To start the week soybeans opened the session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher and continued to trade with small gains for the rest of the session. Early selling was tied to spill over sell from Friday’s rough session. Trade tension with China continues to be the main focus of traders’ attention as at this point it is not clear if Xi and Trump will meet in two weeks to discuss trade. Additional selling was tied to reports of good harvest progress. Losses were trimmed due to expectations that harvest is close to completion. Disappointing yield reports added support. Soybeans had a wet blanket thrown on them from news that China imported 12.87 MMT of soybeans in Sept vs 12.8 MMT in Aug and 11.37 MMT last year. This was the second highest all time monthly purchase of soybeans. Year to date China has bought 109.4 MMT of soybeans vs 104.7 MMT last year. As of Oct 10, Brazil is reporting soybean bean planting progress at 11% complete vs 9% last week and 10% average.
Soybeans traded mostly on the lower side in Tuesday’s choppy session and closed with minor losses. Pressure came from US/China trade tensions as both sides implemented ports fees today. Light support came from the export shipments report which put last week’s shipments at the top of the range of trade expectations and the highest of the marketing year. Late in the session technical buying trimmed the losses. Brazil is expected to see good rains over the next 5 days. CONAB slightly lowered their soybean production estimate for Brazil from 177.7 MMT to 177.6 MMT and vs. 171.5 MMT from last year. CONAB also sees soybean planted acres increasing 3.6% from last year to 121.1 million acres. While no crop progress report will be released this week, trade estimates have soybean harvest around 58% complete.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans traded back and forth in a 10-cent range but ended up where they started, closing unchanged. Uncertainty about US/China relations pressured the market as Trump posted on social media that China not purchasing US soybeans was a “economically hostile act” and threatened to stop US imports of Chinese used cooking oil (used for biofuel production). However, Treasury Sect. Bessent said the planned meeting between Trump and Xi at the end of the month is still on and that if China backs off on their rare earth export controls, the tariff truce could be extended again (which would be the 4th extension). The Sept. NOPA report helped soybeans trim their losses. Sept.’s crush came in at 197.9 MB, 20.6 MB higher than last Sept. and 11.6 MB higher than the average trade estimate. It also set a new record for the month of Sept. Soybean oil stocks were slightly higher than expected.
Soybeans saw small losses overnight and added to the gains in Thursday’s day session. The market faded later on in the day session but still closed with small gains. Technical buying supported soybeans. Rains in the forecast this weekend for Brazil added pressure. Brazilian soybeans are currently more expensive than US beans and China will need roughly 8 to 9 MMT for Dec/Jan shipment. Brazil is expected to be able to export new crop beans in late January. The question is whether China will purchase any beans from the US or if they will pull beans from their reserves for the Dec/Jan timeframe. It’s also possible that China could buy US soybeans as a good will gesture if the Trump/Xi meeting at the end of the month goes well.
Nov soybean support is $9.85.
For the week, November soybeans were at $10.195 up 12.75 cents while January soybeans were at $10.3675 up 13.5 cents. December soybean meal was at $281.00 up $6.00 and December soybean oil was at $51.13 up $1.16.
Soybean Weekly Comments October 17
Soybean Weekly Comments October 17
To start the week soybeans opened the session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher and continued to trade with small gains for the rest of the session. Early selling was tied to spill over sell from Friday’s rough session. Trade tension with China continues to be the main focus of traders’ attention as at this point it is not clear if Xi and Trump will meet in two weeks to discuss trade. Additional selling was tied to reports of good harvest progress. Losses were trimmed due to expectations that harvest is close to completion. Disappointing yield reports added support. Soybeans had a wet blanket thrown on them from news that China imported 12.87 MMT of soybeans in Sept vs 12.8 MMT in Aug and 11.37 MMT last year. This was the second highest all time monthly purchase of soybeans. Year to date China has bought 109.4 MMT of soybeans vs 104.7 MMT last year. As of Oct 10, Brazil is reporting soybean bean planting progress at 11% complete vs 9% last week and 10% average.
Soybeans traded mostly on the lower side in Tuesday’s choppy session and closed with minor losses. Pressure came from US/China trade tensions as both sides implemented ports fees today. Light support came from the export shipments report which put last week’s shipments at the top of the range of trade expectations and the highest of the marketing year. Late in the session technical buying trimmed the losses. Brazil is expected to see good rains over the next 5 days. CONAB slightly lowered their soybean production estimate for Brazil from 177.7 MMT to 177.6 MMT and vs. 171.5 MMT from last year. CONAB also sees soybean planted acres increasing 3.6% from last year to 121.1 million acres. While no crop progress report will be released this week, trade estimates have soybean harvest around 58% complete.
In Wednesday’s session soybeans traded back and forth in a 10-cent range but ended up where they started, closing unchanged. Uncertainty about US/China relations pressured the market as Trump posted on social media that China not purchasing US soybeans was a “economically hostile act” and threatened to stop US imports of Chinese used cooking oil (used for biofuel production). However, Treasury Sect. Bessent said the planned meeting between Trump and Xi at the end of the month is still on and that if China backs off on their rare earth export controls, the tariff truce could be extended again (which would be the 4th extension). The Sept. NOPA report helped soybeans trim their losses. Sept.’s crush came in at 197.9 MB, 20.6 MB higher than last Sept. and 11.6 MB higher than the average trade estimate. It also set a new record for the month of Sept. Soybean oil stocks were slightly higher than expected.
Soybeans saw small losses overnight and added to the gains in Thursday’s day session. The market faded later on in the day session but still closed with small gains. Technical buying supported soybeans. Rains in the forecast this weekend for Brazil added pressure. Brazilian soybeans are currently more expensive than US beans and China will need roughly 8 to 9 MMT for Dec/Jan shipment. Brazil is expected to be able to export new crop beans in late January. The question is whether China will purchase any beans from the US or if they will pull beans from their reserves for the Dec/Jan timeframe. It’s also possible that China could buy US soybeans as a good will gesture if the Trump/Xi meeting at the end of the month goes well.
Nov soybean support is $9.85.
For the week, November soybeans were at $10.195 up 12.75 cents while January soybeans were at $10.3675 up 13.5 cents. December soybean meal was at $281.00 up $6.00 and December soybean oil was at $51.13 up $1.16.