Soybeans started the week by trading with gains for the first part of the overnight session but then started to drift lower. The losses accelerated in the day session and the market closed with double-digit losses. Tariff uncertainty pressured the market as President Trump’s tariffs are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow. China has that they will retaliate with tariff and non-tariffs measures and “US ag and food products will most likely be listed.” Brazil’s harvest pace added pressure. Brazil’s soybean crop is now estimated at 49% harvested vs. 44% average. One bright spot today was USDA’s crush report. USDA reported January crush at 212.6 MB, higher than the average trade estimate of 211.1 MB and last January’s 194.8 MB and set a new record high for the month of January. Last week’s export shipments were in the middle of the range of trade expectations.
Soybeans opened the session lower and extended session losses on Tuesday. Early selling was tied to the implementation of tariffs against Canada and Mexico and China. Early losses were kept in check from another record crush estimate as USDA put Jan soybean crush at 212.6 MB vs expectations of 211.1 MB. This was another all-time high for Jan. News that 20 TMT of soybean oil was sold to an unknown destination added support. But once the other grains extended their losses soybeans joined in with tariff concerns, the main reason for the selling pressure.
Soybeans are in the same shape as the other grains, sitting in an extremely oversold market condition and in need of a technical correction. The selling in soybeans has been a bit more methodical, spread out of 11 of the last 18 days but still accumulating to a loss of 93 cents in that time. Light selling was tied to China. China’s immediate reaction of placing a 10% tariff on US soybeans added pressure. Although the US is not a major supplier of soybeans to China this time of year, we are still a supplier and with 1.2 MMT (44 MB) of unshipped soybeans sold to China and another 1.0 MMT (39 MB) of unshipped soybeans to Mexico, soybeans stand a chance of seeing cancellations.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but quickly turned lower and then traded in a choppy fashion. The market was able to get back on the positive side early in the day session and then added to the gains to close with double-digit gains. The market moved with tariff news, but gains were limited by better conditions in Argentina and Brazil’s soybean harvest hitting the halfway point.
On Thursday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and saw small gains overnight. The market added to the gains in the day session and closed solidly higher. Support came from a bit of cooperation on the tariff issue as President Trump gave Mexico a one-month reprieve on tariffs if the goods were covered by the USMCA. Later in the day Canada got the same reprieve. Support also came from reports that yields in Brazil are declining as they get into the second half of harvest. A Brazilian consultant lowered their estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop by 2.4 MMT to 171.6 MMT. USDA reported a sale of 20,000 MT of soybean oil to unknown. Ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 380 MB vs. 380 MB last month. The trade estimate for Brazil’s soybean production is 169.4 MMT vs. 169.0 MMT last month. Argentina’s estimate is 48.8 MMT vs. 49.0 MMT last month. World ending stocks are estimated at 124.7 MMT vs. 124.3 MMT last month.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.25 down 0.75 cent while July soybeans were at $10.3875 down 1.25 cents. May soybean meal was at $304.40 up $4.20 and May soybean oil was at $43.42 down 70 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments March 7
Soybean Weekly Comments March 7
Soybeans started the week by trading with gains for the first part of the overnight session but then started to drift lower. The losses accelerated in the day session and the market closed with double-digit losses. Tariff uncertainty pressured the market as President Trump’s tariffs are scheduled to go into effect tomorrow. China has that they will retaliate with tariff and non-tariffs measures and “US ag and food products will most likely be listed.” Brazil’s harvest pace added pressure. Brazil’s soybean crop is now estimated at 49% harvested vs. 44% average. One bright spot today was USDA’s crush report. USDA reported January crush at 212.6 MB, higher than the average trade estimate of 211.1 MB and last January’s 194.8 MB and set a new record high for the month of January. Last week’s export shipments were in the middle of the range of trade expectations.
Soybeans opened the session lower and extended session losses on Tuesday. Early selling was tied to the implementation of tariffs against Canada and Mexico and China. Early losses were kept in check from another record crush estimate as USDA put Jan soybean crush at 212.6 MB vs expectations of 211.1 MB. This was another all-time high for Jan. News that 20 TMT of soybean oil was sold to an unknown destination added support. But once the other grains extended their losses soybeans joined in with tariff concerns, the main reason for the selling pressure.
Soybeans are in the same shape as the other grains, sitting in an extremely oversold market condition and in need of a technical correction. The selling in soybeans has been a bit more methodical, spread out of 11 of the last 18 days but still accumulating to a loss of 93 cents in that time. Light selling was tied to China. China’s immediate reaction of placing a 10% tariff on US soybeans added pressure. Although the US is not a major supplier of soybeans to China this time of year, we are still a supplier and with 1.2 MMT (44 MB) of unshipped soybeans sold to China and another 1.0 MMT (39 MB) of unshipped soybeans to Mexico, soybeans stand a chance of seeing cancellations.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session but quickly turned lower and then traded in a choppy fashion. The market was able to get back on the positive side early in the day session and then added to the gains to close with double-digit gains. The market moved with tariff news, but gains were limited by better conditions in Argentina and Brazil’s soybean harvest hitting the halfway point.
On Thursday soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and saw small gains overnight. The market added to the gains in the day session and closed solidly higher. Support came from a bit of cooperation on the tariff issue as President Trump gave Mexico a one-month reprieve on tariffs if the goods were covered by the USMCA. Later in the day Canada got the same reprieve. Support also came from reports that yields in Brazil are declining as they get into the second half of harvest. A Brazilian consultant lowered their estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop by 2.4 MMT to 171.6 MMT. USDA reported a sale of 20,000 MT of soybean oil to unknown.
Ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 380 MB vs. 380 MB last month. The trade estimate for Brazil’s soybean production is 169.4 MMT vs. 169.0 MMT last month. Argentina’s estimate is 48.8 MMT vs. 49.0 MMT last month. World ending stocks are estimated at 124.7 MMT vs. 124.3 MMT last month.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.25 down 0.75 cent while July soybeans were at $10.3875 down 1.25 cents. May soybean meal was at $304.40 up $4.20 and May soybean oil was at $43.42 down 70 cents.