The Small Grains Summary was also negative wheat due to a larger than expected increase in production. All wheat production was estimated at 1.985 BB, 60 MB above expectations and 58 MB above last month. Winter wheat production was estimated at 1.4 BB, 48 MB above expectations and 47 MB above last month. Other spring wheat production was estimated at 497 MB, 13 MB above expectations and 13 MB above last month. The production increase was due to an increase in winter wheat harvest acres and a small yield increase. Adding to the increase was a slight decrease in spring wheat harvested acres and an increase in yield. The end result The week started off with wheat opening the session with mostly small gains to small losses (Chicago). All three of the wheat exchanges started the day at their session highs. Trading was thin and uneventful to say the least as wheat only saw a 3 to 7 cent trading range. Early support was due to last week’s better than expected shipments pace. Technical buying added support as Tuesday is end of month and end of quarter, which has resulted in some position squaring. Weather continues to be bearish as the next 1-to-5-day forecast is calling for warm dry conditions followed by the 6 to 10 day which is calling for warm wet conditions for the Plains. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report was evident.
Selling pressure returned to wheat with vengeance Tuesday, pushing all three exchanges to new contract lows once again. Wheat opened steady to lower and turned mixed by the end of the night session. KC was able to pop to the plus side while Mpls remained lower and Chicago steady. Early activity was thin and light with most of the early action attributed to last minute position squaring ahead of USDA’s reports. End of month and end of quarter position squaring was also evident.
Selling increased once USDA released their reports as both were neutral to negative wheat. The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate came in at 2.12 BB, 77 MB above expectations and 128 MB above last year’s estimate According to the report 1.43 BB of wheat is being held off farm while 692 MB is stored on farm. KS hold a majority of the wheat (415.9 MB) with ND close behind (324.8 MB).
was all three wheat exchanges retreated to contract lows.
By midweek, wheat was looking for friendly news to help the market recover some of the week’s losses. After opening steady to lower wheat extended losses through the start of the day session. Early selling was tied to Tuesday’s USDA reports as both reports came with negative numbers for wheat. Light selling was tied to the government shutdown as that will leave the market void of news to give traders direction. The early selling pressure was enough to push wheat to another new contract low in all three exchanges. By midsession wheat trimmed its losses due to technical buying as well as from spill over support from the higher corn and soybean market.
Buy orders continue to enter the wheat exchanges on Thursday as wheat continued to try and dig itself out of a hole. Early activity was focused on thin light trading as traders look for direction. With the government shutdown, all USDA reports are suspended and that included Thursday’s export sales report, which is leaving the market hungry for news. By the start of the day, buying returned with support spilling over from the higher soybean complex. Technical support was also evident as once again wheat was able to bounce off another new contract low.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.65, Dec CME MW support is $5.25, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
As of Sept 28, winter wheat planting was estimated at 34% completed vs 20% last week and 36% average. Emergence was estimated at 13% vs 4% last week and vs 12% average.
As of Sept 28, ND durum harvest progress was estimated at 92% complete vs 86% last week.
Last week’s wheat export shipments pace was estimated at 27.1 MB. After 17 weeks, wheat shipments were at 39% of USDA’s expectations vs. 37% last year. With 35 weeks left in wheat’s export marketing year, shipments need to average 15.7 MB to make USDA’s projection of 900 MB.
For the week, Dec Mpls MIAX was at $5.5975 down 8.0 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.1525 down 4.5 cents, Dec KC was at $4.97 down 8.5 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments Oct 3
Wheat Weekly Comments Oct 3
The Small Grains Summary was also negative wheat due to a larger than expected increase in production. All wheat production was estimated at 1.985 BB, 60 MB above expectations and 58 MB above last month. Winter wheat production was estimated at 1.4 BB, 48 MB above expectations and 47 MB above last month. Other spring wheat production was estimated at 497 MB, 13 MB above expectations and 13 MB above last month. The production increase was due to an increase in winter wheat harvest acres and a small yield increase. Adding to the increase was a slight decrease in spring wheat harvested acres and an increase in yield. The end result The week started off with wheat opening the session with mostly small gains to small losses (Chicago). All three of the wheat exchanges started the day at their session highs. Trading was thin and uneventful to say the least as wheat only saw a 3 to 7 cent trading range. Early support was due to last week’s better than expected shipments pace. Technical buying added support as Tuesday is end of month and end of quarter, which has resulted in some position squaring. Weather continues to be bearish as the next 1-to-5-day forecast is calling for warm dry conditions followed by the 6 to 10 day which is calling for warm wet conditions for the Plains. Position squaring ahead of Tuesday’s report was evident.
Selling pressure returned to wheat with vengeance Tuesday, pushing all three exchanges to new contract lows once again. Wheat opened steady to lower and turned mixed by the end of the night session. KC was able to pop to the plus side while Mpls remained lower and Chicago steady. Early activity was thin and light with most of the early action attributed to last minute position squaring ahead of USDA’s reports. End of month and end of quarter position squaring was also evident.
Selling increased once USDA released their reports as both were neutral to negative wheat. The Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate came in at 2.12 BB, 77 MB above expectations and 128 MB above last year’s estimate According to the report 1.43 BB of wheat is being held off farm while 692 MB is stored on farm. KS hold a majority of the wheat (415.9 MB) with ND close behind (324.8 MB).
was all three wheat exchanges retreated to contract lows.
By midweek, wheat was looking for friendly news to help the market recover some of the week’s losses. After opening steady to lower wheat extended losses through the start of the day session. Early selling was tied to Tuesday’s USDA reports as both reports came with negative numbers for wheat. Light selling was tied to the government shutdown as that will leave the market void of news to give traders direction. The early selling pressure was enough to push wheat to another new contract low in all three exchanges. By midsession wheat trimmed its losses due to technical buying as well as from spill over support from the higher corn and soybean market.
Buy orders continue to enter the wheat exchanges on Thursday as wheat continued to try and dig itself out of a hole. Early activity was focused on thin light trading as traders look for direction. With the government shutdown, all USDA reports are suspended and that included Thursday’s export sales report, which is leaving the market hungry for news. By the start of the day, buying returned with support spilling over from the higher soybean complex. Technical support was also evident as once again wheat was able to bounce off another new contract low.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.65, Dec CME MW support is $5.25, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
As of Sept 28, winter wheat planting was estimated at 34% completed vs 20% last week and 36% average. Emergence was estimated at 13% vs 4% last week and vs 12% average.
As of Sept 28, ND durum harvest progress was estimated at 92% complete vs 86% last week.
Last week’s wheat export shipments pace was estimated at 27.1 MB. After 17 weeks, wheat shipments were at 39% of USDA’s expectations vs. 37% last year. With 35 weeks left in wheat’s export marketing year, shipments need to average 15.7 MB to make USDA’s projection of 900 MB.
For the week, Dec Mpls MIAX was at $5.5975 down 8.0 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.1525 down 4.5 cents, Dec KC was at $4.97 down 8.5 cents.