Wheat Weekly Comments January 3

Wheat Weekly Comments January 3

To start the week wheat opened the overnight session mixed with MW lower while the winter wheat exchanges were higher. By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges were posting gains. Early support came from weather forecasts calling for extremely cold temps to move into the Plains by the end of the week. Light support spilled over from the higher corn and soybean market. Technical selling was uncovered once Mpls March hit $6.00, but no technical damage was done to the wheat charts in the session.

In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the overnight session mixed with Mpls lower while the winter wheat exchanges opened higher. By the end of the night all three exchanges were posting decent gains on light volume and tight trading range (1 to 3 cents). Cold temps are in the forecast for the Plains and that helped give wheat support. A stronger EU wheat market added support. Light support spilled over from the strength from corn and soybeans. But wheat could not hold its gains and slipped lower around mid-session. Selling was tied to profit taking and the evening up of positions ahead of year end.

When the markets reopened on Thursday morning, wheat opened steady to lower and extended session losses throughout the day. Early selling was tied to profit taking and technical selling as all of the grains started the new year sloppy. A sharply higher US dollar added pressure (the US dollar is at 2-year highs). Losses were kept in check from a late rally in the US corn and soybean markets as well as from a strong session in the EU wheat contract (which traded to 6 month high). Mexico is lowering their wheat import tax in an attempt to increase supply of wheat and lower domestic prices.

According to Pro Farmer, USDA’s projected per acre payment for the $10 Billion Ag Economic Program will be a little lower than initially thought. For wheat it is $30.69. Barley’s payment is projected at $21.76. Oats’ payment is estimated at $77.66.

Target $6.85 to advance sales.

March MW support is at $5.85 while resistance is at $6.25.

For the week, Mar Mpls was at $5.7775 down 17.5 cents, Mar Chicago was at $5.2925 down 17.25 cents, Mar KC was at $5.39 down 15.5 cents.

For the month, Mar Mpls was up 4.0 cents, Mar Chicago was up 3.5 cents, Mar KC was up 18.5 cents.

For the year, Mar Mpls was down $1.2775, Mar Chicago was down 76.5 cents, Mar KC was down 82.75 cents.

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