To start the week, wheat opened the session higher in all three exchanges but slipped to trade mixed by the end of the night session. Selling pressure expanded once the day session got under way. Selling pressure was due to another week of disappointing exports. Selling was also tied to rumors that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt attacks on energy facilities. This had not been confirmed by either Russia or Ukraine. APK Inform increased their wheat production estimate for Ukraine from 22.6 MMT to 25 MMT.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction (MW higher, Chicago steady, KC lower). By the end of the night all three were posting modest losses. All three firmed to trade with small gains during the day. Although Trump reported that both Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacking energy facilities, both countries staged attacks overnight on the others energy facilities. Ukraine did say they would honor the request, but only if Russia honors the agreement as well. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report added light pressure as it showed spring wheat harvest drawing to a close and good progress on winter wheat planting progress. Expectations have winter wheat acreage increasing sharply this year due to high potential base price for crop insurance.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with Mpls and Chicago lower while KC started with gains. By the end of the night all three exchanges were posting gains. Mpls led the wheat complex posting solid gains due to production concerns as reports out of Canada continue to paint a friendly situation in the making. Heavy rains are delaying harvest activity in Canada and starting to cause quality concerns even in the US as cooler wetter weather has slowed harvest. Stats Canada’s Sept Production report was friendly wheat. All wheat production was estimated at 36.12 MMT vs expectation of 36.7 MMT and vs 40.56 MMT last year. USDA’s Sept report estimated production at 36.0 MMT. The report that Russia Ukraine wheat stocks are at their highest levels since 1993/1994 pressured wheat late in the session.
All of the wheat markets traded mostly on the lower side on Thursday and closed with small losses. Pressure came from forecasts for rain across KS, which is greatly needed as winter wheat planting gets underway. Losses were limited by the continuing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. With Ukraine mostly unable to export grain out of the Black Sea, Russia moved on to damage a bridge used by Ukraine to move grain to Danube River ports, which will greatly slow down grain movement. SovEcon estimates combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for July through Sept total 8.0 MMT vs. 16.4 MMT for the same period last year. Last week’s export sales were as expected. Marketing year-to-date sales of 334 MB are 31% below last year’s pace and sales are the second lowest in 44 years at 15 weeks into the marketing year.
Dec Mpls support is at $7.21, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.78; Dec KC support is $7.55.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $7.4125 down 3.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $7.1425 down 11.0 cents, Dec KC was at $7.8375 down 14.75 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments September 18
Wheat Weekly Comments September 18
To start the week, wheat opened the session higher in all three exchanges but slipped to trade mixed by the end of the night session. Selling pressure expanded once the day session got under way. Selling pressure was due to another week of disappointing exports. Selling was also tied to rumors that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt attacks on energy facilities. This had not been confirmed by either Russia or Ukraine. APK Inform increased their wheat production estimate for Ukraine from 22.6 MMT to 25 MMT.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction (MW higher, Chicago steady, KC lower). By the end of the night all three were posting modest losses. All three firmed to trade with small gains during the day. Although Trump reported that both Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacking energy facilities, both countries staged attacks overnight on the others energy facilities. Ukraine did say they would honor the request, but only if Russia honors the agreement as well. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report added light pressure as it showed spring wheat harvest drawing to a close and good progress on winter wheat planting progress. Expectations have winter wheat acreage increasing sharply this year due to high potential base price for crop insurance.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with Mpls and Chicago lower while KC started with gains. By the end of the night all three exchanges were posting gains. Mpls led the wheat complex posting solid gains due to production concerns as reports out of Canada continue to paint a friendly situation in the making. Heavy rains are delaying harvest activity in Canada and starting to cause quality concerns even in the US as cooler wetter weather has slowed harvest. Stats Canada’s Sept Production report was friendly wheat. All wheat production was estimated at 36.12 MMT vs expectation of 36.7 MMT and vs 40.56 MMT last year. USDA’s Sept report estimated production at 36.0 MMT. The report that Russia Ukraine wheat stocks are at their highest levels since 1993/1994 pressured wheat late in the session.
All of the wheat markets traded mostly on the lower side on Thursday and closed with small losses. Pressure came from forecasts for rain across KS, which is greatly needed as winter wheat planting gets underway. Losses were limited by the continuing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. With Ukraine mostly unable to export grain out of the Black Sea, Russia moved on to damage a bridge used by Ukraine to move grain to Danube River ports, which will greatly slow down grain movement. SovEcon estimates combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports for July through Sept total 8.0 MMT vs. 16.4 MMT for the same period last year. Last week’s export sales were as expected. Marketing year-to-date sales of 334 MB are 31% below last year’s pace and sales are the second lowest in 44 years at 15 weeks into the marketing year.
Dec Mpls support is at $7.21, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.78; Dec KC support is $7.55.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $7.4125 down 3.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $7.1425 down 11.0 cents, Dec KC was at $7.8375 down 14.75 cents.