To start the week wheat opened mixed but firmed to post gains by the close of the night session. Buying increased once the day session started but a selloff in corn and soybeans pulled wheat off of their highs. Early support came from world production concerns as traders are looking for USDA to lower Russia’s and Australia’s wheat production estimate tomorrow. Gains were trimmed once the Weekly Export Inspections estimate was released as it showed a lower than expected wheat shipments pace, which came in at the 3rd lowest in 27 weeks. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s Crop Production report was also evident.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session lower across the board on thin light trading. Wheat’s overnight trading range was 4 to 5 cents. Early selling was tied to reports of Russia downplaying their poor wheat crop condition rating. Light activity was also focused on last minute position squaring ahead of USDA’s Crop Production report. The report was friendly wheat as stocks were trimmed more than expected.
USDA left all of the US old crop production numbers unchanged in the report, but on the world stage, USDA did increase EU production 200 TMT and increase EU exports 100 TMT. That was offset by a decrease of 100 TMT in Australia exports.
For new crop 2024, USDA increased supply by 5 MB by increasing imports of HRS wheat. On the demand side, USDA increased exports by 25 MB. The net change was a 20 MB decrease in stocks, putting stocks at 795 MB, which was 20 MB below expectations.
On the world stage, USDA estimated stocks at 257.9 MMT, 200 TMT above expectations and 300 TMT above last month. The major changes were EU production cut 1.3 MMT, EU exports cut 1.0 MMT, Ukraine exports increased 500 TMT, Russia exports cut 1.0 MMT, and China imports cut 500 TMT. Technically Tuesday’s close in wheat was encouraging as Mpls closed above $6.00 two sessions in a row.
On Wednesday, the wheat markets were mostly higher overnight, saw the session highs at the start of the day session but then faded and closed with minor gains. An IKAR consultant believes Russia could increase oilseed acres by 2.5 million, mainly at the expense of wheat acres, as oilseed crops are more profitable. IKAR also noted that Russia’s winter wheat conditions may not be as poor as numbers from the state weather forecasting agency indicated. Wheat plants in an early sprouting stage with one leaf per sprout in November were classified as being in a “poor state” but still have a good chance of surviving the winter.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was higher. By the time the night session was ending, all three wheat exchanges were posting small losses. Early support continued to come from Tuesday’s report. Selling pressure picked up strength once the export sales estimate was released. Last week’s pace was at the bottom of expectations and an 11-week low. CONAB is estimating Brazil’s wheat production at 8.06 MMT vs 8.11 MMT previously. Rosario Grain Exchange is estimating Argentina wheat production at 19.3 MMT vs 18.8 MMT previously. Selling pressure also spilled over from the other grains as today seemed to be more about profit taking and evening up positions.
Target $6.85 to advance sales.
March MW support is at $5.85 while resistance is at $6.25.
For the week, Mar Mpls was at $5.985 up 2.0 cents, Mar Chicago was at $5.5225 down 5.0 cents, Mar KC was at $5.57 up 3.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments Dec 13
Wheat Weekly Comments Dec 13
To start the week wheat opened mixed but firmed to post gains by the close of the night session. Buying increased once the day session started but a selloff in corn and soybeans pulled wheat off of their highs. Early support came from world production concerns as traders are looking for USDA to lower Russia’s and Australia’s wheat production estimate tomorrow. Gains were trimmed once the Weekly Export Inspections estimate was released as it showed a lower than expected wheat shipments pace, which came in at the 3rd lowest in 27 weeks. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s Crop Production report was also evident.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session lower across the board on thin light trading. Wheat’s overnight trading range was 4 to 5 cents. Early selling was tied to reports of Russia downplaying their poor wheat crop condition rating. Light activity was also focused on last minute position squaring ahead of USDA’s Crop Production report. The report was friendly wheat as stocks were trimmed more than expected.
USDA left all of the US old crop production numbers unchanged in the report, but on the world stage, USDA did increase EU production 200 TMT and increase EU exports 100 TMT. That was offset by a decrease of 100 TMT in Australia exports.
For new crop 2024, USDA increased supply by 5 MB by increasing imports of HRS wheat. On the demand side, USDA increased exports by 25 MB. The net change was a 20 MB decrease in stocks, putting stocks at 795 MB, which was 20 MB below expectations.
On the world stage, USDA estimated stocks at 257.9 MMT, 200 TMT above expectations and 300 TMT above last month. The major changes were EU production cut 1.3 MMT, EU exports cut 1.0 MMT, Ukraine exports increased 500 TMT, Russia exports cut 1.0 MMT, and China imports cut 500 TMT. Technically Tuesday’s close in wheat was encouraging as Mpls closed above $6.00 two sessions in a row.
On Wednesday, the wheat markets were mostly higher overnight, saw the session highs at the start of the day session but then faded and closed with minor gains. An IKAR consultant believes Russia could increase oilseed acres by 2.5 million, mainly at the expense of wheat acres, as oilseed crops are more profitable. IKAR also noted that Russia’s winter wheat conditions may not be as poor as numbers from the state weather forecasting agency indicated. Wheat plants in an early sprouting stage with one leaf per sprout in November were classified as being in a “poor state” but still have a good chance of surviving the winter.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago was higher. By the time the night session was ending, all three wheat exchanges were posting small losses. Early support continued to come from Tuesday’s report. Selling pressure picked up strength once the export sales estimate was released. Last week’s pace was at the bottom of expectations and an 11-week low. CONAB is estimating Brazil’s wheat production at 8.06 MMT vs 8.11 MMT previously. Rosario Grain Exchange is estimating Argentina wheat production at 19.3 MMT vs 18.8 MMT previously. Selling pressure also spilled over from the other grains as today seemed to be more about profit taking and evening up positions.
Target $6.85 to advance sales.
March MW support is at $5.85 while resistance is at $6.25.
For the week, Mar Mpls was at $5.985 up 2.0 cents, Mar Chicago was at $5.5225 down 5.0 cents, Mar KC was at $5.57 up 3.25 cents.