Wheat started the week by opening with each wheat exchange going in its own direction (Mpls was steady, Chicago higher, KC lower). By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges were posting losses. Selling was limited at the start of the day session with early support coming from support from a better-than-expected export inspections estimate. Light support was also due to reports that Ukraine’s wheat exports will not be as large are earlier estimated. APK-Inform is now estimating Ukraine wheat exports at 14.5 MMT vs 16.7 MMT previously. But the lack of follow-though buying in the grains put pressure on wheat with selling spilling over from a lower corn market. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report was also evident.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night and start of the day session. Early selling was tied to last minute position squaring ahead of the Feb Crop Production report. Improving weather conditions added pressure as it appears that the early cold weather was not long enough in duration to result in much winter kill in the US as well as in the Black Sea region.
Wheat continued to trade in a lackluster fashion after the release of the report as USDA did not make many changes to wheat’s supply and demand numbers. For old crop USDA left all numbers unchanged. For new crop, USDA decreased food demand 5 MB, which ended up increasing ending stocks by the same 5 MB putting stocks at a very comfortable 931 MB, 16 MB above expectations.
World stocks were estimated at 277.5 MMT, 700 TMT below expectations and 800 TMT below last month. Argentina production was increased 200 TMT and exports increased 2.0 MMT. Canada’s exports increased 1 MMT while the EU saw exports drop 1.0 MMT. Overall, the report was neutral to negative.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened steady to higher and proceeded to extend session gains throughout the rest of the session. Early support was due to technical buying as it appears that the funds were looking to take some profit off the table ahead of first notice for the March futures. Reports that Ukraine exports are running behind expectations added support. Year to date Ukraine exports is at 8.5 MMT vs 11.46 MMT last year.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session steady to lower but shook off the early selling pressure and pushed to trade with decent gains by the end of the night session. Technical selling pressured the wheat early but that quickly gave way to fund short covering. The funds are holding large short positions and looking to take money off the table ahead of the long weekend and first notice day for March. Light support spilled over from the higher corn and soybean markets. Although wheat exports have been stagnating lately, last week’s export sales pace was at the top of expectations, which added support.
March MIAX MW support is $5.65, March Chicago wheat support is $5.08, March KC support is $4.99.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.7175 up 1.75 cents, March Chicago was at $5.4875 up 19.0 cents, March KC was at $5.425 up 11.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments February 13
Wheat Weekly Comments February 13
Wheat started the week by opening with each wheat exchange going in its own direction (Mpls was steady, Chicago higher, KC lower). By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges were posting losses. Selling was limited at the start of the day session with early support coming from support from a better-than-expected export inspections estimate. Light support was also due to reports that Ukraine’s wheat exports will not be as large are earlier estimated. APK-Inform is now estimating Ukraine wheat exports at 14.5 MMT vs 16.7 MMT previously. But the lack of follow-though buying in the grains put pressure on wheat with selling spilling over from a lower corn market. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report was also evident.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session lower and continued to trade with small losses throughout the night and start of the day session. Early selling was tied to last minute position squaring ahead of the Feb Crop Production report. Improving weather conditions added pressure as it appears that the early cold weather was not long enough in duration to result in much winter kill in the US as well as in the Black Sea region.
Wheat continued to trade in a lackluster fashion after the release of the report as USDA did not make many changes to wheat’s supply and demand numbers. For old crop USDA left all numbers unchanged. For new crop, USDA decreased food demand 5 MB, which ended up increasing ending stocks by the same 5 MB putting stocks at a very comfortable 931 MB, 16 MB above expectations.
World stocks were estimated at 277.5 MMT, 700 TMT below expectations and 800 TMT below last month. Argentina production was increased 200 TMT and exports increased 2.0 MMT. Canada’s exports increased 1 MMT while the EU saw exports drop 1.0 MMT. Overall, the report was neutral to negative.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened steady to higher and proceeded to extend session gains throughout the rest of the session. Early support was due to technical buying as it appears that the funds were looking to take some profit off the table ahead of first notice for the March futures. Reports that Ukraine exports are running behind expectations added support. Year to date Ukraine exports is at 8.5 MMT vs 11.46 MMT last year.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session steady to lower but shook off the early selling pressure and pushed to trade with decent gains by the end of the night session. Technical selling pressured the wheat early but that quickly gave way to fund short covering. The funds are holding large short positions and looking to take money off the table ahead of the long weekend and first notice day for March. Light support spilled over from the higher corn and soybean markets. Although wheat exports have been stagnating lately, last week’s export sales pace was at the top of expectations, which added support.
March MIAX MW support is $5.65, March Chicago wheat support is $5.08, March KC support is $4.99.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.7175 up 1.75 cents, March Chicago was at $5.4875 up 19.0 cents, March KC was at $5.425 up 11.25 cents.