Soybeans gapped higher at the start of the week and stayed on the positive side until midway through the day session. The market closed with small losses in old crop and small gains in the new crop contracts. Spillover support from the sharply higher crude oil market pulled soybean higher overnight. Day session pressure came from profit taking and the Trump administration downplaying the Trump/Xi meeting at the end of the month, saying it’s unlikely any major breakthroughs will happen. The last daily export sales announcement about a Chinese soybean purchase was a month ago. As of Friday, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 48% complete vs. 54% average as heavy rains continue to slow harvest pace.
Tuesday’s session might have had soybeans gapping lower at the start of the overnight session but that was the last time for the week (ending Thursday) that soybeans traded in the red as soybeans were able to get back on the positive side in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from reports US and Chinese officials will meet this weekend ahead of President Trump’s visit to China at the end of the month.
Only minor changes were made to soybeans in today’s USDA report. Imports were increased by 5 MB but that was offset by a 5 MB increase in crush, leaving US ending stocks unchanged at 350 MB (3 MB higher than expected). The national average price was left unchanged at $10.20.
For South America, Brazil’s production was left unchanged at 180.0 MMT (however, the trade expected to see a cut of 0.8 MMT). Argentina’s production was cut 0.5 MMT to 48.0 MMT (as expected). World ending stocks came in at 125.3 MMT, 0.2 MMT lower than last month but 0.5 MMT higher than expected.
Buying continued to help soybean gap higher on Wednesday and added to the gains. The market trimmed some of the gains late in the session but still closed with strong gains. Support came from rumors of friendly numbers in a leak of EPA’s biodiesel blending mandates. The gains in the crude market and more rain in the forecasts for Brazil added support. Top US and Chinese officials will meet in Paris for talks ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting at the end of the month. Chinese officials are reportedly frustrated with the US’s lack of planning for the Trump/Xi meeting and would like to see details finalized at the Paris meeting. Brazil is expected to export 16.47 MMT of soybeans in March, beating last year’s 14.68 MMT and setting a new record for the month.
To close out the week ending Thursday, soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and then added to the gains. The market pulled back late in the session but still closed with double-digit gains in the old crop months and smaller gains in the new crop contracts. As has been the pattern since the conflict with Iran began, soybeans followed the sharply higher crude oil market. Support also came from reports that China requested that Brazil adopt stricter standards for weed and pest checks. Cargill has currently paused their shipments from Brazil to China due to those changes and this may be an opening for more US beans going to China. Rosario Grains Exchange left their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop unchanged at 48 MMT due to above average rains in February. Last week’s export sales were in the range of trade expectations.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $12.2225 up 24.5 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.615 up 14.75 cents. May soybean meal was at $322.70 up $5.50 and May soybean oil was at $67.44 up 86 cents.
Soybeans Weekly Comments March 13
Soybeans Weekly Comments March 13
Soybeans gapped higher at the start of the week and stayed on the positive side until midway through the day session. The market closed with small losses in old crop and small gains in the new crop contracts. Spillover support from the sharply higher crude oil market pulled soybean higher overnight. Day session pressure came from profit taking and the Trump administration downplaying the Trump/Xi meeting at the end of the month, saying it’s unlikely any major breakthroughs will happen. The last daily export sales announcement about a Chinese soybean purchase was a month ago. As of Friday, Brazil’s soybean harvest is 48% complete vs. 54% average as heavy rains continue to slow harvest pace.
Tuesday’s session might have had soybeans gapping lower at the start of the overnight session but that was the last time for the week (ending Thursday) that soybeans traded in the red as soybeans were able to get back on the positive side in the day session and closed with small gains. Support came from reports US and Chinese officials will meet this weekend ahead of President Trump’s visit to China at the end of the month.
Only minor changes were made to soybeans in today’s USDA report. Imports were increased by 5 MB but that was offset by a 5 MB increase in crush, leaving US ending stocks unchanged at 350 MB (3 MB higher than expected). The national average price was left unchanged at $10.20.
For South America, Brazil’s production was left unchanged at 180.0 MMT (however, the trade expected to see a cut of 0.8 MMT). Argentina’s production was cut 0.5 MMT to 48.0 MMT (as expected). World ending stocks came in at 125.3 MMT, 0.2 MMT lower than last month but 0.5 MMT higher than expected.
Buying continued to help soybean gap higher on Wednesday and added to the gains. The market trimmed some of the gains late in the session but still closed with strong gains. Support came from rumors of friendly numbers in a leak of EPA’s biodiesel blending mandates. The gains in the crude market and more rain in the forecasts for Brazil added support. Top US and Chinese officials will meet in Paris for talks ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting at the end of the month. Chinese officials are reportedly frustrated with the US’s lack of planning for the Trump/Xi meeting and would like to see details finalized at the Paris meeting. Brazil is expected to export 16.47 MMT of soybeans in March, beating last year’s 14.68 MMT and setting a new record for the month.
To close out the week ending Thursday, soybeans gapped higher at the start of the overnight session and then added to the gains. The market pulled back late in the session but still closed with double-digit gains in the old crop months and smaller gains in the new crop contracts. As has been the pattern since the conflict with Iran began, soybeans followed the sharply higher crude oil market. Support also came from reports that China requested that Brazil adopt stricter standards for weed and pest checks. Cargill has currently paused their shipments from Brazil to China due to those changes and this may be an opening for more US beans going to China. Rosario Grains Exchange left their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop unchanged at 48 MMT due to above average rains in February. Last week’s export sales were in the range of trade expectations.
May soybean support is $11.35.
For the week, May soybeans were at $12.2225 up 24.5 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.615 up 14.75 cents. May soybean meal was at $322.70 up $5.50 and May soybean oil was at $67.44 up 86 cents.