To start the week wheat opened the session steady to lower with Chicago lower while the other three wheat contracts started the session steady. All three slipped slightly lower by the end of the night session with early selling tied to last minute position squaring ahead of today’s reports. The reports were mixed for the wheat as the stocks estimate was bearish while the acreage estimate brought mixed news. The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate came in at 851 MB, 15 MB above expectations and 155 MB above last year. According to the report elevators are holding 80% of the wheat stocks while on farm storage is holding 20%.
The Acreage estimate was mixed wheat as winter wheat acreage was negative while spring wheat acreage was friendly. All wheat acreage was estimated at 45.48 million, 40,000 acres above expectations, 128,000 acreages above the March estimate, but 601,000 acres below last year. Winter wheat acreage was estimated at 33.33 million, 26,000 acres above expectations, 1,000 acres above the March estimate, but 65,000 acres below last year.
Other spring wheat acreage was estimated at 10.05 million, 33,000 acres below expectations, 25,000 acres above March, but 580,000 acres below last year. Durum acreage is estimated at 2.1 million acres, up 84,000 acres from expectations, up 93,000 acres from expectations, and up 44,000 acres.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session lower in all 4 contracts and proceeded to extend session losses throughout the night and into the start of the day session. Early selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed a slight decrease in crop ratings, and a rapidly advancing harvest as drier conditions have moved into the Southern Plains. But losses were trimmed late in the day after traders had a chance to digest the early Monday report a little more. The surprise in the numbers came in the harvested acreage number as USDA reduced harvested acreage 550,000 acres, which results in a 20 MB cut to supply. That will make a sizable reduction to wheat stocks in the July Supply and Demand estimate. A lower US dollar added support, which is trading at lows not seen in 3.5 years. In world news, Ukraine’s wheat export marketing year ended June 30. For the year Ukraine’s wheat exports totaled 15.72 MMT vs 18.5 MMT last year.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened the session steady to lower and continued to trade in that fashion throughout the overnight. Early selling was tied to no threatening weather forecasts. Forecasts call for drier weather for the Southern Plains, which should help harvest activity to advance, added pressure early. News that a trade deal has been completed with Vietnam added support as they have added to increase purchases of US ag products. Weather concerns in the Northern Plains and Canada added support. Tuesday’s session saw wheat open interest increase, which means new buyers are entering the market. Technically Wednesday’s close gives the wheat market hope.
For the week, Sept Mpls MIAX was at $6.4725 up 19.25 cents, Sept CME HRS was at $6.29 up 3.25 cents, Sept Chicago was at $5.5675 up 16.0 cents, Sept KC was at $5.36 up 2.25 cents.
For the month, Sept MIAX Mpls was down 16.5 cents, Sept CME HRS was down 13.75 cents, Sept Chicago was down 10.0 cents, Sept KC was down 20.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments July 3
Wheat Weekly Comments July 3
To start the week wheat opened the session steady to lower with Chicago lower while the other three wheat contracts started the session steady. All three slipped slightly lower by the end of the night session with early selling tied to last minute position squaring ahead of today’s reports. The reports were mixed for the wheat as the stocks estimate was bearish while the acreage estimate brought mixed news. The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate came in at 851 MB, 15 MB above expectations and 155 MB above last year. According to the report elevators are holding 80% of the wheat stocks while on farm storage is holding 20%.
The Acreage estimate was mixed wheat as winter wheat acreage was negative while spring wheat acreage was friendly. All wheat acreage was estimated at 45.48 million, 40,000 acres above expectations, 128,000 acreages above the March estimate, but 601,000 acres below last year. Winter wheat acreage was estimated at 33.33 million, 26,000 acres above expectations, 1,000 acres above the March estimate, but 65,000 acres below last year.
Other spring wheat acreage was estimated at 10.05 million, 33,000 acres below expectations, 25,000 acres above March, but 580,000 acres below last year. Durum acreage is estimated at 2.1 million acres, up 84,000 acres from expectations, up 93,000 acres from expectations, and up 44,000 acres.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session lower in all 4 contracts and proceeded to extend session losses throughout the night and into the start of the day session. Early selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed a slight decrease in crop ratings, and a rapidly advancing harvest as drier conditions have moved into the Southern Plains. But losses were trimmed late in the day after traders had a chance to digest the early Monday report a little more. The surprise in the numbers came in the harvested acreage number as USDA reduced harvested acreage 550,000 acres, which results in a 20 MB cut to supply. That will make a sizable reduction to wheat stocks in the July Supply and Demand estimate. A lower US dollar added support, which is trading at lows not seen in 3.5 years. In world news, Ukraine’s wheat export marketing year ended June 30. For the year Ukraine’s wheat exports totaled 15.72 MMT vs 18.5 MMT last year.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened the session steady to lower and continued to trade in that fashion throughout the overnight. Early selling was tied to no threatening weather forecasts. Forecasts call for drier weather for the Southern Plains, which should help harvest activity to advance, added pressure early. News that a trade deal has been completed with Vietnam added support as they have added to increase purchases of US ag products. Weather concerns in the Northern Plains and Canada added support. Tuesday’s session saw wheat open interest increase, which means new buyers are entering the market. Technically Wednesday’s close gives the wheat market hope.
For the week, Sept Mpls MIAX was at $6.4725 up 19.25 cents, Sept CME HRS was at $6.29 up 3.25 cents, Sept Chicago was at $5.5675 up 16.0 cents, Sept KC was at $5.36 up 2.25 cents.
For the month, Sept MIAX Mpls was down 16.5 cents, Sept CME HRS was down 13.75 cents, Sept Chicago was down 10.0 cents, Sept KC was down 20.25 cents.