To start the week wheat opened the session lower across the board. Trading volume was light, and the trading range was tight at 1 to 5 cents. Early support came from weather forecasts showing freezing temps for much of the northern tier of ND, MN, and MT. Not to mention Canada. Gains were kept in check from another round of increases in the Black Sea region. APK Inform increased their Ukraine wheat production to 21.9 MMT vs 19.7 MMT previously. Sovecon also increased their Russian wheat production estimate to 86.1 MMT vs 85.4 MMT previously. Late in the session wheat surged higher off of technical buying, which was triggered once wheat traded above resistance. Expectations that USDA will lower wheat production in their Sept report added light support.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with Chicago wheat higher while MW and KC were lower. Selling took control of wheat once the session progressed. Selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed good harvest progress in the Northern Plains. Reports of heavy rain amounts in parts of KS added pressure. Losses were kept in check early by weather forecasts calling for hot dry conditions for the Southern Plains, just as wheat planting is getting under way. Stats Canada’s July Stocks estimate added light support was wheat stocks in Canada were lower than expected. All wheat stocks were estimated at 4.11 MMT vs expectation of 4.42 MMT and vs 5.3 MMT last year. A surge in the Black Sea war and Israel and Hamas war added pressure.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened lower and continued to trade with small changes from the previous day throughout the session and all of the wheat markets closed with small losses. Trading is thin and volume is light as traders look for direction. Weather is improving as warmer temps are in the forecast for the Northern Plains, which should help wrap up spring wheat harvest. The Southern Plains picked up good rain over the weekend, which will slow down planting in the short term, but it brought much needed moisture to the winter wheat region.
On Thursday wheat opened mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago traded with gains. All of the wheat exchanges were in the red by early morning. But Chicago managed to shake off its selling pressure and bounce off contract’s lows. Early selling was tied to another round of increased world production estimates. IKAR increased Russia’s production to 87 MMT vs 86 MMT previously. Sovecon also increased their Russian wheat production estimate, now at 87.2 MMT vs 86.1 MMT previously. Expana is projecting the EU-27 soft wheat production to be a record 136.1 MMT vs 132.8 MMT previously. The morning’s export sales estimate for wheat was disappointing, coming in at the bottom of expectations. But wheat exports are sitting at their 5th highest level for this time of year. Losses were trimmed late in the session and wheat even managed to rally into the close and end with gains. Technical buying gave wheat the strength to rally.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.65, Dec CME MW support is $5.25, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Dec Mpls MIAX was at $5.7175 up 5.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.235 up 4.25 cents, Dec KC was at $5.1475 up 9.5 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments September 12
Wheat Weekly Comments September 12
To start the week wheat opened the session lower across the board. Trading volume was light, and the trading range was tight at 1 to 5 cents. Early support came from weather forecasts showing freezing temps for much of the northern tier of ND, MN, and MT. Not to mention Canada. Gains were kept in check from another round of increases in the Black Sea region. APK Inform increased their Ukraine wheat production to 21.9 MMT vs 19.7 MMT previously. Sovecon also increased their Russian wheat production estimate to 86.1 MMT vs 85.4 MMT previously. Late in the session wheat surged higher off of technical buying, which was triggered once wheat traded above resistance. Expectations that USDA will lower wheat production in their Sept report added light support.
Wheat opened Tuesday’s session mixed with Chicago wheat higher while MW and KC were lower. Selling took control of wheat once the session progressed. Selling was tied to Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, which showed good harvest progress in the Northern Plains. Reports of heavy rain amounts in parts of KS added pressure. Losses were kept in check early by weather forecasts calling for hot dry conditions for the Southern Plains, just as wheat planting is getting under way. Stats Canada’s July Stocks estimate added light support was wheat stocks in Canada were lower than expected. All wheat stocks were estimated at 4.11 MMT vs expectation of 4.42 MMT and vs 5.3 MMT last year. A surge in the Black Sea war and Israel and Hamas war added pressure.
In Wednesday’s session wheat opened lower and continued to trade with small changes from the previous day throughout the session and all of the wheat markets closed with small losses. Trading is thin and volume is light as traders look for direction. Weather is improving as warmer temps are in the forecast for the Northern Plains, which should help wrap up spring wheat harvest. The Southern Plains picked up good rain over the weekend, which will slow down planting in the short term, but it brought much needed moisture to the winter wheat region.
On Thursday wheat opened mixed with Mpls and KC lower while Chicago traded with gains. All of the wheat exchanges were in the red by early morning. But Chicago managed to shake off its selling pressure and bounce off contract’s lows. Early selling was tied to another round of increased world production estimates. IKAR increased Russia’s production to 87 MMT vs 86 MMT previously. Sovecon also increased their Russian wheat production estimate, now at 87.2 MMT vs 86.1 MMT previously. Expana is projecting the EU-27 soft wheat production to be a record 136.1 MMT vs 132.8 MMT previously. The morning’s export sales estimate for wheat was disappointing, coming in at the bottom of expectations. But wheat exports are sitting at their 5th highest level for this time of year. Losses were trimmed late in the session and wheat even managed to rally into the close and end with gains. Technical buying gave wheat the strength to rally.
Dec MIAX MW support is $5.65, Dec CME MW support is $5.25, Dec Chicago wheat support is $5.00, Dec KC support is $5.00.
For the week, Dec Mpls MIAX was at $5.7175 up 5.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $5.235 up 4.25 cents, Dec KC was at $5.1475 up 9.5 cents.