To start the week soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session. Losses accelerated in the day session until the front months hit limit down (70 cents) around noon and then stayed limit down for the remainder of the session. Soybean oil was also limit down ($3.50) today. Tuesday’s session will see expanded limits of $5.50 for soybean oil and $1.05 for soybeans. Pressure came from President Trump’s comments that he wants China’s help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and if China doesn’t cooperate the meeting at the end of the month may be delayed. The White House later stated that the meeting may be delayed so Trump can focus on the Iran conflict. Additional pressure came preliminary meetings that the US and China held over the weekend in Paris. Reports have China open to purchasing other US ag products. That likely could include US grain sorghum or corn, which would likely limit any short-term soybean purchases.
Monday’s bright spot was the friendly NOPA report, but the market largely ignored it. February crush came in at 208.8 MB, sharply higher than the average trade estimate of 202.7 MB and setting a new record for the month of Feb. Soybean oil stocks, however, came in higher than expected at 1.928 billion pounds and were a 13-year high.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged and closed with small gains in the front months and double-digit gains in the new crop contracts. Support spilled over over from the sharply higher soybean oil market. Soybean oil was higher on reports President Trump is planning a major White House event on March 27 focused on agriculture and biofuels. The assumption is EPA’s blending mandates for 2026 (and possibly 2027) will be announced at this event and will be friendly to the biofuel industry. Bargain buying after Monday’s steep losses added support. Brazil is revising rules for inspecting soybean shipments to China after Cargill paused shipments. Now inspections will be made by private companies hired by the exporter instead of using government inspectors.
On Wednesday soybeans were lower for most of the overnight session but gained ground in the day session and closed with small gains in the front months and double-digit gains in the new crop contracts. Overnight pressure came from President Trump’s comments that his meeting with Chinese President Xi scheduled for the end of March has been pushed back “5 or 6 weeks.” But biofuel optimism supported the market in the day session as traders expect friendly news on EPA’s blending mandates will be announced at the White House’s Celebration of Agriculture that will be held on March 27. USDA reported a sale of 120,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown. Officials from Brazil will travel to China to discuss the recent changes to weed and pest checks for export shipments that China requested. The changes caused some exporters, including Cargill, to pause shipments.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged, saw the session highs late in the day session but then trimmed the gains at the end of the session to close with small gains. Spillover support came from the gains in the crude oil market but as that market faded so did the gains in soybeans. Biofuel optimism added support as traders expect the EPA blending mandates to be announced at an event at the White House on March 27. Gains were limited by last week’s disappointing export sales report. Sales were below the range of trade expectations, the lowest in 5 weeks and the 2nd lowest of the marketing year.
Ahead of USDA’s prospective plantings report that will be out on March 31, S&P Global estimates soybean planted acres at 85.0 million and Allendale’s estimate is 85.7 million vs. last year’s 81.2 million acres.
Hedgers should target $11.95 Nov to make catch up sales in soybeans. Target $12.25 to advance sales.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $11.6125 down 64.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.41 down 20.5 cents. May soybean meal was at $328.00 up $5.30 and May soybean oil was at $65.51 down $1.93.
Soybean Weekly Comments March 20
Soybean Weekly Comments March 20
To start the week soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session. Losses accelerated in the day session until the front months hit limit down (70 cents) around noon and then stayed limit down for the remainder of the session. Soybean oil was also limit down ($3.50) today. Tuesday’s session will see expanded limits of $5.50 for soybean oil and $1.05 for soybeans. Pressure came from President Trump’s comments that he wants China’s help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and if China doesn’t cooperate the meeting at the end of the month may be delayed. The White House later stated that the meeting may be delayed so Trump can focus on the Iran conflict. Additional pressure came preliminary meetings that the US and China held over the weekend in Paris. Reports have China open to purchasing other US ag products. That likely could include US grain sorghum or corn, which would likely limit any short-term soybean purchases.
Monday’s bright spot was the friendly NOPA report, but the market largely ignored it. February crush came in at 208.8 MB, sharply higher than the average trade estimate of 202.7 MB and setting a new record for the month of Feb. Soybean oil stocks, however, came in higher than expected at 1.928 billion pounds and were a 13-year high.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged and closed with small gains in the front months and double-digit gains in the new crop contracts. Support spilled over over from the sharply higher soybean oil market. Soybean oil was higher on reports President Trump is planning a major White House event on March 27 focused on agriculture and biofuels. The assumption is EPA’s blending mandates for 2026 (and possibly 2027) will be announced at this event and will be friendly to the biofuel industry. Bargain buying after Monday’s steep losses added support. Brazil is revising rules for inspecting soybean shipments to China after Cargill paused shipments. Now inspections will be made by private companies hired by the exporter instead of using government inspectors.
On Wednesday soybeans were lower for most of the overnight session but gained ground in the day session and closed with small gains in the front months and double-digit gains in the new crop contracts. Overnight pressure came from President Trump’s comments that his meeting with Chinese President Xi scheduled for the end of March has been pushed back “5 or 6 weeks.” But biofuel optimism supported the market in the day session as traders expect friendly news on EPA’s blending mandates will be announced at the White House’s Celebration of Agriculture that will be held on March 27. USDA reported a sale of 120,000 MT of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown. Officials from Brazil will travel to China to discuss the recent changes to weed and pest checks for export shipments that China requested. The changes caused some exporters, including Cargill, to pause shipments.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged, saw the session highs late in the day session but then trimmed the gains at the end of the session to close with small gains. Spillover support came from the gains in the crude oil market but as that market faded so did the gains in soybeans. Biofuel optimism added support as traders expect the EPA blending mandates to be announced at an event at the White House on March 27. Gains were limited by last week’s disappointing export sales report. Sales were below the range of trade expectations, the lowest in 5 weeks and the 2nd lowest of the marketing year.
Ahead of USDA’s prospective plantings report that will be out on March 31, S&P Global estimates soybean planted acres at 85.0 million and Allendale’s estimate is 85.7 million vs. last year’s 81.2 million acres.
Hedgers should target $11.95 Nov to make catch up sales in soybeans. Target $12.25 to advance sales.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $11.6125 down 64.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.41 down 20.5 cents. May soybean meal was at $328.00 up $5.30 and May soybean oil was at $65.51 down $1.93.