Wheat opened Monday’s session mixed with the winter wheat exchanges starting the session higher while Mpls faded the opening. Early selling was tied to reports of a quiet weekend as both the US and Iran staged an impromptu ceasefire. Light selling was tied to technical selling as traders tried to correct an overbought market condition. A disagreement in the two major weather models added support as the GFS model is calling for hot dry conditions while the Euro model dials down the heat and increases the rain chances. In world news, IKAR lowered their wheat production estimate for Russia 1.5 MMT to 90.0 MMT. Light selling was tied to spill over pressure from the lower Matif wheat contract.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction. Mpls was lower, Chicago higher, and KC steady. But wheat faded and by the end of the night all three exchanges were trading lower. Early selling was tied to a better than expected crop condition rating for spring wheat. Conditions were expected to drop, but instead conditions were left unchanged. ND’s crop declined 6% and SD declined 15%, but that was offset by an 18% increase in MT’s crop. Spring wheat harvest has started so actual yields will give the market direction. Weather will not have as much of an influence on spring wheat conditions moving forward since harvest is under way. The Northern Plains are still expected to see above normal temps and below normal precip for the next 7 to 10 days. Thursday is the next chance for rain.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges were higher. By the end of the night the roles had reversed as Mpls was trading with gains and the winter wheat contracts were lower. Mpls was pressured early by forecasts calling for rain while the winter wheat exchanges were supported by an escalation in the war with Iran as well as another surge in attacks between Russia and Ukraine. Wheat turned to trade mixed throughout the day session, but Mpls managed to hold its gains throughout the session. Reports have 3 major Russian Black Sea grain export facilities restricting truck delivery. These 3 facilities handle 40% of the annual seaborne exports. The US Ag Attache in Australia is estimating their wheat production at 31 MMT vs 28 MMT previously.
On Thursday wheat opened lower across the board and continued to trade in that fashion through the early morning hours. Around 1 AM wheat had a buying surge brought on by report of Ukraine taking out another one of Russia’s major export ports. The escalation in the war with Iran added support. Gains were kept in check by improving weather forecasts calling for rain and moderating temps for the Northern Plains. The Drought Monitor map shows the US is in 68% (up 2.5%) of some stage of drought while ND has 78% of the state in some stage of drought, up 25% from last week. MN has 95% of the state is some stage of drought, up 9%.
Sept Mpls support is at $6.45, Sept Chicago wheat support is $6.27; Sept KC support is $6.65.
For the week, Sept MIAX was at $6.8975 down 24.5 cents, Sept Chicago was at $6.3925 down 38.75 cents, Sept KC was at $7.075 down 37.75 cents.
For the month, Sept MIAX was up 83.25 cents, Sept Chicago was up 50.0 cents, Sept KC was up 82.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments July 31
Wheat Weekly Comments July 31
Wheat opened Monday’s session mixed with the winter wheat exchanges starting the session higher while Mpls faded the opening. Early selling was tied to reports of a quiet weekend as both the US and Iran staged an impromptu ceasefire. Light selling was tied to technical selling as traders tried to correct an overbought market condition. A disagreement in the two major weather models added support as the GFS model is calling for hot dry conditions while the Euro model dials down the heat and increases the rain chances. In world news, IKAR lowered their wheat production estimate for Russia 1.5 MMT to 90.0 MMT. Light selling was tied to spill over pressure from the lower Matif wheat contract.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction. Mpls was lower, Chicago higher, and KC steady. But wheat faded and by the end of the night all three exchanges were trading lower. Early selling was tied to a better than expected crop condition rating for spring wheat. Conditions were expected to drop, but instead conditions were left unchanged. ND’s crop declined 6% and SD declined 15%, but that was offset by an 18% increase in MT’s crop. Spring wheat harvest has started so actual yields will give the market direction. Weather will not have as much of an influence on spring wheat conditions moving forward since harvest is under way. The Northern Plains are still expected to see above normal temps and below normal precip for the next 7 to 10 days. Thursday is the next chance for rain.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges were higher. By the end of the night the roles had reversed as Mpls was trading with gains and the winter wheat contracts were lower. Mpls was pressured early by forecasts calling for rain while the winter wheat exchanges were supported by an escalation in the war with Iran as well as another surge in attacks between Russia and Ukraine. Wheat turned to trade mixed throughout the day session, but Mpls managed to hold its gains throughout the session. Reports have 3 major Russian Black Sea grain export facilities restricting truck delivery. These 3 facilities handle 40% of the annual seaborne exports. The US Ag Attache in Australia is estimating their wheat production at 31 MMT vs 28 MMT previously.
On Thursday wheat opened lower across the board and continued to trade in that fashion through the early morning hours. Around 1 AM wheat had a buying surge brought on by report of Ukraine taking out another one of Russia’s major export ports. The escalation in the war with Iran added support. Gains were kept in check by improving weather forecasts calling for rain and moderating temps for the Northern Plains. The Drought Monitor map shows the US is in 68% (up 2.5%) of some stage of drought while ND has 78% of the state in some stage of drought, up 25% from last week. MN has 95% of the state is some stage of drought, up 9%.
Sept Mpls support is at $6.45, Sept Chicago wheat support is $6.27; Sept KC support is $6.65.
For the week, Sept MIAX was at $6.8975 down 24.5 cents, Sept Chicago was at $6.3925 down 38.75 cents, Sept KC was at $7.075 down 37.75 cents.
For the month, Sept MIAX was up 83.25 cents, Sept Chicago was up 50.0 cents, Sept KC was up 82.25 cents.