To start the week soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but found strength in the day session and closed with decent gains. Support spilled over from the gains in the crude oil market after the Houthis attacked a Saudi Arabian pipeline. Ideas that Friday’s post-report losses were overdone added support. Chinese President Xi is scheduled to travel to the US on Sept 24, but China threatened to cancel the trip of the US approves any new arms sales to Taiwan. Last week’s export shipments were slightly above the range of trade expectations. The crop progress report left the soybean crop rating unchanged at 58% g/e. Of the major states ND and SD saw the most deterioration with ND down 4% to 24% g/e and SD down 5% to 43% g/e. MN increased 1% to 57% g/e.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded lower overnight but got back on the positive side early in the day session. The market then continued to climb higher and closed with double-digit gains. Support spilled over from the strong gains in the crude oil market. Rumors of China buying US soybeans ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting next week added support. NOPA reported August crush at 205.5 MB, quite a bit lower than the average trade estimate of 211.6 MB. But crush did set a new record for the month, shattering the prior record of 189.8 MB set last year. Stocks also came in lower than expected at 1.201 billion pounds vs. the average trade estimate of 1.257 billion pounds. CONAB left their Brazilian production estimate unchanged at 180.4 MMT (in line with USDA’s current estimate of 180.5 MMT).
On Wednesday soybeans opened lower overnight but soon turned higher. The market saw the session high late in the overnight session but then fell lower for most of the day session only to change course and close with small gains. Day session pressure spilled over from the losses in the crude oil market. But technical buying late in the session pushed soybeans to the positive side. Optimism about continued China buying ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting on Sept 24 was also supportive. CONAB estimates Brazil’s planted soybean acres for the upcoming crop at 121.8 million, up 1.4% from last year, and production at 181.6 MMT, up 0.7% from last year. USDA has production estimated at 186.0 MMT.
In Thursday’s session soybeans climbed higher early in the overnight session and held most of the gains overnight. The day session saw losses, but soybeans were able to trim the losses late in the session and close just below unchanged. Pressure came from expectations of a big soybean crop as good yields are being reported in the Delta and MO. But losses were limited by optimism about the Trump/Xi meeting next Thursday as traders hope to see both countries remove the tariffs on each other. Last week’s export sales were in the middle of the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date sales at 758 MB are up 102% from the same week last year as China made no purchases early in the last marketing year.
Nov soybean support is at $12.15.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $13.035 up 7.0 cents while Jan soybeans were at $13.20 up 8.0 cents. Oct soybean meal at $354.60 up $7.80 and Oct soybean oil was at $67.70 down $1.49.
Soybean Weekly Comments September 18
Soybean Weekly Comments September 18
To start the week soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but found strength in the day session and closed with decent gains. Support spilled over from the gains in the crude oil market after the Houthis attacked a Saudi Arabian pipeline. Ideas that Friday’s post-report losses were overdone added support. Chinese President Xi is scheduled to travel to the US on Sept 24, but China threatened to cancel the trip of the US approves any new arms sales to Taiwan. Last week’s export shipments were slightly above the range of trade expectations. The crop progress report left the soybean crop rating unchanged at 58% g/e. Of the major states ND and SD saw the most deterioration with ND down 4% to 24% g/e and SD down 5% to 43% g/e. MN increased 1% to 57% g/e.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded lower overnight but got back on the positive side early in the day session. The market then continued to climb higher and closed with double-digit gains. Support spilled over from the strong gains in the crude oil market. Rumors of China buying US soybeans ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting next week added support. NOPA reported August crush at 205.5 MB, quite a bit lower than the average trade estimate of 211.6 MB. But crush did set a new record for the month, shattering the prior record of 189.8 MB set last year. Stocks also came in lower than expected at 1.201 billion pounds vs. the average trade estimate of 1.257 billion pounds. CONAB left their Brazilian production estimate unchanged at 180.4 MMT (in line with USDA’s current estimate of 180.5 MMT).
On Wednesday soybeans opened lower overnight but soon turned higher. The market saw the session high late in the overnight session but then fell lower for most of the day session only to change course and close with small gains. Day session pressure spilled over from the losses in the crude oil market. But technical buying late in the session pushed soybeans to the positive side. Optimism about continued China buying ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting on Sept 24 was also supportive. CONAB estimates Brazil’s planted soybean acres for the upcoming crop at 121.8 million, up 1.4% from last year, and production at 181.6 MMT, up 0.7% from last year. USDA has production estimated at 186.0 MMT.
In Thursday’s session soybeans climbed higher early in the overnight session and held most of the gains overnight. The day session saw losses, but soybeans were able to trim the losses late in the session and close just below unchanged. Pressure came from expectations of a big soybean crop as good yields are being reported in the Delta and MO. But losses were limited by optimism about the Trump/Xi meeting next Thursday as traders hope to see both countries remove the tariffs on each other. Last week’s export sales were in the middle of the range of trade expectations. Marketing year to date sales at 758 MB are up 102% from the same week last year as China made no purchases early in the last marketing year.
Nov soybean support is at $12.15.
For the week, Nov soybeans were at $13.035 up 7.0 cents while Jan soybeans were at $13.20 up 8.0 cents. Oct soybean meal at $354.60 up $7.80 and Oct soybean oil was at $67.70 down $1.49.