To start the week wheat opened lower, firmed slightly through the overnight session, and start of the day session, but then sold off to end the session lower. Early selling pressure was tied to improving weather conditions for the US Southern Plains and Delta states. Early support was due to reports that the last wintery mix of weather could have resulted in 15% winter kill. Last week’s export inspections estimate was better than expected. Pressure also came from today being the day Argentina lowers their export tariff on wheat to from 12% to 9.5%.
On Tuesday wheat opened the overnight session steady to higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the day session. Early support was due to a change in the weather forecasts as now the forecast is calling for the rain in the Southern Plains to move east and miss the western regions of KS, OK, and CO. Technical buying added support as all three wheat exchanges were able to bounce off minor support. Light support spilled over from the higher corn market. Reports that the Treasury Sec is looking at smaller more targeted tariffs helped calm trader’s nerves.
In Wednesday’s session wheat started the session with each exchange going in their own direction. By the time the night session was closing all three wheat exchanges were posting solid gains and looking to expand the rally once the day session opened. Early support came from updated weather forecasts calling for the rain events for the Southern Plains to move more east and away from the major growing region. Light support also came from reports that Russia’s Weather Agency is rating the winter crop in Russia at 38% poor to very poor. The Ag Minister is rating the crop at 82% good. Ukraine is estimating their wheat ending stocks to drop 26% year over year. Stats Canada is estimating Canada durum acreage to drop 12% to 5.15 million hectares while wheat acreage is expected to increase 2.7% to 29.87 million hectares.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher, gaining ground throughout the session. Early selling pressure spilled over from the lower corn and soybean complex. It was impressive to see wheat brush off the early selling pressure and push higher. So far this week, wheat has put in a key weekly reversal and a higher close tomorrow could be start of a decent rally for wheat. Light support came from an escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine as Russia attacked key port facilities overnight. Russia’s wheat export projection dropped 900 TMT to 42.8 MMT.
Target $6.35 to advance sales.
March MW support is at $5.85 while resistance is at $6.35.
For the week, Mar Mpls was at $6.155 up 20.25 cents, Mar Chicago was at $5.595 up 15.5 cents, Mar KC was at $5.7925 up 19.75 cents.
For the month, Mar Mpls was up 19.75 cents, Mar Chicago was up 8.0 cents, Mar KC was up 20.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments January 31
Wheat Weekly Comments January 31
To start the week wheat opened lower, firmed slightly through the overnight session, and start of the day session, but then sold off to end the session lower. Early selling pressure was tied to improving weather conditions for the US Southern Plains and Delta states. Early support was due to reports that the last wintery mix of weather could have resulted in 15% winter kill. Last week’s export inspections estimate was better than expected. Pressure also came from today being the day Argentina lowers their export tariff on wheat to from 12% to 9.5%.
On Tuesday wheat opened the overnight session steady to higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the day session. Early support was due to a change in the weather forecasts as now the forecast is calling for the rain in the Southern Plains to move east and miss the western regions of KS, OK, and CO. Technical buying added support as all three wheat exchanges were able to bounce off minor support. Light support spilled over from the higher corn market. Reports that the Treasury Sec is looking at smaller more targeted tariffs helped calm trader’s nerves.
In Wednesday’s session wheat started the session with each exchange going in their own direction. By the time the night session was closing all three wheat exchanges were posting solid gains and looking to expand the rally once the day session opened. Early support came from updated weather forecasts calling for the rain events for the Southern Plains to move more east and away from the major growing region. Light support also came from reports that Russia’s Weather Agency is rating the winter crop in Russia at 38% poor to very poor. The Ag Minister is rating the crop at 82% good. Ukraine is estimating their wheat ending stocks to drop 26% year over year. Stats Canada is estimating Canada durum acreage to drop 12% to 5.15 million hectares while wheat acreage is expected to increase 2.7% to 29.87 million hectares.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session lower but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and push higher, gaining ground throughout the session. Early selling pressure spilled over from the lower corn and soybean complex. It was impressive to see wheat brush off the early selling pressure and push higher. So far this week, wheat has put in a key weekly reversal and a higher close tomorrow could be start of a decent rally for wheat. Light support came from an escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine as Russia attacked key port facilities overnight. Russia’s wheat export projection dropped 900 TMT to 42.8 MMT.
Target $6.35 to advance sales.
March MW support is at $5.85 while resistance is at $6.35.
For the week, Mar Mpls was at $6.155 up 20.25 cents, Mar Chicago was at $5.595 up 15.5 cents, Mar KC was at $5.7925 up 19.75 cents.
For the month, Mar Mpls was up 19.75 cents, Mar Chicago was up 8.0 cents, Mar KC was up 20.0 cents.