To start the week wheat opened mixed with Mpls lower while the winter wheat exchanges pushed higher. The winter wheat exchanges were supported by weather concerns in the Southern Plains as temps in the south were breaking records over the weekend. Expectations of lower crop ratings in this afternoon’s individual state reports added support. Support also spilled over from the other grains. But once the news of Trump’s order for the military to stand down for the next 5 days was made public, the markets turned on a dime and faded lower following a sharply lower crude oil market. IGC is estimating world wheat production at 822 MMT vs 845 MMT previously. US wheat production is estimated at 50.7 MMT vs 54 MMT previously.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened mixed but managed to shake off its early selling pressure and turned higher soon after opening. Early support came from Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed another decline in winter wheat ratings. KS’s crop dropped 6% to 46% g/e, while OK’s crop dropped 4% to 14% g/e, CO’s crop dropped 5% to 24% g/e, and TX improved 1% to 16% g/e. Forecasts calling for warm dry conditions to continue for the next 7 to 10 days before any major rain added support. Gains were kept in check from forecasts calling for rain in the 11-to-15-day forecast.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session with each exchange going in its own direction (MW higher, Chicago lower, KC steady). All three turned lower once the night session got under way with pressure coming from talk of a possible 30-day cease fire with Iran. But by midsession of the day session wheat found support and slowly started to post a recovery. Buying was centered on weather concerns in the Southern Plains as warm dry conditions are expected to linger for the next 7 to 10 days. This will result in another week of lower crop ratings on Monday. Acreage concerns in the Northern Plains added support to MW as it is not a matter if spring wheat acreage declines, it’s a matter of how much it will decline.
All of the wheat exchanges ended Thursday’s session with gains, with the winter wheat markets seeing larger gains than Mpls. Support came from ongoing hot and dry conditions in the US Southern Plains. 57% of winter wheat acres are in some level of drought per this week’s drought monitor map. 85% of TX and 94% of OK are in the D1 level of drought or higher. Spillover support came from the gains in the crude oil market. Last week’s export sales were at the top of the range of trade expectations.
Ahead of Tuesday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, the average trade estimate for March 1 wheat stocks is 1.295 BB vs. 1.237 BB last March. Ahead of Tuesday’s Prospective Plantings Report, the average trade estimate for all wheat acres is 44.786 million vs. 45.328 million last year and the Feb. Ag Outlook Forum estimate of 45.0 million acres. Spring wheat acres are estimated at 9.843 million vs. 9.99 million last year. Durum acres are estimated at 2.050 million vs. 2.185 million last year. Winter wheat acres are estimated at 32.730 million vs. 33.153 million last year.
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.4825 up 20.25 cents, May Chicago was at $6.05 up 9.75 cents, May KC was at $6.335 up 27.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments March 27
Wheat Weekly Comments March 27
To start the week wheat opened mixed with Mpls lower while the winter wheat exchanges pushed higher. The winter wheat exchanges were supported by weather concerns in the Southern Plains as temps in the south were breaking records over the weekend. Expectations of lower crop ratings in this afternoon’s individual state reports added support. Support also spilled over from the other grains. But once the news of Trump’s order for the military to stand down for the next 5 days was made public, the markets turned on a dime and faded lower following a sharply lower crude oil market. IGC is estimating world wheat production at 822 MMT vs 845 MMT previously. US wheat production is estimated at 50.7 MMT vs 54 MMT previously.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened mixed but managed to shake off its early selling pressure and turned higher soon after opening. Early support came from Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed another decline in winter wheat ratings. KS’s crop dropped 6% to 46% g/e, while OK’s crop dropped 4% to 14% g/e, CO’s crop dropped 5% to 24% g/e, and TX improved 1% to 16% g/e. Forecasts calling for warm dry conditions to continue for the next 7 to 10 days before any major rain added support. Gains were kept in check from forecasts calling for rain in the 11-to-15-day forecast.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session with each exchange going in its own direction (MW higher, Chicago lower, KC steady). All three turned lower once the night session got under way with pressure coming from talk of a possible 30-day cease fire with Iran. But by midsession of the day session wheat found support and slowly started to post a recovery. Buying was centered on weather concerns in the Southern Plains as warm dry conditions are expected to linger for the next 7 to 10 days. This will result in another week of lower crop ratings on Monday. Acreage concerns in the Northern Plains added support to MW as it is not a matter if spring wheat acreage declines, it’s a matter of how much it will decline.
All of the wheat exchanges ended Thursday’s session with gains, with the winter wheat markets seeing larger gains than Mpls. Support came from ongoing hot and dry conditions in the US Southern Plains. 57% of winter wheat acres are in some level of drought per this week’s drought monitor map. 85% of TX and 94% of OK are in the D1 level of drought or higher. Spillover support came from the gains in the crude oil market. Last week’s export sales were at the top of the range of trade expectations.
Ahead of Tuesday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report, the average trade estimate for March 1 wheat stocks is 1.295 BB vs. 1.237 BB last March. Ahead of Tuesday’s Prospective Plantings Report, the average trade estimate for all wheat acres is 44.786 million vs. 45.328 million last year and the Feb. Ag Outlook Forum estimate of 45.0 million acres. Spring wheat acres are estimated at 9.843 million vs. 9.99 million last year. Durum acres are estimated at 2.050 million vs. 2.185 million last year. Winter wheat acres are estimated at 32.730 million vs. 33.153 million last year.
Hedgers should target Sept $6.95 to start selling 2026 wheat.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.4825 up 20.25 cents, May Chicago was at $6.05 up 9.75 cents, May KC was at $6.335 up 27.25 cents.