To start the week, soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and then added to the gains and closed with double-digit gains. Technical buying and optimism about China buying supported the market. Last week’s export shipments were at the bottom of the range of trade expectations. Marketing year-to-date shipments are 42% behind last year’s pace and the lowest in 16 years. Traders are watching for Chinese purchases to start showing up on the shipments report as there have been no export sales reports during the shutdown. There were no shipments to China in today’s report. In South American news, Brazil’s soybean planting is 60% complete vs. 60% average. The eastern part of the country saw widespread rains over the weekend.
Soybean opened Tuesday’s session lower and continued to trade with losses throughout the night and even throughout the day session. Early selling was tied to concerns that China will not follow throughout with the terms of the trade agreement. The main question is will China have the ability to get 12 MMT of soybeans purchased and shipped by Jan (which was part of the trade agreement). It is still workable, but that window of opportunity is fading fast. Assuming we have the ability to ship 1.5 MMT per week, it would take 8 weeks to ship that number of soybeans. There are roughly 12 weeks to the end of Jan, and three of those are holiday week (Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years).
The other issue is China’s updated monthly supply and demand tables released yesterday do not show the state purchasing 12 MMT of soybeans. Another concern, COFCO has signed contracts with Brazil for 20 MMT of oilseeds and other ag products. US was not mentioned. Dr Cordonnier left his production estimate for Brazil soybeans unchanged at 177 MMT. He is also estimating planting progress at 61% complete. Soybeans were able to trim session losses late in the session due to a round of technical buying which was triggered once soybeans traded to support.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans traded mostly higher overnight but turned lower late in the overnight session. But the market was able to get back on the positive side in the day session and close with decent gains. Support came from technical buying and positioning ahead of Friday’s report. Gains were limited by a report that said China has not made any US soybean purchases since the small goodwill purchases around the time the trade deal meeting between Trump and Xi. Hopefully, the House passes the CR and ends the shutdown so export sales reports can resume, and we can get a better handle what China has actually purchased. China reportedly has 10.3 MMT in soybean stocks at its ports and crushers are holding 7.5 MMT of soybeans (the most since 2017).
On Thursday soybean opened lower overnight but quickly turned higher and then added to the gains. The market continued to add to the gains in the day session and closed with double-digit gains and at new contract highs. Positioning ahead of tomorrow’s report and optimism that we’ll see strong export sales to China in tomorrow’s daily sales data dump supported soybeans. For the week ending 9/25/25, soybean export sales totaled 32.0 MB. USDA will release weekly reports twice a week until caught up. That is problematic for traders that want solid info on Chinese purchases. For example, without the shutdown, today’s report should have been for the week ending 11/6/25. But we won’t see that report until December 8. However, all daily reportable export sales (those over 100,000 MT to one destination) from Oct. 1 to Nov. 13 will be published tomorrow and that will clear up some of the uncertainty.
CONAB estimates Brazil’s new crop soybean production at 177.6 MMT vs. 171.5 MMT last year and USDA’s Sept. estimate of 175.0 MMT. Exports are expected to be 112.1 MMT, up 5% from this past year.
Soybeans Nov soybean support is $10.35.
For the week, January soybeans were at $11.245 up 7.5 cents, while March soybeans were at $11.36 up 10.25 cents. December soybean meal was at $322.50 up $5.40 and December soybean oil was at $50.15 up 47 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments November 14
Soybean Weekly Comments November 14
To start the week, soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and then added to the gains and closed with double-digit gains. Technical buying and optimism about China buying supported the market. Last week’s export shipments were at the bottom of the range of trade expectations. Marketing year-to-date shipments are 42% behind last year’s pace and the lowest in 16 years. Traders are watching for Chinese purchases to start showing up on the shipments report as there have been no export sales reports during the shutdown. There were no shipments to China in today’s report. In South American news, Brazil’s soybean planting is 60% complete vs. 60% average. The eastern part of the country saw widespread rains over the weekend.
Soybean opened Tuesday’s session lower and continued to trade with losses throughout the night and even throughout the day session. Early selling was tied to concerns that China will not follow throughout with the terms of the trade agreement. The main question is will China have the ability to get 12 MMT of soybeans purchased and shipped by Jan (which was part of the trade agreement). It is still workable, but that window of opportunity is fading fast. Assuming we have the ability to ship 1.5 MMT per week, it would take 8 weeks to ship that number of soybeans. There are roughly 12 weeks to the end of Jan, and three of those are holiday week (Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years).
The other issue is China’s updated monthly supply and demand tables released yesterday do not show the state purchasing 12 MMT of soybeans. Another concern, COFCO has signed contracts with Brazil for 20 MMT of oilseeds and other ag products. US was not mentioned. Dr Cordonnier left his production estimate for Brazil soybeans unchanged at 177 MMT. He is also estimating planting progress at 61% complete. Soybeans were able to trim session losses late in the session due to a round of technical buying which was triggered once soybeans traded to support.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans traded mostly higher overnight but turned lower late in the overnight session. But the market was able to get back on the positive side in the day session and close with decent gains. Support came from technical buying and positioning ahead of Friday’s report. Gains were limited by a report that said China has not made any US soybean purchases since the small goodwill purchases around the time the trade deal meeting between Trump and Xi. Hopefully, the House passes the CR and ends the shutdown so export sales reports can resume, and we can get a better handle what China has actually purchased. China reportedly has 10.3 MMT in soybean stocks at its ports and crushers are holding 7.5 MMT of soybeans (the most since 2017).
On Thursday soybean opened lower overnight but quickly turned higher and then added to the gains. The market continued to add to the gains in the day session and closed with double-digit gains and at new contract highs. Positioning ahead of tomorrow’s report and optimism that we’ll see strong export sales to China in tomorrow’s daily sales data dump supported soybeans. For the week ending 9/25/25, soybean export sales totaled 32.0 MB. USDA will release weekly reports twice a week until caught up. That is problematic for traders that want solid info on Chinese purchases. For example, without the shutdown, today’s report should have been for the week ending 11/6/25. But we won’t see that report until December 8. However, all daily reportable export sales (those over 100,000 MT to one destination) from Oct. 1 to Nov. 13 will be published tomorrow and that will clear up some of the uncertainty.
CONAB estimates Brazil’s new crop soybean production at 177.6 MMT vs. 171.5 MMT last year and USDA’s Sept. estimate of 175.0 MMT. Exports are expected to be 112.1 MMT, up 5% from this past year.
Soybeans Nov soybean support is $10.35.
For the week, January soybeans were at $11.245 up 7.5 cents, while March soybeans were at $11.36 up 10.25 cents. December soybean meal was at $322.50 up $5.40 and December soybean oil was at $50.15 up 47 cents.