Soybeans opened the week higher and added to the gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Support came from optimism about the upcoming Trump/Xi meeting on May 14-15 and expectations that China will buy US soybeans before the meeting as a goodwill gesture. Support also spilled over from the strong gains in the soybean oil and crude oil markets. Technical buying added to the gains. Last week’s export shipments were at the bottom of the range of trade expectations and a marketing year low.
Tuesday’s session saw small gains for the first half of the overnight session before turning lower. Losses accelerated in the day session and the market closed lower, erasing about half of yesterday’s gains. Pressure came from profit taking and technical selling. Spillover pressure came from the losses in the crude oil market. Dr Cordonnier expects to see 1 to 2 million acres of corn shift to soybeans this planting season due to planting delays and high fertilizer costs. USDA said errors in their oilseed crush report that was released on May 1 will be corrected in the June 1 report. USDA reported soybean oil production lower than the NOPA reported production, which is impossible as there are several crush plants that aren’t part of NOPA. StoneX increased their estimate of Brazil’s production by 1.9 MMT to 181.6 MMT while Dr Cordonnier increased his estimate by 1.0 MMT to 180.0 MMT.
Small gains were seen early in Tuesday’s overnight session before turning lower. The losses accelerated in the day session and the market closed solidly lower. Pressure came from the steep losses in the crude oil market on reports the US and Iran are close to a peace deal. Technical selling added pressure. Losses were limited by cool temps in much of the US and forecasts for below freezing temps in IA and MN this weekend. IGC estimates world 2026/27 soybean production at 441 MMT, up 13 MMT from the prior year.
To close out the week Thursday, soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged but were able to trim losses in the day session and close just a few cents lower. The back and forth in the market was due to traders trying to determine if the US and Iran will actually reach a peace deal. There were unconfirmed reports that Iran rejected the deal, which helped soybeans trim their losses. Last week’s export sales were disappointing with sales below the range of trade expectations at a marketing year low at just 5.2 MB. Losses were limited by optimism about next week’s Trump/Xi meeting as traders hope it will generate some Chinese soybean purchases.
Ahead of Tuesday’s report, the average trade estimate for 2025/26 ending stocks is 344 MB vs 350 MB last month while new crop ending stocks are estimated at 354 MB. The average trade estimate for the national soybean yield is 53.0 bu. and production at 4.444 BB.
The average trade estimate for Brazil’s production is 180.3 MMT vs 180.0 MMT last month and Argentina’s production at 48.4 MMT vs 48.0 MMT last month. World old crop ending stocks are estimated at 125.3 MMT vs 124.8 MMT last month and new crop ending stocks are estimated at 126.5 MMT.
Hedgers should look to advance new crop soybeans sales at $12.25 Nov.
July soybean support is $11.67. Nov soybean support is at $11.45.
For the week, July soybeans were at $12.08 up 4.75 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.895 up 6.75 cents. July soybean meal at $318.70 up 40 cents and July soybean oil was at $74.32 down 84 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments May 8
Soybean Weekly Comments May 8
Soybeans opened the week higher and added to the gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Support came from optimism about the upcoming Trump/Xi meeting on May 14-15 and expectations that China will buy US soybeans before the meeting as a goodwill gesture. Support also spilled over from the strong gains in the soybean oil and crude oil markets. Technical buying added to the gains. Last week’s export shipments were at the bottom of the range of trade expectations and a marketing year low.
Tuesday’s session saw small gains for the first half of the overnight session before turning lower. Losses accelerated in the day session and the market closed lower, erasing about half of yesterday’s gains. Pressure came from profit taking and technical selling. Spillover pressure came from the losses in the crude oil market. Dr Cordonnier expects to see 1 to 2 million acres of corn shift to soybeans this planting season due to planting delays and high fertilizer costs. USDA said errors in their oilseed crush report that was released on May 1 will be corrected in the June 1 report. USDA reported soybean oil production lower than the NOPA reported production, which is impossible as there are several crush plants that aren’t part of NOPA. StoneX increased their estimate of Brazil’s production by 1.9 MMT to 181.6 MMT while Dr Cordonnier increased his estimate by 1.0 MMT to 180.0 MMT.
Small gains were seen early in Tuesday’s overnight session before turning lower. The losses accelerated in the day session and the market closed solidly lower. Pressure came from the steep losses in the crude oil market on reports the US and Iran are close to a peace deal. Technical selling added pressure. Losses were limited by cool temps in much of the US and forecasts for below freezing temps in IA and MN this weekend. IGC estimates world 2026/27 soybean production at 441 MMT, up 13 MMT from the prior year.
To close out the week Thursday, soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged but were able to trim losses in the day session and close just a few cents lower. The back and forth in the market was due to traders trying to determine if the US and Iran will actually reach a peace deal. There were unconfirmed reports that Iran rejected the deal, which helped soybeans trim their losses. Last week’s export sales were disappointing with sales below the range of trade expectations at a marketing year low at just 5.2 MB. Losses were limited by optimism about next week’s Trump/Xi meeting as traders hope it will generate some Chinese soybean purchases.
Ahead of Tuesday’s report, the average trade estimate for 2025/26 ending stocks is 344 MB vs 350 MB last month while new crop ending stocks are estimated at 354 MB. The average trade estimate for the national soybean yield is 53.0 bu. and production at 4.444 BB.
The average trade estimate for Brazil’s production is 180.3 MMT vs 180.0 MMT last month and Argentina’s production at 48.4 MMT vs 48.0 MMT last month. World old crop ending stocks are estimated at 125.3 MMT vs 124.8 MMT last month and new crop ending stocks are estimated at 126.5 MMT.
Hedgers should look to advance new crop soybeans sales at $12.25 Nov.
July soybean support is $11.67. Nov soybean support is at $11.45.
For the week, July soybeans were at $12.08 up 4.75 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.895 up 6.75 cents. July soybean meal at $318.70 up 40 cents and July soybean oil was at $74.32 down 84 cents.