To start the week soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and held those gains overnight. The market added to the gains in the day session to close sharply higher and at levels not seen since June. Support came from news that the US and China agreed on a framework for a trade deal. Trump and Xi will meet on Thursday. Treasury Sect. Bessent said soybean farmers “will feel very good” about the deal as China “agreed on substantial agricultural purchases for US farmers.” Last week’s soybean export shipments were at the low end of the range of trade expectations, but no one cared due to the China news. Brazil’s soybean planting is 34% complete vs. 31% average.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans saw steady gains throughout the overnight and into the day session. The market did trim some of the gains late in the day session but still closed with double-digit gains. Soybeans are now at levels not seen since early October 2024. Trade optimism kept the rally going. News reports today indicated the US is considering cutting tariffs on China and the US and China agreed to reduce the port fees placed on each other. Analysts believe China needs to import somewhere between 5 to 10 MMT (184 to 367 MB) of soybeans short term. Traders would like to see China make a goodwill purchase after the Trump/Xi meeting on Thursday. Technical buying added to the gains. Dr. Cordonnier left his US soybean estimates unchanged with yield at 52.0 bu/acre and production at 4.17 BB. USDA’s most recent numbers from the Sept. report put the yield at 83.5 bu/acre and production at 4.3 BB.
Soybeans opened Wednesday’s session lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the opening of the day session. Early selling was tied to profit taking and the evening up of positions ahead of the big meeting. China was in overnight and bought US soybeans as a goodwill gesture ahead of the meeting, but traders were disappointing with the amount of soybeans as it was only 180 TMT.
Rumors are flying over the potential details of the trade agreement. For soybeans two amounts have been tossed out, either 20 to 30 MMT or 30 to 50 MMT but spread over 2 to 3 years. That would mean roughly China will be buying between 10 to 15 MMT of soybeans from the US per year, or roughly about 20 to 30% of their needs. Soybeans faded lower once the day session got under way due to more profit taking.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded back and forth in a wide range as news came out about the pending trade deal with China, but a lack of details on some aspects limited gains. Soybeans were able to end the session with double-digit gains. President Trump described his meeting with Xi as “amazing” and said China will immediately resume soybean purchases from the U.S. Treasury Sect. Bessent confirmed that China will buy 12 MMT (441 MB) “this season” (which the trade took to mean between now and January) and then purchase 25 MMT (918 MB) per year for the next 3 years. However, China’s Ministry of Commerce said the countries agreed to expand ag trade without giving any specifics.
The 918 MB target is higher than the past 2 marketing year totals in sales to China of 826 MB in 2024/25 and 897 MB in 2023/24 but considerably lower than then 1.33 BB sold to China in 2020/21 after the Phase 1 trade deal was signed. Bessent also said other countries in Asia have agreed to buy 19 MMT of US soybeans but did not provide a timeline for purchases or the countries involved.
Soybeans Nov soybean support is $10.35.
Last week’s soybean export shipments pace was estimated at 39.0 MB. After 8 weeks, soybean shipments were at 15% of USDA’s expectations vs. 21% last year. With 44 weeks left in soybeans’ export marketing year, shipments need to average 32.7 MB to make USDA’s projection of 1.685 BB.
For the week, November soybeans were at $10.9975 up 58.0 cents while January soybeans were at $11.1525 up 55.0 cents. December soybean meal was at $321.60 up $27.50 and December soybean oil was at $48.68 down $1.59.
For the month, November soybeans were up 98.0 cents while January soybeans were 95.0 cents. December soybean meal was up $43.70 and December soybean oil was down $1.16.
Soybean Weekly Comments October 31
Soybean Weekly Comments October 31
To start the week soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and held those gains overnight. The market added to the gains in the day session to close sharply higher and at levels not seen since June. Support came from news that the US and China agreed on a framework for a trade deal. Trump and Xi will meet on Thursday. Treasury Sect. Bessent said soybean farmers “will feel very good” about the deal as China “agreed on substantial agricultural purchases for US farmers.” Last week’s soybean export shipments were at the low end of the range of trade expectations, but no one cared due to the China news. Brazil’s soybean planting is 34% complete vs. 31% average.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans saw steady gains throughout the overnight and into the day session. The market did trim some of the gains late in the day session but still closed with double-digit gains. Soybeans are now at levels not seen since early October 2024. Trade optimism kept the rally going. News reports today indicated the US is considering cutting tariffs on China and the US and China agreed to reduce the port fees placed on each other. Analysts believe China needs to import somewhere between 5 to 10 MMT (184 to 367 MB) of soybeans short term. Traders would like to see China make a goodwill purchase after the Trump/Xi meeting on Thursday. Technical buying added to the gains. Dr. Cordonnier left his US soybean estimates unchanged with yield at 52.0 bu/acre and production at 4.17 BB. USDA’s most recent numbers from the Sept. report put the yield at 83.5 bu/acre and production at 4.3 BB.
Soybeans opened Wednesday’s session lower and extended session losses throughout the night and into the opening of the day session. Early selling was tied to profit taking and the evening up of positions ahead of the big meeting. China was in overnight and bought US soybeans as a goodwill gesture ahead of the meeting, but traders were disappointing with the amount of soybeans as it was only 180 TMT.
Rumors are flying over the potential details of the trade agreement. For soybeans two amounts have been tossed out, either 20 to 30 MMT or 30 to 50 MMT but spread over 2 to 3 years. That would mean roughly China will be buying between 10 to 15 MMT of soybeans from the US per year, or roughly about 20 to 30% of their needs. Soybeans faded lower once the day session got under way due to more profit taking.
In Thursday’s session soybeans traded back and forth in a wide range as news came out about the pending trade deal with China, but a lack of details on some aspects limited gains. Soybeans were able to end the session with double-digit gains. President Trump described his meeting with Xi as “amazing” and said China will immediately resume soybean purchases from the U.S. Treasury Sect. Bessent confirmed that China will buy 12 MMT (441 MB) “this season” (which the trade took to mean between now and January) and then purchase 25 MMT (918 MB) per year for the next 3 years. However, China’s Ministry of Commerce said the countries agreed to expand ag trade without giving any specifics.
The 918 MB target is higher than the past 2 marketing year totals in sales to China of 826 MB in 2024/25 and 897 MB in 2023/24 but considerably lower than then 1.33 BB sold to China in 2020/21 after the Phase 1 trade deal was signed. Bessent also said other countries in Asia have agreed to buy 19 MMT of US soybeans but did not provide a timeline for purchases or the countries involved.
Soybeans Nov soybean support is $10.35.
Last week’s soybean export shipments pace was estimated at 39.0 MB. After 8 weeks, soybean shipments were at 15% of USDA’s expectations vs. 21% last year. With 44 weeks left in soybeans’ export marketing year, shipments need to average 32.7 MB to make USDA’s projection of 1.685 BB.
For the week, November soybeans were at $10.9975 up 58.0 cents while January soybeans were at $11.1525 up 55.0 cents. December soybean meal was at $321.60 up $27.50 and December soybean oil was at $48.68 down $1.59.
For the month, November soybeans were up 98.0 cents while January soybeans were 95.0 cents. December soybean meal was up $43.70 and December soybean oil was down $1.16.