Wheat opened Monday’s session steady to lower but quickly firmed to trade with gains. Early support was due to expectations that today’s USDA reports, at worst, would be neutral to maybe a little negative wheat. The wheat numbers were not that bearish, but yet wheat faded lower with selling slipping over from the lower corn and soybean complex.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate put Dec wheat stocks at 1.675 BB, 39 MB above expectations and 102 MB above last year at this time. According to the report, 1.229 BB of the wheat is stored off farm while only 446 MB is on farm.
The Winter Wheat Seedings estimate as also negative wheat. All winter wheat acreage was estimated at 32.99 million, 577.000 acres above expectations and 163,000 acres below last year. HRW wheat acreage was estimated at 23.5 million, 472,000 acres above expectations and 11,000 above last year. SRW wheat acreage was estimated at 6.14 million, 215,000 acres above expectations and 4,000 acres above last year. WW wheat acres were estimated at 3.36 million, 86,000 acres below expectations and 168,000 acres below last year.
Old crop wheat’s supply and demand table saw minor adjustments as all USDA did was lower feed demand 4 MB, which increased ending stocks to 855 MB. New crop wheat’s supply and demand table saw a 1 MB decrease in seed demand and a 20 MB drop in feed demand. The net result was a 25 MB increase in ending stocks, now estimated at 926 MB, 31 MB above expectations.
World wheat numbers were negative with stocks coming in at 278.3 MMT, 2.1 MMT above expectations and 3.4 MMT above last month. Changes to the world estimate consisted of a 3.5 MMT increase in Argentina production and a 1.5 MMT increase in Argentina exports, EU exports dropping 500 TMT, Russia production increasing 2.0 MMT, Ukraine exports dropping 500 TMT, and China production and stocks increasing 100 TMT. But by the close, wheat was the best performer of the day.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened mixed with Chiago starting the session higher while Mpls and KC opened with losses. By the end of the night selling took charge of the winter wheat contracts while Mpls was able to push higher. Winter wheat continued to see selling pressure from Monday’s larger than expected acreage estimate. Light selling was also due to demand concerns as yesterday’s WASDE report confirmed the world is awash in wheat. By the end of the session Mpls and Chicago managed to recover and end with small gains while KC faded lower due to the increase in acreage estimate.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with winter wheat higher while Mpls was lower. By the end of the night session Mpls was trading with gains while the winter wheat exchanges faded lower. Strength returned to all three wheat exchanges once the day session started with most of the support coming from technical buying. Weather concerns in the US Southern Plains helped support wheat. News was hard to come by as the trade was focusing more on the Supreme Court and developments in Iran.
On Thursday wheat opened the overnight session steady to lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turned to trade steady to higher throughout the night session. Winter wheat had the best gains while Mpls remained steady. Early support spilled over from the other grains as both corn and soybeans saw early gains due to strong export demand. Expana is estimating EU soft wheat production at 128.6 MMT, up 300 TMT. Late session pressure pulled wheat due to another disappointing weekly export sales estimate, which came in at the bottom of expectations. Wheat will likely continue to trade at the bottom of its trading range for the next 4 to 6 weeks, or at least until the winter wheat starts to break dormancy.
March MIAX MW support is $5.65, March Chicago wheat support is $5.08, March KC support is $4.99.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.65 down 2.5 cents, March Chicago was at $5.18 down 0.75 cent, March KC was at $5.2725 down 3.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments January 16
Wheat Weekly Comments January 16
Wheat opened Monday’s session steady to lower but quickly firmed to trade with gains. Early support was due to expectations that today’s USDA reports, at worst, would be neutral to maybe a little negative wheat. The wheat numbers were not that bearish, but yet wheat faded lower with selling slipping over from the lower corn and soybean complex.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate put Dec wheat stocks at 1.675 BB, 39 MB above expectations and 102 MB above last year at this time. According to the report, 1.229 BB of the wheat is stored off farm while only 446 MB is on farm.
The Winter Wheat Seedings estimate as also negative wheat. All winter wheat acreage was estimated at 32.99 million, 577.000 acres above expectations and 163,000 acres below last year. HRW wheat acreage was estimated at 23.5 million, 472,000 acres above expectations and 11,000 above last year. SRW wheat acreage was estimated at 6.14 million, 215,000 acres above expectations and 4,000 acres above last year. WW wheat acres were estimated at 3.36 million, 86,000 acres below expectations and 168,000 acres below last year.
Old crop wheat’s supply and demand table saw minor adjustments as all USDA did was lower feed demand 4 MB, which increased ending stocks to 855 MB. New crop wheat’s supply and demand table saw a 1 MB decrease in seed demand and a 20 MB drop in feed demand. The net result was a 25 MB increase in ending stocks, now estimated at 926 MB, 31 MB above expectations.
World wheat numbers were negative with stocks coming in at 278.3 MMT, 2.1 MMT above expectations and 3.4 MMT above last month. Changes to the world estimate consisted of a 3.5 MMT increase in Argentina production and a 1.5 MMT increase in Argentina exports, EU exports dropping 500 TMT, Russia production increasing 2.0 MMT, Ukraine exports dropping 500 TMT, and China production and stocks increasing 100 TMT. But by the close, wheat was the best performer of the day.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened mixed with Chiago starting the session higher while Mpls and KC opened with losses. By the end of the night selling took charge of the winter wheat contracts while Mpls was able to push higher. Winter wheat continued to see selling pressure from Monday’s larger than expected acreage estimate. Light selling was also due to demand concerns as yesterday’s WASDE report confirmed the world is awash in wheat. By the end of the session Mpls and Chicago managed to recover and end with small gains while KC faded lower due to the increase in acreage estimate.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with winter wheat higher while Mpls was lower. By the end of the night session Mpls was trading with gains while the winter wheat exchanges faded lower. Strength returned to all three wheat exchanges once the day session started with most of the support coming from technical buying. Weather concerns in the US Southern Plains helped support wheat. News was hard to come by as the trade was focusing more on the Supreme Court and developments in Iran.
On Thursday wheat opened the overnight session steady to lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turned to trade steady to higher throughout the night session. Winter wheat had the best gains while Mpls remained steady. Early support spilled over from the other grains as both corn and soybeans saw early gains due to strong export demand. Expana is estimating EU soft wheat production at 128.6 MMT, up 300 TMT. Late session pressure pulled wheat due to another disappointing weekly export sales estimate, which came in at the bottom of expectations. Wheat will likely continue to trade at the bottom of its trading range for the next 4 to 6 weeks, or at least until the winter wheat starts to break dormancy.
March MIAX MW support is $5.65, March Chicago wheat support is $5.08, March KC support is $4.99.
For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.65 down 2.5 cents, March Chicago was at $5.18 down 0.75 cent, March KC was at $5.2725 down 3.0 cents.