazil’s advancing harvest added pressure. In Tuesday’s report USDA left Brazil’s production estimate unchanged at 169.0 MMT and Argentina unchanged at 49.0 MMT. Technical selling added to the losses.
Soybeans climbed slowly higher throughout the overnight and into the day session on Thursday. The market faded a bit late in the day session but still closed with solid gains. Support came from the weekly export sales report. Last week’s export sales were higher than the range of trade expectations and a 7-week high. Sales over the last 4 weeks averaged 16.7 MB per week vs. just 9.1 MB per week for the same period last year. Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop by 1.0 MMT to 46.5 MMT. Meanwhile, CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop by 1.4 MMT to 167.4 MMT (USDA is at 169.0 MMT).
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.16 down 9.0 cents while July soybeans were at $10.30 down 8.75 cents. May soybean meal was at $305.90 up $1.50 and May soybean oil was at $41.59 down $1.83.
Soybean Weekly Comments March 14
Soybean Weekly Comments March 14
To start the week soybeans saw gains for the first part of the overnight session but soon turned lower and then drifted lower for the rest of the session and closed with double-digit losses. The advancing harvest in Brazil pressured the market. Brazil’s soybean harvest is estimated at 60% complete vs. 53% average. Spillover pressure came from the sharply lower soybean oil market. China put 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil over the weekend, which could lead to more Canadian canola oil coming into the US. Losses were limited by the weekly export shipments report which reported shipments at the top end of the range of trade expectations. In addition, USDA reported a sale of 195,000 MT of soybeans to unknown.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded mostly lower for the first part of the overnight session but then turned higher and added to the gains. The market pulled back late in the day session and closed with small losses. US numbers were left mostly unchanged in today’s report. Seed use decreased 3 MB and residual increased 3 MB. That left ending stocks unchanged at 380 MB (as expected). The national average price dropped 15 cents to $9.95. USDA also left South American production unchanged at 169.0 MMT for Brazil (0.4 MMT lower than expected) and at 49.0 MMT for Argentina (0.2 MMT higher than expected). World ending stocks came in at 121.4 MMT, down 2.9 MMT from last month and 3.3 MMT lower than expected.
On Wednesday soybeans saw small gains for the first part of the overnight session before falling lower. The market was able to trim the losses late in the session but still closed with losses around 10 cents. Tariff uncertainty pressured the market as the US put worldwide tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and Canada and the EU retaliated immediately. Brazil’s advancing harvest added pressure. In Tuesday’s report USDA left Brazil’s production estimate unchanged at 169.0 MMT and Argentina unchanged at 49.0 MMT. Technical selling added to the losses.
Soybeans climbed slowly higher throughout the overnight and into the day session on Thursday. The market faded a bit late in the day session but still closed with solid gains. Support came from the weekly export sales report. Last week’s export sales were higher than the range of trade expectations and a 7-week high. Sales over the last 4 weeks averaged 16.7 MB per week vs. just 9.1 MB per week for the same period last year. Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop by 1.0 MMT to 46.5 MMT. Meanwhile, CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop by 1.4 MMT to 167.4 MMT (USDA is at 169.0 MMT).
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.16 down 9.0 cents while July soybeans were at $10.30 down 8.75 cents. May soybean meal was at $305.90 up $1.50 and May soybean oil was at $41.59 down $1.83.