Wheat started the week by opening steady in the Mpls exchange but lower in winter wheat. By the time the night session was drawing to a close, wheat had firmed with Mpls and Chicago pushing higher while KC remained on the defense. Position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of Tuesday’s Dec Crop Production report was the main driver early. Early support came from USDA’s 10-year Baseline projections calling for 2026 wheat planted acreage to be at 44 million vs 45.3 million last year. Stocks are estimated to be at 832 MB vs 901 MB last year. Ukraine officials are projection wheat production at 23.2 MMT vs 22.7 MMT previously and they are estimating 2026 production to be near 23.9 MMT, the highest since Russia invaded. Traders are not looking for a big change in wheat’s numbers tomorrow, just maybe a slight increase in exports since exports are running about 21% ahead of last year at this time.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with Mpls lower while the winter wheat exchanges started higher. By the end of the night all three wheat exchanges were posting gains. Early support came from Monday’s 10-year baseline projections which is calling for lower winter wheat acreage in 2026. Last minute position squaring ahead of the report added direction. The US numbers from the report were neutral with USDA making very few adjustments.
For old crop USDA decreased seed demand 1 MB, but due to rounding, no other numbers were changed.
USDA made no adjustments to the new crop numbers. That put stocks at 901 MB, 12 MB above expectations.
World wheat numbers were negative. World stocks came in at 274.9 MMT, 1.9 MMT above expectations and 3.5 MMT above last month. Once again, USDA increased production in every one of the worlds exporting countries except for Ukraine.
Wheat started Wednesday’s session steady to lower with KC steady while Chicago and Mpls opened in the red. All three exchanges extended losses through the night. Higher production estimates for most of the world’s major export countries started wheat on the defense. Technical selling added to the pressure as wheat tests the bottom of its recent trading range. Wheat is looking for direction and although US exports have improved (the highest level in 9 years) but increasing competition from increasing world production estimates has kept a wet blanket on wheat.
In Thursday’s session wheat started the day mixed with Mpls steady while the winter wheat exchanges started higher. Wheat managed to extend session gains throughout the night but slipped to trade mixed during the day session. Technical buying gave wheat strength early as traders try to give wheat a little more breathing room from contract lows. Early support also came from the morning’s export sales estimate, which showed for the week ending Nov 13, wheat export sales pace above expectations and the second highest for the marketing year. A lower US dollar added support. Increasing world production estimates kept a lid on gains.
March MIAX MW support is $5.65, March Chicago wheat support is $5.30, March KC support is $5.20.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.7575 up 2.75 cents, March Chicago was at $5.2925 down 6.5 cents, March KC was at $5.185 down 13.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments December 12
Wheat Weekly Comments December 12
Wheat started the week by opening steady in the Mpls exchange but lower in winter wheat. By the time the night session was drawing to a close, wheat had firmed with Mpls and Chicago pushing higher while KC remained on the defense. Position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of Tuesday’s Dec Crop Production report was the main driver early. Early support came from USDA’s 10-year Baseline projections calling for 2026 wheat planted acreage to be at 44 million vs 45.3 million last year. Stocks are estimated to be at 832 MB vs 901 MB last year. Ukraine officials are projection wheat production at 23.2 MMT vs 22.7 MMT previously and they are estimating 2026 production to be near 23.9 MMT, the highest since Russia invaded. Traders are not looking for a big change in wheat’s numbers tomorrow, just maybe a slight increase in exports since exports are running about 21% ahead of last year at this time.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with Mpls lower while the winter wheat exchanges started higher. By the end of the night all three wheat exchanges were posting gains. Early support came from Monday’s 10-year baseline projections which is calling for lower winter wheat acreage in 2026. Last minute position squaring ahead of the report added direction. The US numbers from the report were neutral with USDA making very few adjustments.
For old crop USDA decreased seed demand 1 MB, but due to rounding, no other numbers were changed.
USDA made no adjustments to the new crop numbers. That put stocks at 901 MB, 12 MB above expectations.
World wheat numbers were negative. World stocks came in at 274.9 MMT, 1.9 MMT above expectations and 3.5 MMT above last month. Once again, USDA increased production in every one of the worlds exporting countries except for Ukraine.
Wheat started Wednesday’s session steady to lower with KC steady while Chicago and Mpls opened in the red. All three exchanges extended losses through the night. Higher production estimates for most of the world’s major export countries started wheat on the defense. Technical selling added to the pressure as wheat tests the bottom of its recent trading range. Wheat is looking for direction and although US exports have improved (the highest level in 9 years) but increasing competition from increasing world production estimates has kept a wet blanket on wheat.
In Thursday’s session wheat started the day mixed with Mpls steady while the winter wheat exchanges started higher. Wheat managed to extend session gains throughout the night but slipped to trade mixed during the day session. Technical buying gave wheat strength early as traders try to give wheat a little more breathing room from contract lows. Early support also came from the morning’s export sales estimate, which showed for the week ending Nov 13, wheat export sales pace above expectations and the second highest for the marketing year. A lower US dollar added support. Increasing world production estimates kept a lid on gains.
March MIAX MW support is $5.65, March Chicago wheat support is $5.30, March KC support is $5.20.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.7575 up 2.75 cents, March Chicago was at $5.2925 down 6.5 cents, March KC was at $5.185 down 13.25 cents.