To start the week wheat opened mixed but managed to shake off early selling and turn higher. Early selling was tied to demand concerns and increasing world production. The unwinding of spreads seems to have run its course as all three exchanges are trending in the same direction today. Wheat managed to expand its gains early with support spilling over from the other grains. Light support was also due to news that the government shutdown could be ending soon, which will result in news coming into the market to help give traders direction. Expectations for a friendly report on Friday added support. Although USDA is not releasing their Crop Progress estimates, private analysts are estimating that winter wheat planting is 93 to 97% complete with emergence estimated at 77 to 81%.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to lower but turned to trade mostly higher by the end of the night session. Early selling was tied to profit taking and position squaring while late night buying was due to technical support as the grains bounced off support. Ukraine officials are estimating 94% of their winter wheat crop is planted. Early estimates for the report have US wheat ending stocks at 867 MB vs 844 MB previously. USDA will likely lower feed demand or maybe exports. No change is expected in production since USDA released the Small Grain Summary report on Sept 30. World wheat stocks are estimated at 266.1 MMT vs 264.1 MMT previously. The Nov report will bring a lot of info into table form for wheat as it will rebalance production as well as demand for the past two years.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened steady to lower, turned lower for the overnight session, but then managed to trade mainly mixed through the day session. Early selling was tied to the lack of news as traders wait for Friday’s report. Most are not expecting much news for wheat from this report. Losses were trimmed at the start of the day session and wheat even turned higher to post small gains. Support spilled over from the other grains. Position squaring and evening up of positions ahead of Friday was also evident.
The wheat markets ended Thursday’s session mixed with all closing within a cent on either side of unchanged as the spotlight was on corn and soybeans. For the week ending 9/25/25, wheat export sales totaled 11.6 MB. USDA will release weekly reports twice a week until caught up. In world news, Russia put out their first estimates of their 2026 wheat crop with production at 83.8 MMT, down 4 MMT from last year due to lower planted spring wheat acres. Rosario Grains Exchange reported Argentina’s wheat crop is 15% harvested and estimates production at a record 24.5 MMT vs. 23.0 MMT last month. USDA’s Sept. estimate was 19.5 MMT and will likely be increased in tomorrow’s report.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.45, Dec CME MW support is $5.15, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Dec Mpls MIAX was at $5.6475 up 6.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.2725 down 0.5 cent, and Dec KC was at $5.1525 down 4.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments November 14
Wheat Weekly Comments November 14
To start the week wheat opened mixed but managed to shake off early selling and turn higher. Early selling was tied to demand concerns and increasing world production. The unwinding of spreads seems to have run its course as all three exchanges are trending in the same direction today. Wheat managed to expand its gains early with support spilling over from the other grains. Light support was also due to news that the government shutdown could be ending soon, which will result in news coming into the market to help give traders direction. Expectations for a friendly report on Friday added support. Although USDA is not releasing their Crop Progress estimates, private analysts are estimating that winter wheat planting is 93 to 97% complete with emergence estimated at 77 to 81%.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to lower but turned to trade mostly higher by the end of the night session. Early selling was tied to profit taking and position squaring while late night buying was due to technical support as the grains bounced off support. Ukraine officials are estimating 94% of their winter wheat crop is planted. Early estimates for the report have US wheat ending stocks at 867 MB vs 844 MB previously. USDA will likely lower feed demand or maybe exports. No change is expected in production since USDA released the Small Grain Summary report on Sept 30. World wheat stocks are estimated at 266.1 MMT vs 264.1 MMT previously. The Nov report will bring a lot of info into table form for wheat as it will rebalance production as well as demand for the past two years.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened steady to lower, turned lower for the overnight session, but then managed to trade mainly mixed through the day session. Early selling was tied to the lack of news as traders wait for Friday’s report. Most are not expecting much news for wheat from this report. Losses were trimmed at the start of the day session and wheat even turned higher to post small gains. Support spilled over from the other grains. Position squaring and evening up of positions ahead of Friday was also evident.
The wheat markets ended Thursday’s session mixed with all closing within a cent on either side of unchanged as the spotlight was on corn and soybeans. For the week ending 9/25/25, wheat export sales totaled 11.6 MB. USDA will release weekly reports twice a week until caught up. In world news, Russia put out their first estimates of their 2026 wheat crop with production at 83.8 MMT, down 4 MMT from last year due to lower planted spring wheat acres. Rosario Grains Exchange reported Argentina’s wheat crop is 15% harvested and estimates production at a record 24.5 MMT vs. 23.0 MMT last month. USDA’s Sept. estimate was 19.5 MMT and will likely be increased in tomorrow’s report.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.45, Dec CME MW support is $5.15, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Dec Mpls MIAX was at $5.6475 up 6.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.2725 down 0.5 cent, and Dec KC was at $5.1525 down 4.0 cents.