Soybeans started the week lower. Early selling was tied to harvest pressure as most regions in the US saw good weather conditions that should have helped advance harvest progress. Light selling was tied to reports that China is going to be on Golden Week starting Oct 1 to Oct 8, which means there will be little to no progress on trade talks during the first week of Oct. Light selling was also tied to the evening up of positions ahead of end of month and end of quarter. As of Sept 26, Brazil is reporting soybean planting progress at 4% complete vs 1% last week and vs 3% average. Trading movement was kept in check by thin light trading. Light activity was focused on position squaring ahead of Tuesday.
Selling continued in the soybean complex on Tuesday. Pressure was tied to demand concerns as China remains absent from the US export game, and likely will remain absent until either a trade deal is signed, or tariffs are eliminated. Harvest pressure and position squaring ahead of USDA’s reports and end of month and quarter was also evident.
USDA’s reports were not as negative for soybeans. Stocks were estimated at 316 MB, 7 MB below expectations, 14 MB below last month, and 26 MB below last year. According to the report, 91.5 MB of soybeans are still on farm while 225 MB are off farm. IA is again the leading state holding soybeans at 57 MB.
The 2024 revised crop production estimate for soybeans came in at 4.375 BB, 8 MB above expectations and 8 MB above last month. The net result that USDA will have to address in the Oct Crop Production report will be an 8 MB increase in production and a 14 MB decrease in stocks.
Technically soybeans are flirting with strong support at the $10 level. If they break that level, look for a test of the old low.
Hang over from Tuesday’s report hampered the soybean complex early in the session. Pressure was tied to technical selling and demand concerns. Light pressure came from the government shutdown as that will result in little to no news to give traders direction. Improving weather conditions and harvest pressure added selling. But soon after midsession soybeans were able to bounce off support and push higher. A statement from Trump saying the China’s President Xi and Trump will be meeting in 4 weeks and the main topic of the meeting will be soybeans helped soybeans rally higher. BAGE is estimating Argentina’s 2025 soybean crop at 48.5 MMT vs 50.3 MMT last year. China is on holiday starting today through Oct 8.
Wednesday’s strong closing spilled over to help soybeans start the session steady and continued to help soybeans gain momentum throughout the session. Talk of soybeans being the main focus of discussion when Trump and Xi meet in 4 weeks and rumors of a substantial aid package being announced for producer’s next week, kept a floor under the soybean complex. The lack of news due to the government shutdown added pressure, but soybeans were able to brush that off and stage a decent rally once the day session started. Early selling was due to the lack of news as both the export sales report and crush report were cancelled this week. Technical buying and reports of disappointing yields added support. StoneX released their recent soybean yield last night. Soybeans yield increased to 53.9 bus vs 53.2 bus previously.
Nov soybean support is $9.85.
As of Sept. 28, dropping leaves were at 79% vs. 61% last week and 77% average. Harvest was 19% vs. 9% last week and vs 20% average. The soybean crop condition rating increased 1% to 62% g/e, 27% fair, and 11% p/vp.
Last week’s soybean export shipments pace was estimated at 21.8 MB. After 4 weeks, soybean shipments were at 5% of USDA’s expectations vs. 4% last year. With 48 weeks left in soybean’s export marketing year, shipments need to average 33.4 MB to make USDA’s projection of 1.685 BB.
For the week, November soybeans were at $10.18 up 4.25 cents while January soybeans were at $10.37 up 4.0 cents. December soybean meal was at $278.60 up $4.00 and December soybean oil was at $50.05 down 14 cents.
Soybeans Weekly Comments Oct 3
Soybeans Weekly Comments Oct 3
Soybeans started the week lower. Early selling was tied to harvest pressure as most regions in the US saw good weather conditions that should have helped advance harvest progress. Light selling was tied to reports that China is going to be on Golden Week starting Oct 1 to Oct 8, which means there will be little to no progress on trade talks during the first week of Oct. Light selling was also tied to the evening up of positions ahead of end of month and end of quarter. As of Sept 26, Brazil is reporting soybean planting progress at 4% complete vs 1% last week and vs 3% average. Trading movement was kept in check by thin light trading. Light activity was focused on position squaring ahead of Tuesday.
Selling continued in the soybean complex on Tuesday. Pressure was tied to demand concerns as China remains absent from the US export game, and likely will remain absent until either a trade deal is signed, or tariffs are eliminated. Harvest pressure and position squaring ahead of USDA’s reports and end of month and quarter was also evident.
USDA’s reports were not as negative for soybeans. Stocks were estimated at 316 MB, 7 MB below expectations, 14 MB below last month, and 26 MB below last year. According to the report, 91.5 MB of soybeans are still on farm while 225 MB are off farm. IA is again the leading state holding soybeans at 57 MB.
The 2024 revised crop production estimate for soybeans came in at 4.375 BB, 8 MB above expectations and 8 MB above last month. The net result that USDA will have to address in the Oct Crop Production report will be an 8 MB increase in production and a 14 MB decrease in stocks.
Technically soybeans are flirting with strong support at the $10 level. If they break that level, look for a test of the old low.
Hang over from Tuesday’s report hampered the soybean complex early in the session. Pressure was tied to technical selling and demand concerns. Light pressure came from the government shutdown as that will result in little to no news to give traders direction. Improving weather conditions and harvest pressure added selling. But soon after midsession soybeans were able to bounce off support and push higher. A statement from Trump saying the China’s President Xi and Trump will be meeting in 4 weeks and the main topic of the meeting will be soybeans helped soybeans rally higher. BAGE is estimating Argentina’s 2025 soybean crop at 48.5 MMT vs 50.3 MMT last year. China is on holiday starting today through Oct 8.
Wednesday’s strong closing spilled over to help soybeans start the session steady and continued to help soybeans gain momentum throughout the session. Talk of soybeans being the main focus of discussion when Trump and Xi meet in 4 weeks and rumors of a substantial aid package being announced for producer’s next week, kept a floor under the soybean complex. The lack of news due to the government shutdown added pressure, but soybeans were able to brush that off and stage a decent rally once the day session started. Early selling was due to the lack of news as both the export sales report and crush report were cancelled this week. Technical buying and reports of disappointing yields added support. StoneX released their recent soybean yield last night. Soybeans yield increased to 53.9 bus vs 53.2 bus previously.
Nov soybean support is $9.85.
As of Sept. 28, dropping leaves were at 79% vs. 61% last week and 77% average. Harvest was 19% vs. 9% last week and vs 20% average. The soybean crop condition rating increased 1% to 62% g/e, 27% fair, and 11% p/vp.
Last week’s soybean export shipments pace was estimated at 21.8 MB. After 4 weeks, soybean shipments were at 5% of USDA’s expectations vs. 4% last year. With 48 weeks left in soybean’s export marketing year, shipments need to average 33.4 MB to make USDA’s projection of 1.685 BB.
For the week, November soybeans were at $10.18 up 4.25 cents while January soybeans were at $10.37 up 4.0 cents. December soybean meal was at $278.60 up $4.00 and December soybean oil was at $50.05 down 14 cents.