Soybeans saw gains overnight and added to the gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Support came from rumors of China buying more US soybeans. Support also came from the White House’s release of a fact sheet on the trade deal with China. It stated that China will buy at least 12 MMT of US soybeans in the last 2 months of 2025. That cleared up confusion in the market as last week traders were unsure if the 12 MMT included the 5 MMT China had already purchased in calendar year 2025 for the 2024/25 marketing year. The fact sheet went on to state China will purchase at least 25 MMT of US soybeans in 2026, 2027, and 2028. And that China will suspend all retaliatory tariffs placed on US goods, including ag products. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 46% complete vs. 47% average.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans saw small losses overnight and added to the losses in the day session to close with double-digit losses and erased most of Monday’s gains. Profit taking was the main driver after the market hit highs not seen in over a year. Reports that China bought 10 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil for December shipment added pressure. With the recent rally in the soybean market, Brazil’s soybeans are now cheaper than US beans. Traders estimate US soybean harvest at 91% complete vs. 85% average. There have now been 5 weeks without the release of a crop progress report. StoneX lowered their estimate of the US soybean yield by 0.3 bu. to 53.6 bu. but increased their estimate of Brazil’s production by 0.2 MMT to 178.9 MMT.
Soybeans opened lower but quickly turned higher and added to the gains to close with strong gains on Wednesday. Support came from news that China lowered tariffs on US soybeans from 24% to 13%. However, that means Brazil’s soybeans are currently cheaper than US soybeans. Soybeans bought by state-owned companies such as Sinograin and COFCO do not pay any tariffs and will likely do the bulk of the buying of the 12 MMT China has supposedly agreed to purchase in the last two months of 2025 (unless China waives some of the remaining tariffs). These purchases will go into China’s reserves. There was some caution in the market as China has still not made any official comment on the pending trade deal with the US, and the deal has not been signed yet.
In Thursday’s session soybeans opened lower overnight and added to the losses. The losses continued to add on in the day session and the market closed sharply lower. Technical selling and trade uncertainly pressured the market. While the trade welcomed Wednesday’s news that China lowered soybean tariffs from 24% to 13%, Brazil’s beans are still cheaper than US beans. Chinese state-owned companies do not pay tariffs, but they have only purchased about 5% of the 12 MMT that the White House said will be purchases by the end of the year. The ongoing shutdown added pressure as we’re not seeing daily or weekly export sale reports and really don’t know how much China has been buying. China is also seeing lower crush margins and some large hog operations are reducing herd size due to lower demand. Chinese crushers have no incentive to buy US soybeans at this time.
Soybeans Nov soybean support is $10.35.
For the week, January soybeans were at $11.17 up 1.75 cents while March soybeans were at $11.2575 up 2.0 cents. December soybean meal was at $317.10 down $4.50 and December soybean oil was at $49.68 up $1.00.
Soybean Weekly Comments November 7
Soybean Weekly Comments November 7
Soybeans saw gains overnight and added to the gains in the day session to close with double-digit gains. Support came from rumors of China buying more US soybeans. Support also came from the White House’s release of a fact sheet on the trade deal with China. It stated that China will buy at least 12 MMT of US soybeans in the last 2 months of 2025. That cleared up confusion in the market as last week traders were unsure if the 12 MMT included the 5 MMT China had already purchased in calendar year 2025 for the 2024/25 marketing year. The fact sheet went on to state China will purchase at least 25 MMT of US soybeans in 2026, 2027, and 2028. And that China will suspend all retaliatory tariffs placed on US goods, including ag products. Brazil’s soybean planting is estimated at 46% complete vs. 47% average.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans saw small losses overnight and added to the losses in the day session to close with double-digit losses and erased most of Monday’s gains. Profit taking was the main driver after the market hit highs not seen in over a year. Reports that China bought 10 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil for December shipment added pressure. With the recent rally in the soybean market, Brazil’s soybeans are now cheaper than US beans. Traders estimate US soybean harvest at 91% complete vs. 85% average. There have now been 5 weeks without the release of a crop progress report. StoneX lowered their estimate of the US soybean yield by 0.3 bu. to 53.6 bu. but increased their estimate of Brazil’s production by 0.2 MMT to 178.9 MMT.
Soybeans opened lower but quickly turned higher and added to the gains to close with strong gains on Wednesday. Support came from news that China lowered tariffs on US soybeans from 24% to 13%. However, that means Brazil’s soybeans are currently cheaper than US soybeans. Soybeans bought by state-owned companies such as Sinograin and COFCO do not pay any tariffs and will likely do the bulk of the buying of the 12 MMT China has supposedly agreed to purchase in the last two months of 2025 (unless China waives some of the remaining tariffs). These purchases will go into China’s reserves. There was some caution in the market as China has still not made any official comment on the pending trade deal with the US, and the deal has not been signed yet.
In Thursday’s session soybeans opened lower overnight and added to the losses. The losses continued to add on in the day session and the market closed sharply lower. Technical selling and trade uncertainly pressured the market. While the trade welcomed Wednesday’s news that China lowered soybean tariffs from 24% to 13%, Brazil’s beans are still cheaper than US beans. Chinese state-owned companies do not pay tariffs, but they have only purchased about 5% of the 12 MMT that the White House said will be purchases by the end of the year. The ongoing shutdown added pressure as we’re not seeing daily or weekly export sale reports and really don’t know how much China has been buying. China is also seeing lower crush margins and some large hog operations are reducing herd size due to lower demand. Chinese crushers have no incentive to buy US soybeans at this time.
Soybeans Nov soybean support is $10.35.
For the week, January soybeans were at $11.17 up 1.75 cents while March soybeans were at $11.2575 up 2.0 cents. December soybean meal was at $317.10 down $4.50 and December soybean oil was at $49.68 up $1.00.