WHEAT
The wheat exchanges started the week on the defense, spending most of the session on the lower side. KC saw the largest losses. Pressure came from weekend rains throughout the winter wheat areas. Significant rains fell in IL, IN, and OH. Good rains fell over the eastern 2/3 of OK and the eastern half of TX. KS did miss out on the rain. Another system is expected to bring rain to OK, TX, and most of KS next weekend. Last week’s export shipments were disappointing. Shipments were at the bottom of the range of trade expectations and the lowest of the last 9 weeks. Over the weekend Russia claimed Ukraine sank a Russian ship carrying wheat.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to higher but faded to post small losses throughout the overnight. A mixed performance came into play once the day session got under way with winter wheat seeing a mixed to slightly higher performance while spring wheat continued to trade with small losses. Uncertainty on the Iran war was the main driver. Winter wheat was supported by Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which shows a poorer than expected crop. Light support was due to weather forecasts calling for little to no rain for the Southern Plains winter wheat region.
Heavy selling hit the wheat market on Wednesday with all three wheat exchanges gapping lower on the opening and extended pressure throughout the session. Early selling was tied to news that the US has accepted the 2-week ceasefire deal with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz opening up is stipulation of the ceasefire, and until vessels are flowing through the Strait on a regular basis, the ceasefire won’t hold much water. Selling was also tied to weather forecasts calling for rain in the Southern Plains. All three forecasts, the 1 to 5 day, 6 to 10 day, and 11 to 15 day, have some form of rain in their forecast for the HRW wheat region. Technically wheat has slipped to a major support line. It will be important that lows hold, or wheat could see another leg down.
Report day had wheat opening mixed, but wheat managed to shake off early selling pressure to bounce and trade with small gains throughout the night session. Uncertainty in the Middle East helped to give wheat strength as it appears that the ceasefire with Iran is not being honored. A slight change in the weather forecasts added support.
Selling returned close to the report’s press time and the resulting negative report helped selling pressure expand throughout the day. The April Crop Production report was negative wheat on face value as US stocks increased 7 MB to 938 MB (18 MB above expectations). The big change was a 5 MB increase in imports (durum) and a 1 MB decrease in seed demand. The national average price for wheat increased 5 cents, to $5.00.
World wheat stocks were also negative, coming in at 283.1 MMT, up 6.1 MMT from expectations and last month. The increase was due to a slowdown in India’s domestic demand (stocks were increased 4.8 MMT).
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.115 down 35.25 cents, May Chicago was at $5.71 down 27.25 cents, May KC was at $5.9075 down 25.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments April 10
Wheat Weekly Comments April 10
WHEAT
The wheat exchanges started the week on the defense, spending most of the session on the lower side. KC saw the largest losses. Pressure came from weekend rains throughout the winter wheat areas. Significant rains fell in IL, IN, and OH. Good rains fell over the eastern 2/3 of OK and the eastern half of TX. KS did miss out on the rain. Another system is expected to bring rain to OK, TX, and most of KS next weekend. Last week’s export shipments were disappointing. Shipments were at the bottom of the range of trade expectations and the lowest of the last 9 weeks. Over the weekend Russia claimed Ukraine sank a Russian ship carrying wheat.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to higher but faded to post small losses throughout the overnight. A mixed performance came into play once the day session got under way with winter wheat seeing a mixed to slightly higher performance while spring wheat continued to trade with small losses. Uncertainty on the Iran war was the main driver. Winter wheat was supported by Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which shows a poorer than expected crop. Light support was due to weather forecasts calling for little to no rain for the Southern Plains winter wheat region.
Heavy selling hit the wheat market on Wednesday with all three wheat exchanges gapping lower on the opening and extended pressure throughout the session. Early selling was tied to news that the US has accepted the 2-week ceasefire deal with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz opening up is stipulation of the ceasefire, and until vessels are flowing through the Strait on a regular basis, the ceasefire won’t hold much water. Selling was also tied to weather forecasts calling for rain in the Southern Plains. All three forecasts, the 1 to 5 day, 6 to 10 day, and 11 to 15 day, have some form of rain in their forecast for the HRW wheat region. Technically wheat has slipped to a major support line. It will be important that lows hold, or wheat could see another leg down.
Report day had wheat opening mixed, but wheat managed to shake off early selling pressure to bounce and trade with small gains throughout the night session. Uncertainty in the Middle East helped to give wheat strength as it appears that the ceasefire with Iran is not being honored. A slight change in the weather forecasts added support.
Selling returned close to the report’s press time and the resulting negative report helped selling pressure expand throughout the day. The April Crop Production report was negative wheat on face value as US stocks increased 7 MB to 938 MB (18 MB above expectations). The big change was a 5 MB increase in imports (durum) and a 1 MB decrease in seed demand. The national average price for wheat increased 5 cents, to $5.00.
World wheat stocks were also negative, coming in at 283.1 MMT, up 6.1 MMT from expectations and last month. The increase was due to a slowdown in India’s domestic demand (stocks were increased 4.8 MMT).
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.115 down 35.25 cents, May Chicago was at $5.71 down 27.25 cents, May KC was at $5.9075 down 25.0 cents.