To start the week wheat gapped lower on the open, but not as bad as the other crops. But like the other crops wheat extended its losses throughout the night into the day session. Early selling pressure spilled over from the other grains, but light pressure was tied to the comments that the China summit might be delayed due to the Iran war. Early losses were kept in check from weather forecasts calling for adverse weather for the US Southern Plains and Black Sea region. Technically, wheat is testing the bottom of its 5-day trading range. At this point, no damage has been done to the charts.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened with each exchange going its own direction. All three-wheat exchanges continued to trade in a mixed fashion throughout the night. Selling took charge once the day session got under way with early selling tied to slow demand and improving conditions in the Black Sea region. The lack of damage reports from this past weekend’s freezing temps in the US Southern Plains added pressure. Weather forecasts continue to show adverse weather conditions with record temps in the forecast for late in the week through next week.
Traders ignored Monday afternoon’s weekly crop progress report, which showed another week of lower ratings. KS’s condition dropped 4% to 52% g/e (second highest in 10 years). OK’s dropped 6% to 18% g/e (lowest since 2018), TX’s rating dropped 1% to 15% g/e (lowest since 2022), and CO: down 10% to 29% g/e.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session lower in MW and KE but firm in Chicago. By the end of the night session, MW was posting solid gains while the winter wheat months were mixed. Wheat found support by the start of the day and rallied to end with solid gains. Another lower weekly crop condition rating helped to give wheat strength as conditions in KS, OK, TX and CO continued to decline. Most of the increase in winter wheat acreage came from TX and OK and it looks like those acres might not make it to harvest. Weather forecasts calling for hot dry conditions to continue in TX and OK added support.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened steady in Mpls but with gains in the winter wheat exchanges. Early support came from weather concerns as hot and dry conditions remain in the forecast for the US Southern Plains. Fund short covering teamed up with production concerns to help push wheat higher in the overnight session. Wheat faded its gains once the day session got started with selling tied to reports of rain showing up in the long-term weather forecast for the Southern Plains. Light selling was also tied to reports that Sovecon increased their production estimate for Russia from 85.9 MMT to 87.6 MMT.
Private analysts are starting to release their 2026 acreage estimates. S&P global is estimating all wheat acres at 44.05 million while Allendale is estimating acres at 44.88 million vs 45.33 million last year and vs 45.0 million from the Ag Outlook Forum.
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.28 down 17.5 cents, May Chicago was at $5.9525 down 18.5 cents, May KC was at $6.0625 down 23.75 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments March 20
Wheat Weekly Comments March 20
To start the week wheat gapped lower on the open, but not as bad as the other crops. But like the other crops wheat extended its losses throughout the night into the day session. Early selling pressure spilled over from the other grains, but light pressure was tied to the comments that the China summit might be delayed due to the Iran war. Early losses were kept in check from weather forecasts calling for adverse weather for the US Southern Plains and Black Sea region. Technically, wheat is testing the bottom of its 5-day trading range. At this point, no damage has been done to the charts.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened with each exchange going its own direction. All three-wheat exchanges continued to trade in a mixed fashion throughout the night. Selling took charge once the day session got under way with early selling tied to slow demand and improving conditions in the Black Sea region. The lack of damage reports from this past weekend’s freezing temps in the US Southern Plains added pressure. Weather forecasts continue to show adverse weather conditions with record temps in the forecast for late in the week through next week.
Traders ignored Monday afternoon’s weekly crop progress report, which showed another week of lower ratings. KS’s condition dropped 4% to 52% g/e (second highest in 10 years). OK’s dropped 6% to 18% g/e (lowest since 2018), TX’s rating dropped 1% to 15% g/e (lowest since 2022), and CO: down 10% to 29% g/e.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session lower in MW and KE but firm in Chicago. By the end of the night session, MW was posting solid gains while the winter wheat months were mixed. Wheat found support by the start of the day and rallied to end with solid gains. Another lower weekly crop condition rating helped to give wheat strength as conditions in KS, OK, TX and CO continued to decline. Most of the increase in winter wheat acreage came from TX and OK and it looks like those acres might not make it to harvest. Weather forecasts calling for hot dry conditions to continue in TX and OK added support.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened steady in Mpls but with gains in the winter wheat exchanges. Early support came from weather concerns as hot and dry conditions remain in the forecast for the US Southern Plains. Fund short covering teamed up with production concerns to help push wheat higher in the overnight session. Wheat faded its gains once the day session got started with selling tied to reports of rain showing up in the long-term weather forecast for the Southern Plains. Light selling was also tied to reports that Sovecon increased their production estimate for Russia from 85.9 MMT to 87.6 MMT.
Private analysts are starting to release their 2026 acreage estimates. S&P global is estimating all wheat acres at 44.05 million while Allendale is estimating acres at 44.88 million vs 45.33 million last year and vs 45.0 million from the Ag Outlook Forum.
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.28 down 17.5 cents, May Chicago was at $5.9525 down 18.5 cents, May KC was at $6.0625 down 23.75 cents.