To start the week wheat opened the session steady to lower in all of the wheat exchanges, except for KC which opened higher. Early selling was tied to thin light trading as traders looked for news to give the market direction. Losses were trimmed and wheat managed to bounce higher in the day session with support coming from a better-than-expected export shipments pace. Technical buying was seen in wheat as well, especially Chiago which has seen 5 straight lower weekly closes. Wheat did fade its gains late with selling tied to reports of higher potential production out of Russia. News that Canada is going to lift tariffs on all imports from the US tied to products under the USMCA add pressure.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to lower on thin trading. The overnight trading range for wheat was only 3 to 5 cents. Early selling was tied to production concerns as it appears that although the US has seen strong wheat export demand lately, the US still seems to be the supplier of last resort. Losses were trimmed early by another disappointing weekly crop progress report as HRS wheat conditions declined another 1% last week. MT’s crop declined 4% to 1% good while ND’s crop declined 2% to 68% g/e. Late session pressure came from technical selling and selling tied to reports that IKAR increased Russia’s wheat production estimate 500 TMT to 86.0 MMT.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened steady to lower with Mpls starting the session the strongest while the winter wheat exchanges started the session lower. Early selling was tied to rain in the Southern Plains, which should improve soil moisture levels for the upcoming winter wheat planting season. Light selling was tied to increased world production estimates and increased tariffs. This morning the tariff on India was increased by 25%. Australian officials are estimating wheat production between 32 to 35 MMT vs the governments previous estimate of 30.6 MMT. Ukraine’s UAC Union is estimating wheat production at 21.8 MMT vs 22.7 MMT previously and vs the government’s estimate of 21.0 MMT. All three wheat exchanges faded lower late in the session due to pressure from the rolling of front month contracts to deferred months. Mpls was also pressured by improving weather forecasts, which should help harvest advance.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session steady to lower and continued to trade in that fashion throughout the night. Minor strength entered the wheat exchanges once the day session started with most of the strength coming in Mpls. Early support came from this morning’s Export Sales estimate, which was as expected showing another solid week of sales for wheat. Light support came from Stats Canada’s Model Based Crop Production report. The report estimated all wheat production for Canada at 35.5 MMT vs expectations of 35.9 MMT and vs 35.9 MMT last year. Spring wheat production was estimated at 25.99 MMT vs 25.5 MMT last year. Durum production was estimated at 6.07 MMT vs expectations of 6.0 MMT and vs 6.3 MMT last year. The overall decline in wheat production was due to lower-than-expected yields for spring wheat and durum. Support from the higher Mpls exchange spilled over to help Chicago and KC firm and end the session with small gains.
Sept MIAX MW support is $5.65, Sept CME MW support is $5.00, Sept Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Sept KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Sept Mpls MIAX was at $5.5925 down 10.25 cents, Sept CME HRS was at $5.0775 down 29.25 cents, Sept Chicago was at $5.18 up 13.25 cents, Sept KC was at $4.9275 down 5.25 cents.
For the month, Sept Mpls MIAX was down 18.5 cents, Sept CME HRS was down 22.25 cents, Sept Chicago was down 5.25 cents, Sept KC was down 33.5 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments August 29
Wheat Weekly Comments August 29
To start the week wheat opened the session steady to lower in all of the wheat exchanges, except for KC which opened higher. Early selling was tied to thin light trading as traders looked for news to give the market direction. Losses were trimmed and wheat managed to bounce higher in the day session with support coming from a better-than-expected export shipments pace. Technical buying was seen in wheat as well, especially Chiago which has seen 5 straight lower weekly closes. Wheat did fade its gains late with selling tied to reports of higher potential production out of Russia. News that Canada is going to lift tariffs on all imports from the US tied to products under the USMCA add pressure.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to lower on thin trading. The overnight trading range for wheat was only 3 to 5 cents. Early selling was tied to production concerns as it appears that although the US has seen strong wheat export demand lately, the US still seems to be the supplier of last resort. Losses were trimmed early by another disappointing weekly crop progress report as HRS wheat conditions declined another 1% last week. MT’s crop declined 4% to 1% good while ND’s crop declined 2% to 68% g/e. Late session pressure came from technical selling and selling tied to reports that IKAR increased Russia’s wheat production estimate 500 TMT to 86.0 MMT.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened steady to lower with Mpls starting the session the strongest while the winter wheat exchanges started the session lower. Early selling was tied to rain in the Southern Plains, which should improve soil moisture levels for the upcoming winter wheat planting season. Light selling was tied to increased world production estimates and increased tariffs. This morning the tariff on India was increased by 25%. Australian officials are estimating wheat production between 32 to 35 MMT vs the governments previous estimate of 30.6 MMT. Ukraine’s UAC Union is estimating wheat production at 21.8 MMT vs 22.7 MMT previously and vs the government’s estimate of 21.0 MMT. All three wheat exchanges faded lower late in the session due to pressure from the rolling of front month contracts to deferred months. Mpls was also pressured by improving weather forecasts, which should help harvest advance.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session steady to lower and continued to trade in that fashion throughout the night. Minor strength entered the wheat exchanges once the day session started with most of the strength coming in Mpls. Early support came from this morning’s Export Sales estimate, which was as expected showing another solid week of sales for wheat. Light support came from Stats Canada’s Model Based Crop Production report. The report estimated all wheat production for Canada at 35.5 MMT vs expectations of 35.9 MMT and vs 35.9 MMT last year. Spring wheat production was estimated at 25.99 MMT vs 25.5 MMT last year. Durum production was estimated at 6.07 MMT vs expectations of 6.0 MMT and vs 6.3 MMT last year. The overall decline in wheat production was due to lower-than-expected yields for spring wheat and durum. Support from the higher Mpls exchange spilled over to help Chicago and KC firm and end the session with small gains.
Sept MIAX MW support is $5.65, Sept CME MW support is $5.00, Sept Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Sept KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Sept Mpls MIAX was at $5.5925 down 10.25 cents, Sept CME HRS was at $5.0775 down 29.25 cents, Sept Chicago was at $5.18 up 13.25 cents, Sept KC was at $4.9275 down 5.25 cents.
For the month, Sept Mpls MIAX was down 18.5 cents, Sept CME HRS was down 22.25 cents, Sept Chicago was down 5.25 cents, Sept KC was down 33.5 cents.