Monday was a quiet day in the wheat markets with all 3 exchanges closing within 1 to 2 cents on either side of unchanged. Pressure came from reports that Australia’s wheat crop will be larger than the official estimate of 33.8 MMT (a survey of market participants put the crop at 35.7 MMT). News that Russia is lowering export duties on wheat by 69% for the week of Oct. 22 through Oct. 28 added pressure. Support came from improving export demand as marketing year to date export shipments are at 411 MB, up 20% from last year’s same week total of 342 MB. Jordan issued a tender of 4.4 MB of milling wheat while Algeria issued a tender of 1.8 MB of soft wheat.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to higher and continued to trade with minor changes throughout the night. Early selling pressure was tied to reports IKAR increased their production estimate for Russia to 88 MMT vs 87.5 MMT previously. Light selling was tied to reports of solid planting progress in the Southern Plains. Although the government is shut down, private analysts are estimating winter wheat planting progress at 75% complete. Selling increased once the day session started with pressure coming from comments from Trump that he might not be meeting with Xi in two weeks. Technically wheat continues to hang around contract lows. Trading continues to be thin and light as traders look for direction.
On Wednesday wheat started the session with each wheat exchange starting in its own direction. By the end of the night all three were trading close to steady. Early support spilled over from the news that USDA was going to restaff the FSA and start processing 2024 ARC/PLC payments as well as process the delayed $3 B disaster payments. This will give producers cash in their pockets and help delay the need for selling grain. Technical buying added support as wheat once again bounced off contract lows. Wheat is looking for news to give traders direction as at this point, wheat is closely following the other grains.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened mixed with Chicago higher while Mpls and KC started on the defense. By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges had brushed on early selling pressure and were posting gains. Stiffer sanctions against Russia helped give wheat support. The US is starting to flex their muscle in an attempt to get Russia to agree to a cease fire with Ukraine. Support also spilled over from the strength in the other grains. Technical buying was also noted as wheat bounced off recent lows. Forecasts for rain for the Southern Plains, which should slow down planting progress, added support.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.65, Dec CME MW support is $5.25, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Dec Mpls MIAX was at $5.57 up 8.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.125 up 8.75 cents, Dec KC was at $5.015 up 10.0 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments October 24
Wheat Weekly Comments October 24
Monday was a quiet day in the wheat markets with all 3 exchanges closing within 1 to 2 cents on either side of unchanged. Pressure came from reports that Australia’s wheat crop will be larger than the official estimate of 33.8 MMT (a survey of market participants put the crop at 35.7 MMT). News that Russia is lowering export duties on wheat by 69% for the week of Oct. 22 through Oct. 28 added pressure. Support came from improving export demand as marketing year to date export shipments are at 411 MB, up 20% from last year’s same week total of 342 MB. Jordan issued a tender of 4.4 MB of milling wheat while Algeria issued a tender of 1.8 MB of soft wheat.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session steady to higher and continued to trade with minor changes throughout the night. Early selling pressure was tied to reports IKAR increased their production estimate for Russia to 88 MMT vs 87.5 MMT previously. Light selling was tied to reports of solid planting progress in the Southern Plains. Although the government is shut down, private analysts are estimating winter wheat planting progress at 75% complete. Selling increased once the day session started with pressure coming from comments from Trump that he might not be meeting with Xi in two weeks. Technically wheat continues to hang around contract lows. Trading continues to be thin and light as traders look for direction.
On Wednesday wheat started the session with each wheat exchange starting in its own direction. By the end of the night all three were trading close to steady. Early support spilled over from the news that USDA was going to restaff the FSA and start processing 2024 ARC/PLC payments as well as process the delayed $3 B disaster payments. This will give producers cash in their pockets and help delay the need for selling grain. Technical buying added support as wheat once again bounced off contract lows. Wheat is looking for news to give traders direction as at this point, wheat is closely following the other grains.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened mixed with Chicago higher while Mpls and KC started on the defense. By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges had brushed on early selling pressure and were posting gains. Stiffer sanctions against Russia helped give wheat support. The US is starting to flex their muscle in an attempt to get Russia to agree to a cease fire with Ukraine. Support also spilled over from the strength in the other grains. Technical buying was also noted as wheat bounced off recent lows. Forecasts for rain for the Southern Plains, which should slow down planting progress, added support.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.65, Dec CME MW support is $5.25, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Dec Mpls MIAX was at $5.57 up 8.5 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.125 up 8.75 cents, Dec KC was at $5.015 up 10.0 cents.