In Monday’s session winter wheat gapped higher on the opening bell but faded to end close out the night session steady soft. Mpls opened the session steady but pushed higher to end the night session higher. The day session had all three wheat exchanges trading mixed. Wheat struggled due to another week of disappointing export shipments. Reports of rain overnight in the Northern Plains added pressure, but that rain was very spotty and isolated. Losses were kept in check by an escalation in the war in Iran as well as in the Black Sea region, which is slowing movement of grain. Expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will not bring bullish news to wheat added selling pressure.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to lower and proceeded to extend session losses throughout the night session. Early selling spilled over from the lower corn and soybean markets. Light pressure was due to weather forecasts calling for a bit of a reprieve from the heat in the Northern Plains. Technical pressure was also evident early as traders took profits off the table. Wheat was able to brush off the pressure and turn higher in the day session. Support came from a lower-than-expected winter wheat harvest pace as well as from another large decline in spring wheat ratings. War concerns added support late as vessels are reportedly turning around and not going through the Strait of Hormuz due to fear of attack. In world news, SovEcon trimmed Russia’s wheat production estimate 600 TMT to 88.3 MMT.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction, but it did not take long for Mpls and KC to join Chicago on the plus side. Early support was due to reports of logistic issues for wheat as the escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia is starting to cause disruption in vessel logistics and has even resulted in some ships looking to take alternative routes. Weather forecasts added support as hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate the Northern Plains for the next 7 to 10 days.
Day 1 of the Wheat Quality Tour had a yield estimate of 45.9 bus vs 49.8 bus last year. Wednesday’s leg went west and north of Bismarck and will end up in Devils Lake. Light support spilled over from the EU wheat contract, which was also sharply higher due to production concerns as hot and dry conditions linger there as well. Technically Chicago and KC traded to new contract highs while Mpls hasn’t.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened lower across the board but managed to firm and trade mixed by the end of the night session. Selling was tied to profit taking and position squaring ahead of the weekend. Technical selling was also evident as Mpls wheat has rallied $1.365 cents since the end of June. Winter wheat was pressured by last week’s disappointing export sales estimate. Selling was also due to the radar showing good rains in KS and NE this morning.
A better-than-expected yield from Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Tour added pressure. The tour put day 2 yields at 48.1 bus vs 46.2 bus last year. The tour wrapped up Thursday covering the north central and northwestern regions of ND. Losses were kept in check in Mpls due to adverse weather forecasts which if realized this weekend could result in a lot of the spring wheat crops maturing prematurely. Wheat looks tired so don’t be surprised to see a lower session on Friday.
Sept Mpls support is at $6.45, Sept Chicago wheat support is $6.27; Sept KC support is $6.65.
For the week, Sept MIAX was at $7.1425 up 22.5 cents, Sept Chicago was at $6.78 down 4.75 cents, Sept KC was at $7.4525 up 13.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments July 24
Wheat Weekly Comments July 24
In Monday’s session winter wheat gapped higher on the opening bell but faded to end close out the night session steady soft. Mpls opened the session steady but pushed higher to end the night session higher. The day session had all three wheat exchanges trading mixed. Wheat struggled due to another week of disappointing export shipments. Reports of rain overnight in the Northern Plains added pressure, but that rain was very spotty and isolated. Losses were kept in check by an escalation in the war in Iran as well as in the Black Sea region, which is slowing movement of grain. Expectations that the afternoon’s Crop Progress report will not bring bullish news to wheat added selling pressure.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to lower and proceeded to extend session losses throughout the night session. Early selling spilled over from the lower corn and soybean markets. Light pressure was due to weather forecasts calling for a bit of a reprieve from the heat in the Northern Plains. Technical pressure was also evident early as traders took profits off the table. Wheat was able to brush off the pressure and turn higher in the day session. Support came from a lower-than-expected winter wheat harvest pace as well as from another large decline in spring wheat ratings. War concerns added support late as vessels are reportedly turning around and not going through the Strait of Hormuz due to fear of attack. In world news, SovEcon trimmed Russia’s wheat production estimate 600 TMT to 88.3 MMT.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction, but it did not take long for Mpls and KC to join Chicago on the plus side. Early support was due to reports of logistic issues for wheat as the escalation in the war between Ukraine and Russia is starting to cause disruption in vessel logistics and has even resulted in some ships looking to take alternative routes. Weather forecasts added support as hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate the Northern Plains for the next 7 to 10 days.
Day 1 of the Wheat Quality Tour had a yield estimate of 45.9 bus vs 49.8 bus last year. Wednesday’s leg went west and north of Bismarck and will end up in Devils Lake. Light support spilled over from the EU wheat contract, which was also sharply higher due to production concerns as hot and dry conditions linger there as well. Technically Chicago and KC traded to new contract highs while Mpls hasn’t.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened lower across the board but managed to firm and trade mixed by the end of the night session. Selling was tied to profit taking and position squaring ahead of the weekend. Technical selling was also evident as Mpls wheat has rallied $1.365 cents since the end of June. Winter wheat was pressured by last week’s disappointing export sales estimate. Selling was also due to the radar showing good rains in KS and NE this morning.
A better-than-expected yield from Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Tour added pressure. The tour put day 2 yields at 48.1 bus vs 46.2 bus last year. The tour wrapped up Thursday covering the north central and northwestern regions of ND. Losses were kept in check in Mpls due to adverse weather forecasts which if realized this weekend could result in a lot of the spring wheat crops maturing prematurely. Wheat looks tired so don’t be surprised to see a lower session on Friday.
Sept Mpls support is at $6.45, Sept Chicago wheat support is $6.27; Sept KC support is $6.65.
For the week, Sept MIAX was at $7.1425 up 22.5 cents, Sept Chicago was at $6.78 down 4.75 cents, Sept KC was at $7.4525 up 13.0 cents.