Soybeans started the week by gapping higher at the start of the overnight session then pulled back and traded in a tight range on both sides of unchanged. The market saw the session lows at the start of the day session but were able to trim losses a bit to close lower in the front months and just above unchanged in the new crop contracts. Pressure came from concerns that tensions between China and the US will accelerate after China condemned the US attack on Iran. President Trump is scheduled to visit China at the end of March. Losses were limited by the sharply higher soybean oil market and AgRural lowering their estimate of Brazil’s crop by 3 MMT to 178 MMT. Losses were also limited by last week’s strong export shipments that were above the range of trade expectations. After the close, USDA released the January crush report with crush at 228.0 MB, higher than the average trade estimate of 226.3 MB and last January’s 213.0 MB.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans climbed higher throughout the overnight session only to reverse course in the day session. But the market saw strength late in the day session to close with small gains. Overnight support came from reports that Treasury Sec. Bessent will meet the Chinese vice premier in Paris next week to discuss details of President Trump’s visit to China at the end of the month. There were worries the meeting might be canceled over China’s support of Iran. Support also came from ideas of lower production in Brazil. AgRural lowered their estimate by 3.0 MMT yesterday and today StoneX dropped their estimate by 3.8 MMT to 177.8 MMT. USDA released the January crush report yesterday. Crush was a bit higher than expected and all of the past 11 months have seen new monthly records set.
Soybeans traded back and forth in a choppy session on Wednesday but ended up closing just a cent lower. Technical selling and a lack of fresh news pressured soybeans. Traders will be watching to see if the Iran conflict has any effect on US/China relations ahead of President Trump’s trip to China at the end of the month. Losses were limited by the strong gains in the soybean oil market. China has again asked the country’s pork producers to reduce production due to slowing demand, which would also lessen China’s soybean meal needs.
On Thursday soybeans were higher overnight and added to the gains in the day session to close with solid gains. Spillover support came from the huge gains in the soybean oil and crude oil markets. Gains were limited by a disappointing export sales report. Last week’s sales were at the bottom of the end of the range of trade expectations and the 2nd lowest of the marketing year. While recent estimates of Brazil’s production have been declining, ArgoConsult increased their estimate by 850,000 MT to 183.1 MMT.
Ahead of Tuesday’s report, the average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 347 MB vs. 350 MB last month. The average trade estimate for Brazil’s production is 179.2 MMT vs. 180.0 MMT last month and Argentina at 48.1 MMT vs. 48.5 MMT last month. World ending stocks are estimated at 124.8 MMT vs. 125.5 MMT last month.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $12.0075 up 30.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.4675 up 18.5 cents. May soybean meal was at $317.20 down $3.30 and May soybean oil was at $66.58 up $4.73.
Soybean Weekly Comments March 6
Soybean Weekly Comments March 6
Soybeans started the week by gapping higher at the start of the overnight session then pulled back and traded in a tight range on both sides of unchanged. The market saw the session lows at the start of the day session but were able to trim losses a bit to close lower in the front months and just above unchanged in the new crop contracts. Pressure came from concerns that tensions between China and the US will accelerate after China condemned the US attack on Iran. President Trump is scheduled to visit China at the end of March. Losses were limited by the sharply higher soybean oil market and AgRural lowering their estimate of Brazil’s crop by 3 MMT to 178 MMT. Losses were also limited by last week’s strong export shipments that were above the range of trade expectations. After the close, USDA released the January crush report with crush at 228.0 MB, higher than the average trade estimate of 226.3 MB and last January’s 213.0 MB.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans climbed higher throughout the overnight session only to reverse course in the day session. But the market saw strength late in the day session to close with small gains. Overnight support came from reports that Treasury Sec. Bessent will meet the Chinese vice premier in Paris next week to discuss details of President Trump’s visit to China at the end of the month. There were worries the meeting might be canceled over China’s support of Iran. Support also came from ideas of lower production in Brazil. AgRural lowered their estimate by 3.0 MMT yesterday and today StoneX dropped their estimate by 3.8 MMT to 177.8 MMT. USDA released the January crush report yesterday. Crush was a bit higher than expected and all of the past 11 months have seen new monthly records set.
Soybeans traded back and forth in a choppy session on Wednesday but ended up closing just a cent lower. Technical selling and a lack of fresh news pressured soybeans. Traders will be watching to see if the Iran conflict has any effect on US/China relations ahead of President Trump’s trip to China at the end of the month. Losses were limited by the strong gains in the soybean oil market. China has again asked the country’s pork producers to reduce production due to slowing demand, which would also lessen China’s soybean meal needs.
On Thursday soybeans were higher overnight and added to the gains in the day session to close with solid gains. Spillover support came from the huge gains in the soybean oil and crude oil markets. Gains were limited by a disappointing export sales report. Last week’s sales were at the bottom of the end of the range of trade expectations and the 2nd lowest of the marketing year. While recent estimates of Brazil’s production have been declining, ArgoConsult increased their estimate by 850,000 MT to 183.1 MMT.
Ahead of Tuesday’s report, the average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 347 MB vs. 350 MB last month. The average trade estimate for Brazil’s production is 179.2 MMT vs. 180.0 MMT last month and Argentina at 48.1 MMT vs. 48.5 MMT last month. World ending stocks are estimated at 124.8 MMT vs. 125.5 MMT last month.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $12.0075 up 30.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.4675 up 18.5 cents. May soybean meal was at $317.20 down $3.30 and May soybean oil was at $66.58 up $4.73.