Wheat Weekly Comments January 2

Wheat Weekly Comments January 2

Wheat opened the week mixed and continued to trade in that fashion throughout the session. Mpls was the strongest wheat exchange, but that isn’t saying much since Mpls only managed to end steady to fractionally higher. Winter wheat was pressured early by reports that the weekend meeting between Ukraine and the US went well showing progress was made on peace talks. Putin threw a wrench into the talks when he said he was not as excited about peace after hearing Ukraine was looking at attacking his personal residence. Late pressure came from rumors China is looking at releasing 7.25 MMT of 2017 reserve wheat. Position squaring ahead of year end was also noted.

Small losses were seen in all three wheat exchanges on Tuesday/. Wheat opened the session steady to lower and continued to trade close to steady throughout the day. The lack of news and year end position squaring continues to pressure wheat. The uncertainty about the Black Sea war continues to add pressure. Position squaring and the evening up of positions ahead of the new year is the main driver in wheat.

Wednesday wheat opened the session lower on thin light trading. The overnight range for wheat was tight with Mpls only seeing a 2-cent range while Chicago was at 4 cents and KC 6 cents. Early selling was tied to another disappointing export sales estimate, which put the week ending Dec 18’s sales pace at a marketing year low. Light selling was tied to BAGE’s increased production estimate for Argentina wheat. Estimates for the wheat crop are 27.8 MMT vs 27.1 MMT previously. Spread trading between the classes was also evident as traders even up positions ahead of year end.

March MIAX MW support is $5.65, March Chicago support is $5.08, March KC support is $4.99.

For the week, March Mpls MIAX was at $5.7075 down 8.5 cents, March Chicago was at $5.065 down 12.5 cents, March KC was at $5.15 down 18.5 cents.

For the month, March Mpls MIAX was down 4.0 cents, March Chicago was down 31.5 cents, March KC was down 12.75 cents.

For the year, March Mpls MIAX was down 76.25 cents, March Chicago was down $1.0675, March KC was down $1.0325.

 

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