Wheat opened Monday’s session higher and extended session gains early. Early support came from increasing tensions in the Middle East as the Strait of Hormuz did not open as expected. Light support came from expectations for a friendly Crop Progress report this afternoon. Traders are expecting to see another drop in winter wheat conditions and slow planting progress for HRS wheat. Friday’s COT reports show the funds holding a small net short position in Chicago wheat but a slightly long position in Mpls and KC. The long-term forecast is calling for the Northern Plains to have an equal chance for rain and temps while the Southern Plains is expected to see much above temps and below precip.
Wheat started Tuesday’s session mixed with Mpls opening lower while the winter wheat exchanges were higher. Winter wheat was supported by Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed a larger than expected cut in crop ratings. Mpls was pressured by a stronger than expected planting pace but once you looked at the numbers, you see ND had no progress. This helped Mpls recover late in the session, pushing Mpls to new contract highs in the deferred contracts. Gains were kept in check early from news that India increased their exportable bushels from 2.5 MMT to 5 MMT. Mpls wheat hit our target to start pricing wheat. Producers should price 15% at $6.95 or higher in the Sept. If you prefer, use the Dec contract at $7.10.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened with Mpls gapping lower while the winter wheat exchanges started with gains. Farmer selling hit Mpls overnight as farmers started to price 2026 production once Mpls traded to new highs. It did not take long for Mpls to turn around and follow the winter wheat exchanges, but it did make for an interesting morning. Early support for the winter wheat was due to continued dry conditions. But by midsession wheat had faded its early gains and was trading in the red. A change in the weather forecast, this time putting rain in, resulted in some of the new buyers taking their money off the table. In world news, Sovecon increased their wheat production estimate for Russia to 89.7 MMT vs 87.6 MMT previously.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session mixed with Mpls on the defense while the winter wheat contracts were higher. Early support came from a change in the weather forecast as rain amounts were reduced and the coverage area was moved east. Weather forecasts are also coming from forecasts for chances of freezing temps next week for parts of the winter wheat region. There are reports that the winter wheat in the southwest corner of KS is beyond help.
Wheat exports are now at USDA’s 900 MB projection so with 6 weeks left in the marketing year, USDA will have to increase wheat’s export pace. BAGE lowered Argentina what acreage 3% to 16.1 million acres. Australia is also looking at reduced wheat acres due to poor margins. Taiwan bought 106 TMT of US milling wheat overnight. Mpls new crop Sept and Dec contracts traded to new highs today while KC July traded to highs not seen since June 2024.
Hedgers should target Sept $7.15 to advance 2026 Mpls wheat sales to 30%.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.76 up 22.75 cents, May Chicago was at $6.0825 up 17.0 cents, May KC was at $6.59 up 22.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments April 24
Wheat Weekly Comments April 24
Wheat opened Monday’s session higher and extended session gains early. Early support came from increasing tensions in the Middle East as the Strait of Hormuz did not open as expected. Light support came from expectations for a friendly Crop Progress report this afternoon. Traders are expecting to see another drop in winter wheat conditions and slow planting progress for HRS wheat. Friday’s COT reports show the funds holding a small net short position in Chicago wheat but a slightly long position in Mpls and KC. The long-term forecast is calling for the Northern Plains to have an equal chance for rain and temps while the Southern Plains is expected to see much above temps and below precip.
Wheat started Tuesday’s session mixed with Mpls opening lower while the winter wheat exchanges were higher. Winter wheat was supported by Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed a larger than expected cut in crop ratings. Mpls was pressured by a stronger than expected planting pace but once you looked at the numbers, you see ND had no progress. This helped Mpls recover late in the session, pushing Mpls to new contract highs in the deferred contracts. Gains were kept in check early from news that India increased their exportable bushels from 2.5 MMT to 5 MMT. Mpls wheat hit our target to start pricing wheat. Producers should price 15% at $6.95 or higher in the Sept. If you prefer, use the Dec contract at $7.10.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened with Mpls gapping lower while the winter wheat exchanges started with gains. Farmer selling hit Mpls overnight as farmers started to price 2026 production once Mpls traded to new highs. It did not take long for Mpls to turn around and follow the winter wheat exchanges, but it did make for an interesting morning. Early support for the winter wheat was due to continued dry conditions. But by midsession wheat had faded its early gains and was trading in the red. A change in the weather forecast, this time putting rain in, resulted in some of the new buyers taking their money off the table. In world news, Sovecon increased their wheat production estimate for Russia to 89.7 MMT vs 87.6 MMT previously.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session mixed with Mpls on the defense while the winter wheat contracts were higher. Early support came from a change in the weather forecast as rain amounts were reduced and the coverage area was moved east. Weather forecasts are also coming from forecasts for chances of freezing temps next week for parts of the winter wheat region. There are reports that the winter wheat in the southwest corner of KS is beyond help.
Wheat exports are now at USDA’s 900 MB projection so with 6 weeks left in the marketing year, USDA will have to increase wheat’s export pace. BAGE lowered Argentina what acreage 3% to 16.1 million acres. Australia is also looking at reduced wheat acres due to poor margins. Taiwan bought 106 TMT of US milling wheat overnight. Mpls new crop Sept and Dec contracts traded to new highs today while KC July traded to highs not seen since June 2024.
Hedgers should target Sept $7.15 to advance 2026 Mpls wheat sales to 30%.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.76 up 22.75 cents, May Chicago was at $6.0825 up 17.0 cents, May KC was at $6.59 up 22.25 cents.