To start the week soybeans were lower overnight and into the day session. The market was able to get on the positive side late in the day session and closed with small gains. Light support came from technical buying. Spillover support came from the strong gains in the soybean oil market. Support also came from a South Korean newspaper that reported high level trade talks have been going on between the US and China. But that was offset by a Chinese official stating China could secure enough soybeans and other grains without importing from the US and there is still confusion on whether or not Trump and Xi have had trade conversations. Gains were limited by the needed rains falling in the Northern Plains. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded in a tight range on both sides of unchanged overnight. The market added to the losses in the day session but was able to trim the losses late in the session. USDA reported a sale of 110,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. That was the first reported daily export sale since April 11. Trade uncertainly pressured the market as Treasury Sec. Bessent declined to answer the question of whether or not the US and China are currently having trade negotiations. Trump says he’s talked to Xi while Chinese officials deny any talks have taken place. In addition, China announced a plan to lower the amount of grain used for livestock feed by 60%, including cutting soymeal use from 13% to 10% by 2030. Bessent also said the US is close to finalizing a trade deal with India. While India does not import US soybeans, they are the 5th largest importer of US soybean oil.
On Wednesday, soybeans slowly fell lower throughout the overnight session. The market tried to rebound early in the day session but faded again and closed with losses. Technical selling pressured the market. Slow demand and month end positioning added to the losses. On the tariff front, there were reports China is quietly removing some products from their 125% tariff list after asking companies what they need. Brazil’s export group lowered their estimate of April exports to 13.8 MMT, down 0.5 MMT from their prior estimate. The country exported 14.7 MMT in March and also exported 14.7 MMT last April. Argentina’s farmers are selling their soybeans at the slowest pace in 11 years due to weather delaying harvest and concerns about the exchange rate and export taxes.
Soybeans opened the session lower and extended session pressure throughout the night in Thursday’s session. Early selling was tied to forecasts for rain for the Corn Belt which has traders concerned that some corn acreage will switch back to soybeans. Light selling was also due to the lack of progress on trade talks. Soybeans were able to brush off the early pressure once the day session started. Early support was due to news out of China stating the US has reached out to China and is willing to get trade talks going. The fact that China is on holiday and closed until Tuesday added pressure. The Census Crush estimate was released Thursday afternoon. For the month of March 206.6 MB of soybeans were crushed vs expectation for 205.5 MB and vs 204 MB last year. This was a new record for the month.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.4875 down 1.0 cent while July was at $10.58 down 1.25 cents. July soybean meal was at $296.90 down $1.60 and July soybean oil was at $49.43 down 38 cents.
For the month, May soybeans were up 20.0 cents while July soybeans were up 16.25 cents. May soybean meal was down $2.70 and May soybean oil was up $3.69.
Soybean Weekly Comments May 2
Soybean Weekly Comments May 2
To start the week soybeans were lower overnight and into the day session. The market was able to get on the positive side late in the day session and closed with small gains. Light support came from technical buying. Spillover support came from the strong gains in the soybean oil market. Support also came from a South Korean newspaper that reported high level trade talks have been going on between the US and China. But that was offset by a Chinese official stating China could secure enough soybeans and other grains without importing from the US and there is still confusion on whether or not Trump and Xi have had trade conversations. Gains were limited by the needed rains falling in the Northern Plains. Last week’s export shipments were in the range of trade expectations.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded in a tight range on both sides of unchanged overnight. The market added to the losses in the day session but was able to trim the losses late in the session. USDA reported a sale of 110,000 MT of soybeans to unknown. That was the first reported daily export sale since April 11. Trade uncertainly pressured the market as Treasury Sec. Bessent declined to answer the question of whether or not the US and China are currently having trade negotiations. Trump says he’s talked to Xi while Chinese officials deny any talks have taken place. In addition, China announced a plan to lower the amount of grain used for livestock feed by 60%, including cutting soymeal use from 13% to 10% by 2030. Bessent also said the US is close to finalizing a trade deal with India. While India does not import US soybeans, they are the 5th largest importer of US soybean oil.
On Wednesday, soybeans slowly fell lower throughout the overnight session. The market tried to rebound early in the day session but faded again and closed with losses. Technical selling pressured the market. Slow demand and month end positioning added to the losses. On the tariff front, there were reports China is quietly removing some products from their 125% tariff list after asking companies what they need. Brazil’s export group lowered their estimate of April exports to 13.8 MMT, down 0.5 MMT from their prior estimate. The country exported 14.7 MMT in March and also exported 14.7 MMT last April. Argentina’s farmers are selling their soybeans at the slowest pace in 11 years due to weather delaying harvest and concerns about the exchange rate and export taxes.
Soybeans opened the session lower and extended session pressure throughout the night in Thursday’s session. Early selling was tied to forecasts for rain for the Corn Belt which has traders concerned that some corn acreage will switch back to soybeans. Light selling was also due to the lack of progress on trade talks. Soybeans were able to brush off the early pressure once the day session started. Early support was due to news out of China stating the US has reached out to China and is willing to get trade talks going. The fact that China is on holiday and closed until Tuesday added pressure. The Census Crush estimate was released Thursday afternoon. For the month of March 206.6 MB of soybeans were crushed vs expectation for 205.5 MB and vs 204 MB last year. This was a new record for the month.
Target $10.85 to advance sales.
For the week, May soybeans were at $10.4875 down 1.0 cent while July was at $10.58 down 1.25 cents. July soybean meal was at $296.90 down $1.60 and July soybean oil was at $49.43 down 38 cents.
For the month, May soybeans were up 20.0 cents while July soybeans were up 16.25 cents. May soybean meal was down $2.70 and May soybean oil was up $3.69.