To start the week, soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session but soon turned higher and saw small gains. The gains accelerated in the day session and the market closed sharply higher and erased all of Friday’s losses. On Friday USDA published a summary of flash sales from Oct. 1 to Nov. 13. There were only 332,000 MT of Chinese purchases. Then today USDA corrected that saying 100,000 MT were cancelled and the total was just 232,000 MT. But the market instead focused on President Trump saying he would personally be talking to China about buying US soybeans and that China would be buying “a lot of soybeans before spring.”
An impressive NOPA report added to Monday’s gains. October crush was reported at 227.6 MB, sharply higher than the average trade estimate of 209.5 MB and completely shattering the prior all-time record of 206.6 MB from Dec. 2024. Last week’s soybean shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Brazil and Argentina saw widespread rains over the weekend. Brazil’s soybean planting is 70% complete vs. 72% average.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans were mostly lower overnight, saw gains early in the day session before fading and closing with small losses. Monday’s strong gains were due in part to rumors of COFCO, a Chinese state owned company, buying anywhere from 6 to 14 cargoes of US soybeans. Today that was confirmed by USDA’s announcement of a sale of 792,000 MT of soybeans to China. But since the market priced that in yesterday, it didn’t move the market much. Profit taking after yesterday’s gains pulled the market lower. Losses were limited by the sharply higher soybean oil market, still seeing gains from Monday’s bullish NOPA crush report. USDA released the first crop progress report since the shutdown. Soybean harvest is estimated at 95% complete vs. 96% average.
Soybeans fell lower throughout Wednesday’s session and closed with double-digit losses. USDA reported a sale of 330,000 MT of soybeans to China. That’s in addition to Tuesday’s sale of 792,000 MT to China. But the strong gains in the soybean market on Monday were due to rumors of China making big purchases. These announcements just confirmed the rumors, so they didn’t move the market higher. Traders expect to see another sale announced tomorrow. Otherwise, there wasn’t much fresh news to move the market higher. Some parts of Brazil and Argentina are starting to get dry, but it’s early in the growing season. Both countries are still planting. A Brazilian oilseed group lowered their estimate of Brazil’s production form 178.5 MMT to 177.7 MMT, but that’s still quite a bit higher than last year’s estimate of 172.1 MMT. Informa is estimating soybeans 2026 planted acreage at 84.5 million vs 81.1 million this year.
On Thursday soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and closed with double-digit losses and closed lower for the 3rd session in a row. Technical selling and a lack of fresh news pulled soybeans lower. USDA reported a sale of 462,000 MT of soybeans to China. That brings the total soybean purchases since the Trump/Xi meeting to 1.8 MMT. Still a long way to go to hit 12 MMT by the end of December. USDA is releasing weekly export sales reports on a delayed basis due to the shutdown. For the week ending 10/2/25, marketing year-to-date soybean export sales total 470 MB vs. 735 MB at the same time last year and are the lowest in 17 years.
Soybean oil was pressured by reports the Trump administration is considering pushing back the implementation of limits on imported feedstock for biofuel production to 2027 or 2028. In South American news, another South American analyst group lowered their estimate of Brazil’s production from 180.9 MMT to 178.8 MMT, but that would still be higher than last year. Argentina’s soybean planting is 25% complete vs. 30% average.
Soybeans Nov soybean support is $10.35.
For the week, January soybeans were at $11.25 up 0.5 cent while March soybeans were at $11.3425 down 1.75 cents. December soybean meal was at $315.10 down $7.40 and December soybean oil was at $50.26 up 11 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments November 21
Soybean Weekly Comments November 21
To start the week, soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session but soon turned higher and saw small gains. The gains accelerated in the day session and the market closed sharply higher and erased all of Friday’s losses. On Friday USDA published a summary of flash sales from Oct. 1 to Nov. 13. There were only 332,000 MT of Chinese purchases. Then today USDA corrected that saying 100,000 MT were cancelled and the total was just 232,000 MT. But the market instead focused on President Trump saying he would personally be talking to China about buying US soybeans and that China would be buying “a lot of soybeans before spring.”
An impressive NOPA report added to Monday’s gains. October crush was reported at 227.6 MB, sharply higher than the average trade estimate of 209.5 MB and completely shattering the prior all-time record of 206.6 MB from Dec. 2024. Last week’s soybean shipments were in the range of trade expectations. Brazil and Argentina saw widespread rains over the weekend. Brazil’s soybean planting is 70% complete vs. 72% average.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans were mostly lower overnight, saw gains early in the day session before fading and closing with small losses. Monday’s strong gains were due in part to rumors of COFCO, a Chinese state owned company, buying anywhere from 6 to 14 cargoes of US soybeans. Today that was confirmed by USDA’s announcement of a sale of 792,000 MT of soybeans to China. But since the market priced that in yesterday, it didn’t move the market much. Profit taking after yesterday’s gains pulled the market lower. Losses were limited by the sharply higher soybean oil market, still seeing gains from Monday’s bullish NOPA crush report. USDA released the first crop progress report since the shutdown. Soybean harvest is estimated at 95% complete vs. 96% average.
Soybeans fell lower throughout Wednesday’s session and closed with double-digit losses. USDA reported a sale of 330,000 MT of soybeans to China. That’s in addition to Tuesday’s sale of 792,000 MT to China. But the strong gains in the soybean market on Monday were due to rumors of China making big purchases. These announcements just confirmed the rumors, so they didn’t move the market higher. Traders expect to see another sale announced tomorrow. Otherwise, there wasn’t much fresh news to move the market higher. Some parts of Brazil and Argentina are starting to get dry, but it’s early in the growing season. Both countries are still planting. A Brazilian oilseed group lowered their estimate of Brazil’s production form 178.5 MMT to 177.7 MMT, but that’s still quite a bit higher than last year’s estimate of 172.1 MMT. Informa is estimating soybeans 2026 planted acreage at 84.5 million vs 81.1 million this year.
On Thursday soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but fell lower throughout the day session and closed with double-digit losses and closed lower for the 3rd session in a row. Technical selling and a lack of fresh news pulled soybeans lower. USDA reported a sale of 462,000 MT of soybeans to China. That brings the total soybean purchases since the Trump/Xi meeting to 1.8 MMT. Still a long way to go to hit 12 MMT by the end of December. USDA is releasing weekly export sales reports on a delayed basis due to the shutdown. For the week ending 10/2/25, marketing year-to-date soybean export sales total 470 MB vs. 735 MB at the same time last year and are the lowest in 17 years.
Soybean oil was pressured by reports the Trump administration is considering pushing back the implementation of limits on imported feedstock for biofuel production to 2027 or 2028. In South American news, another South American analyst group lowered their estimate of Brazil’s production from 180.9 MMT to 178.8 MMT, but that would still be higher than last year. Argentina’s soybean planting is 25% complete vs. 30% average.
Soybeans Nov soybean support is $10.35.
For the week, January soybeans were at $11.25 up 0.5 cent while March soybeans were at $11.3425 down 1.75 cents. December soybean meal was at $315.10 down $7.40 and December soybean oil was at $50.26 up 11 cents.