To start the week wheat opened the session higher in all three exchanges with early support coming from technical buying. Light support was due to weather concerns as traders are starting to worry about the Southern Plains (OK and TX) might be getting too much rain. The lack of planting activity in most of ND and MN added support to Mpls, which continued to hold gains even after the winter wheat contracts didn’t. The winter wheat exchanges lost their gains once the day session got under way with selling tied to spill over pressure from the lower corn and soybean markets. Expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will be negative added selling pressure. Another disappointing weekly export inspection also pressured wheat.
On Tuesday wheat opened the session mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges traded with gains. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress should have been considered to be negative winter wheat as conditions were better than expected and friendly spring wheat as planting was not as far along as expected. But with more rain falling in the Southern Plains resulting in flooding concerns, winter wheat found support while forecast calling for warm dry conditions in the Northern Plains signals better planting conditions are ahead. IKAR is estimating Russia’s 2025 wheat crop at 83.8 MMT vs 82.5 MMT previously. China’s Henan region, which produces about a third of China’s wheat, it expected to see much above normal temps over the next week just as the wheat crop starts its critical crop development stage.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with Mpls lower while Chicago and KC were steady. All three exchanges were able to brush off the early selling pressure and push higher throughout the rest of the night. Early support spilled over from the other grains. Light support was also due to reports that the US and China are going to meet and start trade talks later this week. The Wheat Quality Tour starts May 12. Ahead of that, OK Wheat Commission is estimating OK’s wheat production at 101.2 MB vs 108.3 MB last year. Wheat faded their gains during the day session with selling tied to comments from Trump saying he will not adjust China’s tariffs ahead of the talks.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the session mixed with the winter wheat exchanges lower while Mpls was steady. All three exchanges were able to shake off the selling pressure early in the overnight session due to support from production concerns in the Southern Plains. There are starting to be reports of disease pressure in some regions due to recent heavy rains. Gains were trimmed late in the session with selling tied to Stats Canada’s negative Stocks estimate. Canada’s wheat stocks as of March 31 were estimated at 15.42 MMT vs expectations of 13.2 MMT. The huge increase in stocks was not due to 2024 production, but mainly due to a sharp adjustment to last year’s stocks estimate. 2023 stocks were revised to 15.6 MMT vs 13.66 MMT. Additional selling was tied to another disappointing export sales estimate, which showed minimal old crop sales but decent new crop sales. Taiwan reportedly bought 99 TMT of new crop wheat overnight.
Ahead of Monday’s Crop Production report, USDA is estimating old crop stocks at 850 MB vs 846 MB last month. For 2025, USDA is estimating all wheat production at 1.885 BB vs 1.97 BB last year. New crop stocks are estimated at 863 MB.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, July Mpls was at $5.9175 down 18.75 cents, July Chicago was at $5.2175 down 20.25 cents, July KC was at $5.175 down 23.75 cents.
Wheat Weekly Comments May 9
Wheat Weekly Comments May 9
To start the week wheat opened the session higher in all three exchanges with early support coming from technical buying. Light support was due to weather concerns as traders are starting to worry about the Southern Plains (OK and TX) might be getting too much rain. The lack of planting activity in most of ND and MN added support to Mpls, which continued to hold gains even after the winter wheat contracts didn’t. The winter wheat exchanges lost their gains once the day session got under way with selling tied to spill over pressure from the lower corn and soybean markets. Expectations that this afternoon’s Crop Progress report will be negative added selling pressure. Another disappointing weekly export inspection also pressured wheat.
On Tuesday wheat opened the session mixed with Mpls wheat lower while the winter wheat exchanges traded with gains. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress should have been considered to be negative winter wheat as conditions were better than expected and friendly spring wheat as planting was not as far along as expected. But with more rain falling in the Southern Plains resulting in flooding concerns, winter wheat found support while forecast calling for warm dry conditions in the Northern Plains signals better planting conditions are ahead. IKAR is estimating Russia’s 2025 wheat crop at 83.8 MMT vs 82.5 MMT previously. China’s Henan region, which produces about a third of China’s wheat, it expected to see much above normal temps over the next week just as the wheat crop starts its critical crop development stage.
Wheat opened Wednesday’s session mixed with Mpls lower while Chicago and KC were steady. All three exchanges were able to brush off the early selling pressure and push higher throughout the rest of the night. Early support spilled over from the other grains. Light support was also due to reports that the US and China are going to meet and start trade talks later this week. The Wheat Quality Tour starts May 12. Ahead of that, OK Wheat Commission is estimating OK’s wheat production at 101.2 MB vs 108.3 MB last year. Wheat faded their gains during the day session with selling tied to comments from Trump saying he will not adjust China’s tariffs ahead of the talks.
In Thursday’s session wheat opened the session mixed with the winter wheat exchanges lower while Mpls was steady. All three exchanges were able to shake off the selling pressure early in the overnight session due to support from production concerns in the Southern Plains. There are starting to be reports of disease pressure in some regions due to recent heavy rains. Gains were trimmed late in the session with selling tied to Stats Canada’s negative Stocks estimate. Canada’s wheat stocks as of March 31 were estimated at 15.42 MMT vs expectations of 13.2 MMT. The huge increase in stocks was not due to 2024 production, but mainly due to a sharp adjustment to last year’s stocks estimate. 2023 stocks were revised to 15.6 MMT vs 13.66 MMT. Additional selling was tied to another disappointing export sales estimate, which showed minimal old crop sales but decent new crop sales. Taiwan reportedly bought 99 TMT of new crop wheat overnight.
Ahead of Monday’s Crop Production report, USDA is estimating old crop stocks at 850 MB vs 846 MB last month. For 2025, USDA is estimating all wheat production at 1.885 BB vs 1.97 BB last year. New crop stocks are estimated at 863 MB.
Target $6.65 to advance sales.
For the week, July Mpls was at $5.9175 down 18.75 cents, July Chicago was at $5.2175 down 20.25 cents, July KC was at $5.175 down 23.75 cents.