Wheat pushed higher for two sessions this week, but that also means wheat posted losses in two sessions for the week ending Thursday. Trouble was the losing session way outweighed the stronger session.
Wheat started the week trading mixed with MW higher while the winter wheat exchanges started lower. Support spilled over from the sharply higher crude oil market during the night session. But wheat followed corn and soybean lower in the day session. Last week’s export shipments were just above the range of trade expectations. Seven million bushels were shipped to China, the first shipment to the country in 3 months. Ukraine estimates this year’s wheat crop at 20.0 MMT vs. 23.2 MMT last year. Spring planted is expected to be delayed for 2 weeks due to cold temps.
Tuesday’s session saw wheat gap lower right out of the gate. Most of the losses were trimmed early in the day session but then faded again and closed with double-digit losses. Technical selling and the losses in the crude oil markets pressured wheat. Updated winter wheat condition ratings were mixed. KS dropped 2% to 56% g/e, but that is still the highest rating at this time in 20 years. OK increased 5% to 24% g/e and TX was left unchanged at 16% g/e. Both OK and TX ratings are at their lowest since 2022.
The March USDA report was largely a nonevent for wheat. US ending stocks were left unchanged at 931 MB (but that was 9 MB more than expected). No balance sheet changes were made but the national average price was increased 5 cents to $4.95.
World ending stocks were lowered by 0.5 MMT to 277.0 MMT (as expected). Australia’s production was lowered by 1.0 MMT to 36.0 MMT and Ukraine’s was increased 1.0 MMT to 24.0 MMT.
Buying returned to the wheat exchanges midweek. The wheat market bounced back from Tuesday’s double-digit losses and closed with small gains. Support came from the higher crude oil market and speculative buying. Concerns of dry conditions in the Southern Plains added support. A Ukrainian farm group estimates 7% to 8% of their winter wheat crop was damaged over the winter vs. the official government estimate of 5%. Taiwan tendered for 105,000 MT of US milling wheat while Korea bought 32,000 MT of US milling wheat.
Wheat ended the week mixed with MW slipping lower while Chicago and KC remained steady to firm. Wheat opened the session mixed with Mpls steady while both winter wheat exchanges gapped higher on the opening. Early support continued to come from increased war tensions in the Middle East. Although the major war might be slowing down, the side conflicts continue to rise with reports of bomb filled boats running into vessels in the Persian Gulf. Last week’s wheat export sales pace came in at the top of expectations, which added support. Rosario Grain is now estimating Argentina’s wheat crop at 29.5 MMT vs 20.1 MMT last year. EU officials are estimating soft wheat production at 128.6 MMT vs 128.3 MMT previously.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.455 up 2.5 cents, May Chicago was at $6.1375 down 3.0 cents, May KC was at $6.30 up 6.5 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments
Wheat Weekly Comments
Wheat pushed higher for two sessions this week, but that also means wheat posted losses in two sessions for the week ending Thursday. Trouble was the losing session way outweighed the stronger session.
Wheat started the week trading mixed with MW higher while the winter wheat exchanges started lower. Support spilled over from the sharply higher crude oil market during the night session. But wheat followed corn and soybean lower in the day session. Last week’s export shipments were just above the range of trade expectations. Seven million bushels were shipped to China, the first shipment to the country in 3 months. Ukraine estimates this year’s wheat crop at 20.0 MMT vs. 23.2 MMT last year. Spring planted is expected to be delayed for 2 weeks due to cold temps.
Tuesday’s session saw wheat gap lower right out of the gate. Most of the losses were trimmed early in the day session but then faded again and closed with double-digit losses. Technical selling and the losses in the crude oil markets pressured wheat. Updated winter wheat condition ratings were mixed. KS dropped 2% to 56% g/e, but that is still the highest rating at this time in 20 years. OK increased 5% to 24% g/e and TX was left unchanged at 16% g/e. Both OK and TX ratings are at their lowest since 2022.
The March USDA report was largely a nonevent for wheat. US ending stocks were left unchanged at 931 MB (but that was 9 MB more than expected). No balance sheet changes were made but the national average price was increased 5 cents to $4.95.
World ending stocks were lowered by 0.5 MMT to 277.0 MMT (as expected). Australia’s production was lowered by 1.0 MMT to 36.0 MMT and Ukraine’s was increased 1.0 MMT to 24.0 MMT.
Buying returned to the wheat exchanges midweek. The wheat market bounced back from Tuesday’s double-digit losses and closed with small gains. Support came from the higher crude oil market and speculative buying. Concerns of dry conditions in the Southern Plains added support. A Ukrainian farm group estimates 7% to 8% of their winter wheat crop was damaged over the winter vs. the official government estimate of 5%. Taiwan tendered for 105,000 MT of US milling wheat while Korea bought 32,000 MT of US milling wheat.
Wheat ended the week mixed with MW slipping lower while Chicago and KC remained steady to firm. Wheat opened the session mixed with Mpls steady while both winter wheat exchanges gapped higher on the opening. Early support continued to come from increased war tensions in the Middle East. Although the major war might be slowing down, the side conflicts continue to rise with reports of bomb filled boats running into vessels in the Persian Gulf. Last week’s wheat export sales pace came in at the top of expectations, which added support. Rosario Grain is now estimating Argentina’s wheat crop at 29.5 MMT vs 20.1 MMT last year. EU officials are estimating soft wheat production at 128.6 MMT vs 128.3 MMT previously.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.455 up 2.5 cents, May Chicago was at $6.1375 down 3.0 cents, May KC was at $6.30 up 6.5 cents.