To start the week wheat opened the session higher across the board and with most months bouncing off major support lines due to technical buying. A sharply lower US dollar added support. According to Friday’s COT report, the funds are net short the wheat exchanges. Last week’s Wheat Quality Tour kept a lid on wheat as although the tour did not find stellar wheat, it found an above average wheat crop. Weather concerns helped to give wheat support as the cool wet conditions are on tap for the next 7 to 10 days in the Plains, which could result in further disease issues. So traders tried to add some uncertainty premium today.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with Mpls soft while the winter wheat exchanges pushed higher. It did not take long for Mpls to join the winter wheat exchanges and push higher. Early support was due to technical buying as all three wheat exchanges bounced off last week’s new contract lows in an attempt to correct an oversold condition. Weather concerns added support as the Northern Plains are starting to see a little too much rain in some regions. There is even snow in the forecast for the north central region of ND today as temps are expected to drop. Disease concerns in the Southern Plains are adding support. Harvest has started in the middle of TX, but so far field reports are scarce.
On Wednesday wheat opened the session with each exchange going in its own direction (Mpls higher, Chicago steady, KC lower). Not long after the opening bell, wheat found support and pushed higher and extended gains once the day session started. Early support came from production concerns, not only in the US but also in the Black Sea region and in China. A lower US dollar added support. The US is seeing wet conditions which will likely allow for disease pressure to increase. The Black Sea region is seeing frost issues, and China has forecasts calling for extreme heat. But even with the frost issues in the Black Sea regions, Sovecon still increased their Russian wheat production estimate 1.2 MMT to 81 MMT. BAGE is going to extend Argentina’s export tax break for wheat exports.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened lower across the board and extended session losses throughout the night. Losses were trimmed toward the end of the night session with support coming from a stronger than expected export sales estimate. The export sales report brought mixed news to wheat as old crop sales showed a cancelation while new crop sales were sharply above expectations. Early selling was tied to profit taking as recent longs took money off the table ahead of the long weekend. Technically, wheat traded to their 33% retracement from their highs in Feb to recent lows. This triggered algorithm selling. Trading was thin and light as it feels like traders have already left for the holiday.
Technically Mpls July has lost $1.00 from their Feb highs to their May low. This week’s recovery had July MW test their 33% retracement level of $6.05. The 50% retracement level sits at $6.23.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, July Mpls were at $6.065 up 33.25 cents, July Chicago was at $5.4275 up 17.5 cents, July KC was at $5.3875 up 22.25 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments May 23
Wheat Weekly Comments May 23
To start the week wheat opened the session higher across the board and with most months bouncing off major support lines due to technical buying. A sharply lower US dollar added support. According to Friday’s COT report, the funds are net short the wheat exchanges. Last week’s Wheat Quality Tour kept a lid on wheat as although the tour did not find stellar wheat, it found an above average wheat crop. Weather concerns helped to give wheat support as the cool wet conditions are on tap for the next 7 to 10 days in the Plains, which could result in further disease issues. So traders tried to add some uncertainty premium today.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with Mpls soft while the winter wheat exchanges pushed higher. It did not take long for Mpls to join the winter wheat exchanges and push higher. Early support was due to technical buying as all three wheat exchanges bounced off last week’s new contract lows in an attempt to correct an oversold condition. Weather concerns added support as the Northern Plains are starting to see a little too much rain in some regions. There is even snow in the forecast for the north central region of ND today as temps are expected to drop. Disease concerns in the Southern Plains are adding support. Harvest has started in the middle of TX, but so far field reports are scarce.
On Wednesday wheat opened the session with each exchange going in its own direction (Mpls higher, Chicago steady, KC lower). Not long after the opening bell, wheat found support and pushed higher and extended gains once the day session started. Early support came from production concerns, not only in the US but also in the Black Sea region and in China. A lower US dollar added support. The US is seeing wet conditions which will likely allow for disease pressure to increase. The Black Sea region is seeing frost issues, and China has forecasts calling for extreme heat. But even with the frost issues in the Black Sea regions, Sovecon still increased their Russian wheat production estimate 1.2 MMT to 81 MMT. BAGE is going to extend Argentina’s export tax break for wheat exports.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened lower across the board and extended session losses throughout the night. Losses were trimmed toward the end of the night session with support coming from a stronger than expected export sales estimate. The export sales report brought mixed news to wheat as old crop sales showed a cancelation while new crop sales were sharply above expectations. Early selling was tied to profit taking as recent longs took money off the table ahead of the long weekend. Technically, wheat traded to their 33% retracement from their highs in Feb to recent lows. This triggered algorithm selling. Trading was thin and light as it feels like traders have already left for the holiday.
Technically Mpls July has lost $1.00 from their Feb highs to their May low. This week’s recovery had July MW test their 33% retracement level of $6.05. The 50% retracement level sits at $6.23.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, July Mpls were at $6.065 up 33.25 cents, July Chicago was at $5.4275 up 17.5 cents, July KC was at $5.3875 up 22.25 cents.