To start the week wheat opened the session higher and held onto its gains throughout the night session. But wheat faded its gains once the day session started. Early support was due to technical buying. Gains were trimmed once the day session started due to spillover selling from the lower corn and soybeans markets. Selling was also tied to tariff concerns as it appears inevitable that some sort of tariff will be placed on Mexico and Canada tonight. In world news, ABARES is estimating Australia wheat production at 34.1 MMT vs 31.9 MMT previously.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with Mpls and Chicago steady while KC was on the defense. Selling pressure increased as the night session advanced and heavy selling came into play once the day session started. Sad to say, but Mpls and Chicago have lost their entire gains while KC is holding onto a small portion of its late winter gains. Technically, wheat is extremely oversold and in need of a correction. The fact that wheat has lost ground 8 of the last 10 seasons adds to the need for a correction. Selling was tied to reports that China placed 15% tariff on US wheat imports, but that really should not have a bearing on US wheat prices as China has not bought any significant amount of US wheat in two years. Canda also applied 25% tariffs to $20.7 billion of US exports to Canada and are looking to apply tariffs on another $86.3 billion in 21 days.
All of the wheat exchanges closed higher Wednesday with Chi seeing the largest gains. Aside from the tariff roller coaster, news from Russia was supportive. The group that handles logistics for Russian grain exports lowered their estimate of 2024/25 wheat exports from 42.0 MMT to somewhere between 40.0 and 41.0 MMT. USDA’s current estimate is 45.5 MMT. In addition, Russia’s state meteorologist noted that while the winter wheat crop is in pretty good shape right now, there is a lack of soil moisture in many parts of Russia.
On Thursday wheat opened the session steady to higher and extended session gains early. Technical buying added support early as traders try to correct an oversold market condition. Bargain hunting buying added support as traders bounced off new contract lows. Light support came from rumors that Trump is considering relaxing tariffs on some ag products, but by midsession news broke that the 25% tariff on Mexico was being delayed until April, which helped give wheat strength to bounce. After the close reports surfaced that the 25% tariffs on Canada were also being delayed until April.
USDA is set to release their March Crop Production report on Tuesday. Early estimates have wheat stocks at 797 MB vs 794 MB last month. World wheat stocks are estimated at 257.6 MMT vs 257.6 MMT last month.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
Monday afternoon, USDA released their Feb Crop Progress observations. The Month of Feb brought a mixed bag of weather to winter wheat as some states saw declines while others improved. For the month Of Feb the following states saw the following changes to their winter wheat crop: CO: 67% g/e, +10%, IL: 56% g/e, -9%, KS: 54% g/e, +4%, MT: 67% g/e, -4%, NE: 23% g/e, -2%, NC: 69% g/e, +13%, OK: 35% g/e, +1%, SD: 16% good, -9%, and TX: 34% g/e, -4%.
For the week, May Mpls was at $5.9275 down 5.0 cents, May Chicago was at $5.5125 down 4.5 cents, May KC was at $5.6475 down 8.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments March 7
Wheat Weekly Comments March 7
To start the week wheat opened the session higher and held onto its gains throughout the night session. But wheat faded its gains once the day session started. Early support was due to technical buying. Gains were trimmed once the day session started due to spillover selling from the lower corn and soybeans markets. Selling was also tied to tariff concerns as it appears inevitable that some sort of tariff will be placed on Mexico and Canada tonight. In world news, ABARES is estimating Australia wheat production at 34.1 MMT vs 31.9 MMT previously.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with Mpls and Chicago steady while KC was on the defense. Selling pressure increased as the night session advanced and heavy selling came into play once the day session started. Sad to say, but Mpls and Chicago have lost their entire gains while KC is holding onto a small portion of its late winter gains. Technically, wheat is extremely oversold and in need of a correction. The fact that wheat has lost ground 8 of the last 10 seasons adds to the need for a correction. Selling was tied to reports that China placed 15% tariff on US wheat imports, but that really should not have a bearing on US wheat prices as China has not bought any significant amount of US wheat in two years. Canda also applied 25% tariffs to $20.7 billion of US exports to Canada and are looking to apply tariffs on another $86.3 billion in 21 days.
All of the wheat exchanges closed higher Wednesday with Chi seeing the largest gains. Aside from the tariff roller coaster, news from Russia was supportive. The group that handles logistics for Russian grain exports lowered their estimate of 2024/25 wheat exports from 42.0 MMT to somewhere between 40.0 and 41.0 MMT. USDA’s current estimate is 45.5 MMT. In addition, Russia’s state meteorologist noted that while the winter wheat crop is in pretty good shape right now, there is a lack of soil moisture in many parts of Russia.
On Thursday wheat opened the session steady to higher and extended session gains early. Technical buying added support early as traders try to correct an oversold market condition. Bargain hunting buying added support as traders bounced off new contract lows. Light support came from rumors that Trump is considering relaxing tariffs on some ag products, but by midsession news broke that the 25% tariff on Mexico was being delayed until April, which helped give wheat strength to bounce. After the close reports surfaced that the 25% tariffs on Canada were also being delayed until April.
USDA is set to release their March Crop Production report on Tuesday. Early estimates have wheat stocks at 797 MB vs 794 MB last month. World wheat stocks are estimated at 257.6 MMT vs 257.6 MMT last month.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
Monday afternoon, USDA released their Feb Crop Progress observations. The Month of Feb brought a mixed bag of weather to winter wheat as some states saw declines while others improved. For the month Of Feb the following states saw the following changes to their winter wheat crop: CO: 67% g/e, +10%, IL: 56% g/e, -9%, KS: 54% g/e, +4%, MT: 67% g/e, -4%, NE: 23% g/e, -2%, NC: 69% g/e, +13%, OK: 35% g/e, +1%, SD: 16% good, -9%, and TX: 34% g/e, -4%.
For the week, May Mpls was at $5.9275 down 5.0 cents, May Chicago was at $5.5125 down 4.5 cents, May KC was at $5.6475 down 8.25 cents.