To start the week wheat gapped higher on the opening bell with support coming from the military action against Iran. Logistic concerns were the main supporting factor as it appears that the Strait of Hormuz will see limited vessel traffic due to the war. The base price for crop insurance for HRS wheat was $6.19 vs $6.55 last year. According to last week’s Drought Monitor map, 50% of the nation’s winter wheat crop is in some stage of drought. Canada is reporting wheat exports for the year up 10% year over year.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened lower in all three exchanges but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher by the end of the night session. Early selling was tied to uncertainty on the war with Iran. Wheat was able to shake off the war concerns and push higher with support coming from production concerns not only in the US but also Black Sea region. Wheat turned to trade mixed once the day session started with selling once again tied the war uncertainty. Reports have the Strait of Hormuz closed, which will result in a slowdown in grain movement and fertilizer availability. Freight rates are expected to increase as many vessels are now going around Africa, which is safer but adds time and costs.
Wheat traded in a narrow range around unchanged overnight and then added a few cents to the losses to close lower on Wednesday. Technical selling, spillover pressure from the lower corn and soybean markets, and rains in the forecast for the Southern Plains all helped to pull wheat lower. Iran is the 3rd largest buyer of Russian wheat, but Russia has reportedly already shipped 95% of Iran’s wheat purchases for this marketing year before the conflict with the US and Israel began. The EU lowered their soft wheat export estimate by 1.0 MMT and increased ending stocks by 1.4 MMT.
On Thursday wheat opened with each exchange going in its own direction, but it did not take long for wheat to reverse direction and push higher throughout the rest of the night and to extend session gains during the day. Early support came from weather forecasts moving rain further to the east and lessening amounts.
Stats Canada released their 2026 acreage estimates Thursday morning. All wheat acres were estimated at 26.7 million, 300,000 acres lower than last year but 300,000 acres more than expected. Spring wheat acres came in at 18.8 million, unchanged from last year and as expected. Durum acres were at 6.4 million, down 100,000 acres from last year but 200,000 acres more than expected.
Ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 922 MB vs. 931 MB last month. World ending stocks are estimated at 277.5 MMT, unchanged from last month.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.43 up 30.25 cents, May Chicago was at $6.1675 up 25.25 cents, May KC was at $6.235 up 43.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments March 6
Wheat Weekly Comments March 6
To start the week wheat gapped higher on the opening bell with support coming from the military action against Iran. Logistic concerns were the main supporting factor as it appears that the Strait of Hormuz will see limited vessel traffic due to the war. The base price for crop insurance for HRS wheat was $6.19 vs $6.55 last year. According to last week’s Drought Monitor map, 50% of the nation’s winter wheat crop is in some stage of drought. Canada is reporting wheat exports for the year up 10% year over year.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened lower in all three exchanges but managed to shake off the early selling pressure and turn higher by the end of the night session. Early selling was tied to uncertainty on the war with Iran. Wheat was able to shake off the war concerns and push higher with support coming from production concerns not only in the US but also Black Sea region. Wheat turned to trade mixed once the day session started with selling once again tied the war uncertainty. Reports have the Strait of Hormuz closed, which will result in a slowdown in grain movement and fertilizer availability. Freight rates are expected to increase as many vessels are now going around Africa, which is safer but adds time and costs.
Wheat traded in a narrow range around unchanged overnight and then added a few cents to the losses to close lower on Wednesday. Technical selling, spillover pressure from the lower corn and soybean markets, and rains in the forecast for the Southern Plains all helped to pull wheat lower. Iran is the 3rd largest buyer of Russian wheat, but Russia has reportedly already shipped 95% of Iran’s wheat purchases for this marketing year before the conflict with the US and Israel began. The EU lowered their soft wheat export estimate by 1.0 MMT and increased ending stocks by 1.4 MMT.
On Thursday wheat opened with each exchange going in its own direction, but it did not take long for wheat to reverse direction and push higher throughout the rest of the night and to extend session gains during the day. Early support came from weather forecasts moving rain further to the east and lessening amounts.
Stats Canada released their 2026 acreage estimates Thursday morning. All wheat acres were estimated at 26.7 million, 300,000 acres lower than last year but 300,000 acres more than expected. Spring wheat acres came in at 18.8 million, unchanged from last year and as expected. Durum acres were at 6.4 million, down 100,000 acres from last year but 200,000 acres more than expected.
Ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report, the average trade estimate for US ending stocks is 922 MB vs. 931 MB last month. World ending stocks are estimated at 277.5 MMT, unchanged from last month.
May MIAX MW support is $5.80, May Chicago wheat support is $5.50, May KC support is $5.45.
For the week, May Mpls MIAX was at $6.43 up 30.25 cents, May Chicago was at $6.1675 up 25.25 cents, May KC was at $6.235 up 43.0 cents.