To start the week wheat opened the session higher in Mpls and Chicago but softer in KC. Mpls and Chicago were supported by technical buying as both of those contracts bounced off contract lows. KC was lower due to reports of good moisture amounts over the weekend, and from forecasts calling for more moisture this week. Gains were kept in check early by tariff concerns as another round of tariffs are going to be announced Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump is considering a global tariff of 20% on all imported goods. Reports have the cease fire deal between Ukraine and Russia is a no go.
USDA released their Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday. Wheat stocks were estimated at 1.237 BB, 22 MB above expectations and 148 MB above last year. In the plantings report, all wheat acreage was estimated at 45.35 million, down 1.125 million from expectations, down 729,000 from last year, and 1.65 million less than the Ag Outlook Forum. Winter wheat acreage was estimated at 33.315 million, down 651,000 from expectations, down 75,000 from last year, and down 800,000 from USDA’s Jan estimate. Other spring wheat acreage was estimated at 10.02 million, 511,000 less than expected and 605,000 less than last year. Durum acreage is estimated at 2.015 million, 11,000 above expectations but 49,000 less than last year. This is the second lowest all wheat planted acreage estimate since 1919. ND other spring wheat acreage is expected to drop 6% year over year while MT drops 12% and MN increases by 3%.
All three wheat exchanges opened Tuesday’s session higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the start of the day. Early support continued to come from Monday’s Prospective Plantings Report, which trimmed wheat acreage over 1 million acres from expectations. Light support came from what looks to be another week of steady to slightly lower crop ratings for winter wheat. With the lower-than-expected acreage estimate, and declining crop ratings, traders are starting to get worried about US wheat production for 2025. It is going to take better than expected growing conditions to keep stocks of US wheat from decreasing below last year’s levels.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened, mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was higher. By the end of the night session, KC switched places with Chicago while Mpls continued to post numbers in the red. Early selling was tied to profit taking and technical selling as traders prepared for this afternoon’s tariff announcement. Wheat was able to turn mixed once the day session got under way with weather the main supporting factor. Although heavy rains are falling in the Southern Plains at this point, hot dry conditions are expected to return and linger for the next 10 days in the Southern Plains. Weather forecasts helped KC push higher late in the session. Concerns that more winter wheat acreage could be abandoned also help support KC. News that Russia will not agree to the ceasefire agreement with Ukraine added light support.
On Thursday wheat gapped lower on the opening bell with early selling tied to the reaction to the Trump administrations tariff announcement. Light selling was also tied to weather forecasts calling for the Southern Plains to get a few more opportunities for rain over the next 5 days. Losses were trimmed once the market realized that the tariffs situation will likely have little impact on wheat. Reports that India’s 2025 wheat production could be close to 115 MMT vs 113 MMT last year. This would likely result in India to be self-sufficient, keeping them out of the import and export market.
The CME will launch their hard red spring wheat contract on April 14. This will be in competition with the MIAX spring wheat contract (the old MGEX).
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
After the close Monday, KS’s Crop Progress report estimated wheat conditions at 49% g/e, unchanged from last week. OK’s Crop Progress report put wheat conditions at 33% g/e, down 4% from last week. TX’s Crop Progress report estimated conditions at 26% g/e, down 5% from the previous week. CO’s wheat crop was rated at 67% g/e, +1%, IL’s crop improved 13% to 69% g/e, NE’s crop improved 7% to 30% g/e and MT’s crop dropped 9% to 58% good.
For the week, May Mpls was at $5.845 up 3.5 cents, May Chicago was at $5.29 up 0.75 cent, May KC was at $5.575 up 5.75 cents.
For the month, May Mpls was down 5.75 cents, May Chicago was down 18.75 cents, May KC was down 16.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments April 4
Wheat Weekly Comments April 4
To start the week wheat opened the session higher in Mpls and Chicago but softer in KC. Mpls and Chicago were supported by technical buying as both of those contracts bounced off contract lows. KC was lower due to reports of good moisture amounts over the weekend, and from forecasts calling for more moisture this week. Gains were kept in check early by tariff concerns as another round of tariffs are going to be announced Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump is considering a global tariff of 20% on all imported goods. Reports have the cease fire deal between Ukraine and Russia is a no go.
USDA released their Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday. Wheat stocks were estimated at 1.237 BB, 22 MB above expectations and 148 MB above last year. In the plantings report, all wheat acreage was estimated at 45.35 million, down 1.125 million from expectations, down 729,000 from last year, and 1.65 million less than the Ag Outlook Forum. Winter wheat acreage was estimated at 33.315 million, down 651,000 from expectations, down 75,000 from last year, and down 800,000 from USDA’s Jan estimate. Other spring wheat acreage was estimated at 10.02 million, 511,000 less than expected and 605,000 less than last year. Durum acreage is estimated at 2.015 million, 11,000 above expectations but 49,000 less than last year. This is the second lowest all wheat planted acreage estimate since 1919. ND other spring wheat acreage is expected to drop 6% year over year while MT drops 12% and MN increases by 3%.
All three wheat exchanges opened Tuesday’s session higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the start of the day. Early support continued to come from Monday’s Prospective Plantings Report, which trimmed wheat acreage over 1 million acres from expectations. Light support came from what looks to be another week of steady to slightly lower crop ratings for winter wheat. With the lower-than-expected acreage estimate, and declining crop ratings, traders are starting to get worried about US wheat production for 2025. It is going to take better than expected growing conditions to keep stocks of US wheat from decreasing below last year’s levels.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened, mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was higher. By the end of the night session, KC switched places with Chicago while Mpls continued to post numbers in the red. Early selling was tied to profit taking and technical selling as traders prepared for this afternoon’s tariff announcement. Wheat was able to turn mixed once the day session got under way with weather the main supporting factor. Although heavy rains are falling in the Southern Plains at this point, hot dry conditions are expected to return and linger for the next 10 days in the Southern Plains. Weather forecasts helped KC push higher late in the session. Concerns that more winter wheat acreage could be abandoned also help support KC. News that Russia will not agree to the ceasefire agreement with Ukraine added light support.
On Thursday wheat gapped lower on the opening bell with early selling tied to the reaction to the Trump administrations tariff announcement. Light selling was also tied to weather forecasts calling for the Southern Plains to get a few more opportunities for rain over the next 5 days. Losses were trimmed once the market realized that the tariffs situation will likely have little impact on wheat. Reports that India’s 2025 wheat production could be close to 115 MMT vs 113 MMT last year. This would likely result in India to be self-sufficient, keeping them out of the import and export market.
The CME will launch their hard red spring wheat contract on April 14. This will be in competition with the MIAX spring wheat contract (the old MGEX).
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
After the close Monday, KS’s Crop Progress report estimated wheat conditions at 49% g/e, unchanged from last week. OK’s Crop Progress report put wheat conditions at 33% g/e, down 4% from last week. TX’s Crop Progress report estimated conditions at 26% g/e, down 5% from the previous week. CO’s wheat crop was rated at 67% g/e, +1%, IL’s crop improved 13% to 69% g/e, NE’s crop improved 7% to 30% g/e and MT’s crop dropped 9% to 58% good.
For the week, May Mpls was at $5.845 up 3.5 cents, May Chicago was at $5.29 up 0.75 cent, May KC was at $5.575 up 5.75 cents.
For the month, May Mpls was down 5.75 cents, May Chicago was down 18.75 cents, May KC was down 16.0 cents.