To start the week wheat opened with gains in the winter wheat exchanges but lower in Mpls. Wheat managed to brush off the early selling pressure and turn higher during the overnight session. Gains expanded once the day session got under way with support spilling over from the higher corn and soybean complex. The continuous escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine along with the US Iran war added support. Gains were trimmed late in the session from weather forecasts calling for good rains to fall over the Southern Plains over the next week to 10 days. Expectations for a large increase in winter wheat acreage this year added late session pressure.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened mixed with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago higher, KC steady). By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges were posting losses. Reports that Russia has removed their grain export tax until the end of 2026 added pressure. Light selling was also tied to rumors that Russia was re-tooling fertilizer export facilities in Baltic and Arctic, switching them over to export grain. Selling was also tied to rumors that Zelensky and Trump are going to meet today to talk about a possible cease fire agreement with Russia.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session steady to lower and extended session losses throughout the night and start of the day session. Early selling was tied to the lack of export demand as the US has yet to garish any new demand even though a few of the top wheat exports are out of the game. Reports that indirect talks with Iran went well added pressure. Selling was also tied to reports that Zelensky is open to an energy ceasefire if Russia honors the deal as well. In world news, BAGE is estimating Argentina wheat production at 23.4 MMT vs 27.8 MMT last year. EU/UK wheat production is now estimated at 137.5 MMT vs 140.8 MMT previously.
Wheat opened mixed in Thursday’s session with Mpls posting small gains on the opening bell while the two winter wheat exchanges started on the defense. Selling pressure expanded through the night and start of the day session due to the lack of news with light selling tied to another disappointing export sales report. Expectations of potential energy ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia appear to be evaporating as Russia is not interested in a ceasefire at this time.
Light selling was tied to reports that the US has rejected Iran’s Strait of Hormuz offering to open when Iran’s demands are met. But rumors resurfaced at the start of the day that talks between Iran and the US has resumed. Technically wheat is testing support and with forecasts for rain for the Southern Plains and expectation for winter wheat acreage increasing sharply, it will be tough for wheat to rally. Next week’s Small Grains Summary should be friendly wheat, but that might be the last of the friendly news for wheat for some time.
Dec Mpls support is at $7.21, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.78; Dec KC support is $7.55.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $7.135 down 27.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $7.0325 down 11.0 cents, Dec KC was at $7.62 down 21.75 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments September 25
Wheat Weekly Comments September 25
To start the week wheat opened with gains in the winter wheat exchanges but lower in Mpls. Wheat managed to brush off the early selling pressure and turn higher during the overnight session. Gains expanded once the day session got under way with support spilling over from the higher corn and soybean complex. The continuous escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine along with the US Iran war added support. Gains were trimmed late in the session from weather forecasts calling for good rains to fall over the Southern Plains over the next week to 10 days. Expectations for a large increase in winter wheat acreage this year added late session pressure.
In Tuesday’s session wheat opened mixed with each of the wheat exchanges going in their own direction (Mpls lower, Chicago higher, KC steady). By the end of the night session all three wheat exchanges were posting losses. Reports that Russia has removed their grain export tax until the end of 2026 added pressure. Light selling was also tied to rumors that Russia was re-tooling fertilizer export facilities in Baltic and Arctic, switching them over to export grain. Selling was also tied to rumors that Zelensky and Trump are going to meet today to talk about a possible cease fire agreement with Russia.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session steady to lower and extended session losses throughout the night and start of the day session. Early selling was tied to the lack of export demand as the US has yet to garish any new demand even though a few of the top wheat exports are out of the game. Reports that indirect talks with Iran went well added pressure. Selling was also tied to reports that Zelensky is open to an energy ceasefire if Russia honors the deal as well. In world news, BAGE is estimating Argentina wheat production at 23.4 MMT vs 27.8 MMT last year. EU/UK wheat production is now estimated at 137.5 MMT vs 140.8 MMT previously.
Wheat opened mixed in Thursday’s session with Mpls posting small gains on the opening bell while the two winter wheat exchanges started on the defense. Selling pressure expanded through the night and start of the day session due to the lack of news with light selling tied to another disappointing export sales report. Expectations of potential energy ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia appear to be evaporating as Russia is not interested in a ceasefire at this time.
Light selling was tied to reports that the US has rejected Iran’s Strait of Hormuz offering to open when Iran’s demands are met. But rumors resurfaced at the start of the day that talks between Iran and the US has resumed. Technically wheat is testing support and with forecasts for rain for the Southern Plains and expectation for winter wheat acreage increasing sharply, it will be tough for wheat to rally. Next week’s Small Grains Summary should be friendly wheat, but that might be the last of the friendly news for wheat for some time.
Dec Mpls support is at $7.21, Dec Chicago wheat support is $6.78; Dec KC support is $7.55.
For the week, Dec MIAX was at $7.135 down 27.75 cents, Dec Chicago was at $7.0325 down 11.0 cents, Dec KC was at $7.62 down 21.75 cents.