To start the week wheat opened the session lower with KC gapping lower right out of the gate. The selling pressure was enough to push Chicago and KC to new contract lows. Mpls remains above contract lows. Early selling was tied to improving growing conditions not only in the US but also in India and the Black Sea region. The improving world outlook is removing concerns for tight world supplies. Good rain blanketed the Southern Plains last week and so far, today the southern regions of ND along with northern SD and western MN are seeing good rains. The lack of news on current trade talks and reports that China is saying they can get along without importing grain the US added pressure. Traders are expecting wheat crop conditions to show solid improvement in Monday afternoon’s crop progress report as well as strong planting progress for spring wheat.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the session higher and extended gains throughout the night. Early support was due to profit taking and position squaring ahead of month end. Selling returned to the wheat complex not long after the day session started with selling tied to conflicting reports on the status of trade talks with China. The lack of export demand and improving growing conditions around the world added selling pressure as this could be the first time in years that world wheat stocks (excluding China) increase. Mpls was the odd exchange today as the front month May was trading with strong gains while the deferred months were lower, pushing the market to trade inverted. This is signaling the need for quality wheat.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the day. Early support came from technical buying as most wheat months are oversold and in need of a correction. Improving weather conditions and disappointing demand added pressure. Tariff concerns added pressure to wheat as although there are a number of countries lining up to negotiate new trade deals, no one has signed one as of yet. Reports have India is on the verge of signing. Forecasts are calling for more rain for the Southern Plains late week and at this point the market does not know if that is friendly or negative as some areas are starting to see drown out.
Mpls was once again the wheat market to watch as the front month May contract pushed sharply higher while the deferred months saw small gains. It appears that traders are trying to flush out good quality wheat, and with commercial firms holding a majority of the wheat right now, pushing the May contract just might work.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the session mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges were higher. Early market activity was centered on weather as rain continues to fall in the Northern Plains (needed) as well in the Southern Plains (not needed as much anymore). Reports from China stating that the US has reached out to start trade discussions added support. Light support came from reports Russia has increased their wheat export tax. BAGE is estimating Argentina 2025 wheat production at 20.5 MMT vs 18.6 MMT last year, which if realized would be the second largest wheat crop for Argentina in history, added pressure.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, May Mpls was at $6.165 up 25.25 cents, while July was at $6.11 up 4.75 cents, May Chicagfo was at $5.265 down 3.5 cents while July was at $5.43 down 2.0 cents, May KC was at $5.285 down 9.5 cents while July was at $5.4125 down 9.75 cents.
For the month, May Mpls was up 22.0 cents while July was down 9.75 cents. May Chicago was down 24.0 cents while July was down 19.75 cents, May KC was down 42.75 cents while July was down 40.5 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments May 2
Wheat Weekly Comments May 2
To start the week wheat opened the session lower with KC gapping lower right out of the gate. The selling pressure was enough to push Chicago and KC to new contract lows. Mpls remains above contract lows. Early selling was tied to improving growing conditions not only in the US but also in India and the Black Sea region. The improving world outlook is removing concerns for tight world supplies. Good rain blanketed the Southern Plains last week and so far, today the southern regions of ND along with northern SD and western MN are seeing good rains. The lack of news on current trade talks and reports that China is saying they can get along without importing grain the US added pressure. Traders are expecting wheat crop conditions to show solid improvement in Monday afternoon’s crop progress report as well as strong planting progress for spring wheat.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened the session higher and extended gains throughout the night. Early support was due to profit taking and position squaring ahead of month end. Selling returned to the wheat complex not long after the day session started with selling tied to conflicting reports on the status of trade talks with China. The lack of export demand and improving growing conditions around the world added selling pressure as this could be the first time in years that world wheat stocks (excluding China) increase. Mpls was the odd exchange today as the front month May was trading with strong gains while the deferred months were lower, pushing the market to trade inverted. This is signaling the need for quality wheat.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session higher and extended session gains throughout the night and into the day. Early support came from technical buying as most wheat months are oversold and in need of a correction. Improving weather conditions and disappointing demand added pressure. Tariff concerns added pressure to wheat as although there are a number of countries lining up to negotiate new trade deals, no one has signed one as of yet. Reports have India is on the verge of signing. Forecasts are calling for more rain for the Southern Plains late week and at this point the market does not know if that is friendly or negative as some areas are starting to see drown out.
Mpls was once again the wheat market to watch as the front month May contract pushed sharply higher while the deferred months saw small gains. It appears that traders are trying to flush out good quality wheat, and with commercial firms holding a majority of the wheat right now, pushing the May contract just might work.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the session mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges were higher. Early market activity was centered on weather as rain continues to fall in the Northern Plains (needed) as well in the Southern Plains (not needed as much anymore). Reports from China stating that the US has reached out to start trade discussions added support. Light support came from reports Russia has increased their wheat export tax. BAGE is estimating Argentina 2025 wheat production at 20.5 MMT vs 18.6 MMT last year, which if realized would be the second largest wheat crop for Argentina in history, added pressure.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, May Mpls was at $6.165 up 25.25 cents, while July was at $6.11 up 4.75 cents, May Chicagfo was at $5.265 down 3.5 cents while July was at $5.43 down 2.0 cents, May KC was at $5.285 down 9.5 cents while July was at $5.4125 down 9.75 cents.
For the month, May Mpls was up 22.0 cents while July was down 9.75 cents. May Chicago was down 24.0 cents while July was down 19.75 cents, May KC was down 42.75 cents while July was down 40.5 cents.