To start the week wheat opened the session mixed with Chicago higher while Mpls and KC started on the defense. By the end of the night session the roles had reversed with Mpls and KC firm while Chicago struggled. The overnight trading ranges were large with wheat seeing an over 10 cent range. Early support came from technical buying as most traders feel the market has more than priced in the tariff concerns and now it’s time to start trading news. Heavy rains have plagued a majority of the SRW wheat region and eastern edges of the HRW wheat area, bring flooding to a majority of the Ohio River Valley. And not to be left out, the western regions of the winter wheat region reported freezing temps overnight. Argus Media is estimating Ukraine’s wheat production for 2025 at 23.7 MMT vs USDA projection of 23.4 MMT, which is up 6% from last year and the largest wheat production estimate in 4 years.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was slightly higher. Technical buying and bottom picking added support as traders try to transition from tariff news to production news. Weather added support as the market tries to assess the damage from the past week’s heavy rain and flooding as well as price in the forecast calling for warmer drier conditions for the Southern Plains over the next 7 to 10 days.
On Wednesday wheat opened mixed with Mpls and Chicago lower while KC started with gains. Early support for KC came from weather concerns as forecasts call for hot dry conditions to dominate the Southern Plains for the next 7 to 10 days. And after seeing freezing temps last weekend, that is not the best forecast. Technical buying added support, but tariff concerns and news China and the US are in a bidding war to see who can increase tariffs the most kept gains in check. Wheat found strength late in the session from reports of a potential 90-day pause on tariffs for non-retaliating countries. Light support was also due to reports of a hailstorm that had moved across Russia impacting about 8% of the wheat acreage. Position squaring ahead of Thursday’s report added pressure.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session with each wheat exchange going in its own direction. Mpls wheat was lower, Chicago higher and KC steady. But it did not take long for the strength from the other grains to push wheat into the black. Early support spilled over from the higher corn and soybean complex. Light support was also due to last-minute position squaring ahead of today’s report. Weather forecasts added support. Forecasts are calling for hot and dry conditions to dominate the Southern Plains over the next 7 to 10 days, which will result in further production concerns. CBOT has also declared a condition of Forced Majeure along the Ohio River due to the recent flooding.
Thursday’s report for wheat was slightly negative as USDA increased wheat stocks more than expected. USDA made no changes to the 2023 crop year. For the 2024 crop year, USDA increased imports by 10 MB (1 MB HRW, 5 MB HRS, 2 MB WW, and 2 MB Durum). Seed demand was trimmed 2 MB. Exports were cut by 15 MB. The net result for wheat stocks increased 27 MB to 846 MB, 23 MB above expectations.
On the world side, stocks were estimated at 260.7 MMT, 200.0 TMT above expectations and 600 TMT above last month. The biggest surprise in the world numbers was a 3.0 MMT decrease in China imports which resulted in China’s stocks to drop 2.0 MMT.
The CME will launch their hard red spring wheat contract on April 14. This will be in competition with the MIAX spring wheat contract (the old MGEX).
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, May Mpls was at $6.15 up 30.5 cents, May Chicago was at $5.5575 up 26.75 cents, May KC was at $5.68 up 10.5 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments April 11
Wheat Weekly Comments April 11
To start the week wheat opened the session mixed with Chicago higher while Mpls and KC started on the defense. By the end of the night session the roles had reversed with Mpls and KC firm while Chicago struggled. The overnight trading ranges were large with wheat seeing an over 10 cent range. Early support came from technical buying as most traders feel the market has more than priced in the tariff concerns and now it’s time to start trading news. Heavy rains have plagued a majority of the SRW wheat region and eastern edges of the HRW wheat area, bring flooding to a majority of the Ohio River Valley. And not to be left out, the western regions of the winter wheat region reported freezing temps overnight. Argus Media is estimating Ukraine’s wheat production for 2025 at 23.7 MMT vs USDA projection of 23.4 MMT, which is up 6% from last year and the largest wheat production estimate in 4 years.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was slightly higher. Technical buying and bottom picking added support as traders try to transition from tariff news to production news. Weather added support as the market tries to assess the damage from the past week’s heavy rain and flooding as well as price in the forecast calling for warmer drier conditions for the Southern Plains over the next 7 to 10 days.
On Wednesday wheat opened mixed with Mpls and Chicago lower while KC started with gains. Early support for KC came from weather concerns as forecasts call for hot dry conditions to dominate the Southern Plains for the next 7 to 10 days. And after seeing freezing temps last weekend, that is not the best forecast. Technical buying added support, but tariff concerns and news China and the US are in a bidding war to see who can increase tariffs the most kept gains in check. Wheat found strength late in the session from reports of a potential 90-day pause on tariffs for non-retaliating countries. Light support was also due to reports of a hailstorm that had moved across Russia impacting about 8% of the wheat acreage. Position squaring ahead of Thursday’s report added pressure.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session with each wheat exchange going in its own direction. Mpls wheat was lower, Chicago higher and KC steady. But it did not take long for the strength from the other grains to push wheat into the black. Early support spilled over from the higher corn and soybean complex. Light support was also due to last-minute position squaring ahead of today’s report. Weather forecasts added support. Forecasts are calling for hot and dry conditions to dominate the Southern Plains over the next 7 to 10 days, which will result in further production concerns. CBOT has also declared a condition of Forced Majeure along the Ohio River due to the recent flooding.
Thursday’s report for wheat was slightly negative as USDA increased wheat stocks more than expected. USDA made no changes to the 2023 crop year. For the 2024 crop year, USDA increased imports by 10 MB (1 MB HRW, 5 MB HRS, 2 MB WW, and 2 MB Durum). Seed demand was trimmed 2 MB. Exports were cut by 15 MB. The net result for wheat stocks increased 27 MB to 846 MB, 23 MB above expectations.
On the world side, stocks were estimated at 260.7 MMT, 200.0 TMT above expectations and 600 TMT above last month. The biggest surprise in the world numbers was a 3.0 MMT decrease in China imports which resulted in China’s stocks to drop 2.0 MMT.
The CME will launch their hard red spring wheat contract on April 14. This will be in competition with the MIAX spring wheat contract (the old MGEX).
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, May Mpls was at $6.15 up 30.5 cents, May Chicago was at $5.5575 up 26.75 cents, May KC was at $5.68 up 10.5 cents.