To start the week wheat opened the session lower in all exchanges and continued to trade with losses throughout the night. MW was the best performer trading with minor losses throughout the night while the winter wheat exchanges struggled. Light support moved into the wheat markets at the start of the day session with support spilling over from the other grains. MW continues to see support from production concerns due to harvest delays caused by rain. Quality issues are also starting to surface. Pressure is coming from cease fire talks as some traders expect that if a cease fire is obtained, sanctions will be removed from Russia, which will open up their wheat to be available worldwide again. News that the US and India talks are on hold added pressure. Weather forecasts are calling for hot dry conditions in the 1 to 5 day forecast while the 6 to 10 day is calling for dry cool conditions. Both should allow for harvest to progress.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to lower on very thin trading volume. Wheat’s volume is estimated to be at 52-week lows. Although wheat’s trading has been a bit more subdued all three wheat classes traded to new lows this morning. Light selling spilled over from the corn market. Demand concerns continue to keep wheat traders on the defense. A slight increase in US spring wheat conditions added pressure but the most bullish number came in the harvest progress estimate. Traders were expecting spring wheat harvest to be closer to 30% completed, instead it was 6% ahead of expectations and more in line with average. Light pressure came from thoughts that the Black Sea war could soon be over. IKAR increased their Russian production estimate 1 MMT to 85.5 MMT. Halfway through the discovery period, the fall harvest price for crop insurance is estimated at $5.73 vs the spring base price of $6.55, a drop of 12.5%.
On Wednesday wheat opened the session lower but managed to shake off its early selling pressure and push to post small gains in Mpls and Chicago by the end of the night session, but KC remained in the red. Mpls continues to see support from harvest concerns as harvest has been delayed in the Northern Plains and has resulted in quality issues. Winter wheat continues to struggle due to demand concerns. Selling pressure was enough in the overnight session to push the winter wheat exchanges to new contract lows, which resulted in technical buying to step in and push the winter wheat exchanges higher. Light support also spilled over from the strength from the other grains.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session steady to lower in all exchanges except for the SRW wheat, which opened with small gains. Wheat was able to shake off early selling pressure and push higher in the overnight with support coming from continued harvest delays in the Northern Plains as another rain system is moving across the northern tier of ND and MN. Light selling was tied to another increase in Russia’s wheat production estimate. SovEcon increased their estimate 200 TMT to 85.4 MMT. Taiwan bought 90 TMT of US milling wheat. Light support spilled over from the strength in the other grains.
Sept MIAX MW support is $5.65, Sept CME MW support is $5.00, Sept Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Sept KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Sept Mpls MIAX was at $5.695 down 0.5 cent, Sept CME HRS was at $5.37 up 17.5 cents, Sept Chicago was at $5.0475 down 1.75 cents, Sept KC was at $4.98 down 9.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments August 22
Wheat Weekly Comments August 22
To start the week wheat opened the session lower in all exchanges and continued to trade with losses throughout the night. MW was the best performer trading with minor losses throughout the night while the winter wheat exchanges struggled. Light support moved into the wheat markets at the start of the day session with support spilling over from the other grains. MW continues to see support from production concerns due to harvest delays caused by rain. Quality issues are also starting to surface. Pressure is coming from cease fire talks as some traders expect that if a cease fire is obtained, sanctions will be removed from Russia, which will open up their wheat to be available worldwide again. News that the US and India talks are on hold added pressure. Weather forecasts are calling for hot dry conditions in the 1 to 5 day forecast while the 6 to 10 day is calling for dry cool conditions. Both should allow for harvest to progress.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to lower on very thin trading volume. Wheat’s volume is estimated to be at 52-week lows. Although wheat’s trading has been a bit more subdued all three wheat classes traded to new lows this morning. Light selling spilled over from the corn market. Demand concerns continue to keep wheat traders on the defense. A slight increase in US spring wheat conditions added pressure but the most bullish number came in the harvest progress estimate. Traders were expecting spring wheat harvest to be closer to 30% completed, instead it was 6% ahead of expectations and more in line with average. Light pressure came from thoughts that the Black Sea war could soon be over. IKAR increased their Russian production estimate 1 MMT to 85.5 MMT. Halfway through the discovery period, the fall harvest price for crop insurance is estimated at $5.73 vs the spring base price of $6.55, a drop of 12.5%.
On Wednesday wheat opened the session lower but managed to shake off its early selling pressure and push to post small gains in Mpls and Chicago by the end of the night session, but KC remained in the red. Mpls continues to see support from harvest concerns as harvest has been delayed in the Northern Plains and has resulted in quality issues. Winter wheat continues to struggle due to demand concerns. Selling pressure was enough in the overnight session to push the winter wheat exchanges to new contract lows, which resulted in technical buying to step in and push the winter wheat exchanges higher. Light support also spilled over from the strength from the other grains.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session steady to lower in all exchanges except for the SRW wheat, which opened with small gains. Wheat was able to shake off early selling pressure and push higher in the overnight with support coming from continued harvest delays in the Northern Plains as another rain system is moving across the northern tier of ND and MN. Light selling was tied to another increase in Russia’s wheat production estimate. SovEcon increased their estimate 200 TMT to 85.4 MMT. Taiwan bought 90 TMT of US milling wheat. Light support spilled over from the strength in the other grains.
Sept MIAX MW support is $5.65, Sept CME MW support is $5.00, Sept Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Sept KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Sept Mpls MIAX was at $5.695 down 0.5 cent, Sept CME HRS was at $5.37 up 17.5 cents, Sept Chicago was at $5.0475 down 1.75 cents, Sept KC was at $4.98 down 9.0 cents.