Wheat opened Monday’s session mixed with Chicago steady while MW and KC started with gains. By the end of the night session, all three wheat exchanges had flipped direction (Chicago was higher while MW and KC were lower). The continued uncertainty with the Black Sea war has traders reluctant to own wheat at this point as no one wants to be left holding the bag if a peace deal gets accomplished and export sanction get lifted. To date Ukraine wheat exports are running 43% behind last year, and that could change quickly if a peace deal is made. Additional pressure was due to another week of disappointing export shipments as wheat shipments are now 35% behind last year’s pace.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened higher in all three exchanges but faded those gains to end the night in the red and even extended session losses throughout the day. Early support was due to technical buying as wheat bounced off support in an attempt to correct an oversold condition. But the lack of follow-through buying uncovered more fund long liquidation. Renewed talk of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine pulled wheat off of its highs as the talk of peace has traders nervous about going long wheat on the expectation that wheat will sell off once shipping can resume in the Black Sea. The US Ag Attache in Australia is estimating wheat production at 32 MMT vs 31 MMT previously. Technically Mpls wheat tested support.
Wheat opened steady to higher in Wednesday’s session but switched to trade mixed for much of the night. Mpls was the weakest wheat exchange while the winter wheat exchanges managed to push higher. That changed once the day session started and there were reports Russia was allowing grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov ports for the first time since July. This is expected to ease the bottleneck of wheat exports. Technically all three wheat exchanges put in new contract lows today. All three wheats are in an oversold market condition, but with news of Russia shipping wheat out through alternative routes it will be tough to encourage new buying. Mpls has traded lower for 12 start sessions. Planting progress in the Southern Plains is expected to slow down this weekend due to rain being added to the forecast.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction. That did not last long though as by the end of the night session, all three wheat exchanges were in the red. Losses were trimmed after USDA released their export sales report. To everyone’s surprise, wheat export sales pace was sharply above expectations and bullish wheat. Buying picked up it pace on reports that China was interested in buying some wheat from the US. Technically all three wheat exchanges traded to new contract lows yesterday, so today’s small recovery was very much needed.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.21, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.10; Dec KC support is $6.40.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.2375 down 17.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.035 down 22.5 cents, Dec KC was at $6.4425 down 20.25 cents.
For the month, Dec MIAX was down 69.5 cents, Dec Chicago was down 72.25 cents, Dec KC was down 88.75 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments October 30
Wheat Weekly Comments October 30
Wheat opened Monday’s session mixed with Chicago steady while MW and KC started with gains. By the end of the night session, all three wheat exchanges had flipped direction (Chicago was higher while MW and KC were lower). The continued uncertainty with the Black Sea war has traders reluctant to own wheat at this point as no one wants to be left holding the bag if a peace deal gets accomplished and export sanction get lifted. To date Ukraine wheat exports are running 43% behind last year, and that could change quickly if a peace deal is made. Additional pressure was due to another week of disappointing export shipments as wheat shipments are now 35% behind last year’s pace.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened higher in all three exchanges but faded those gains to end the night in the red and even extended session losses throughout the day. Early support was due to technical buying as wheat bounced off support in an attempt to correct an oversold condition. But the lack of follow-through buying uncovered more fund long liquidation. Renewed talk of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine pulled wheat off of its highs as the talk of peace has traders nervous about going long wheat on the expectation that wheat will sell off once shipping can resume in the Black Sea. The US Ag Attache in Australia is estimating wheat production at 32 MMT vs 31 MMT previously. Technically Mpls wheat tested support.
Wheat opened steady to higher in Wednesday’s session but switched to trade mixed for much of the night. Mpls was the weakest wheat exchange while the winter wheat exchanges managed to push higher. That changed once the day session started and there were reports Russia was allowing grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov ports for the first time since July. This is expected to ease the bottleneck of wheat exports. Technically all three wheat exchanges put in new contract lows today. All three wheats are in an oversold market condition, but with news of Russia shipping wheat out through alternative routes it will be tough to encourage new buying. Mpls has traded lower for 12 start sessions. Planting progress in the Southern Plains is expected to slow down this weekend due to rain being added to the forecast.
Wheat opened Thursday’s session with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction. That did not last long though as by the end of the night session, all three wheat exchanges were in the red. Losses were trimmed after USDA released their export sales report. To everyone’s surprise, wheat export sales pace was sharply above expectations and bullish wheat. Buying picked up it pace on reports that China was interested in buying some wheat from the US. Technically all three wheat exchanges traded to new contract lows yesterday, so today’s small recovery was very much needed.
Dec Mpls support is at $6.21, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.10; Dec KC support is $6.40.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $6.2375 down 17.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $6.035 down 22.5 cents, Dec KC was at $6.4425 down 20.25 cents.
For the month, Dec MIAX was down 69.5 cents, Dec Chicago was down 72.25 cents, Dec KC was down 88.75 cents.