Corn opened the week lower but recovered its losses and bounced higher by the end of the night session. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from a lower wheat complex as well as from expectations that Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good planting progress. Early estimate for progress is 34% complete. Forecasts calling for warm dry conditions to prevail for the second corn crop in Brazil added support. This region is expected to see only 58% of normal rainfall over the next 1 to 7 days. US weather forecasts calling for below normal temps for the Northern Plains and Corn Belt added support. Support also came from extremely strong demand, which was evident in last week’s corn shipments pace, which came in at the second highest level this marketing year. Technically today’s close in corn was friendly.
Tuesday’s session opened lower and extended losses throughout the night and into the day. A better-than-expected planting progress for corn started corn on the defense. Most of the major corn producing states were showing good planting progress, but there are three states showing minor delays (IA, CO, KS) but 5 states showing concerning delays (MI, MO, NC, ND, and WI). After trading to another new contract high overnight, profit taking set in to pull corn off its highs. Spill over pressure from the lower wheat complex added pressure. Losses were kept in check from forecasts calling for cool temps for much of the Northern Plains and Corn Belt over the next 7 to 10 days. StoneX increased their corn production estimate for Brazil to 137 MMT vs 135.7 MMT previously. Dr Cordonnier left his corn production estimate for Brazil unchanged at 134 MMT. Argentina’s production estimate was also left unchanged at 62 MMT. Dr Cordonnier still believes the US corn planted acreage will decline by 1 to 2 million.
By midweek corn was trading lower and extended session losses throughout the morning and into the day session. Selling was tied to profit taking and spill over pressure from a sharply lower crude oil market. Crude oil was lower due to pressure from reports that a peace deal was close at hand with Iran. Improving weather conditions added pressure. Technical selling added pressure in corn as sell orders were triggered once corn traded back to its recent highs. Technically Dec corn has not tested its 50% retracement line from its recent high to recent low. That level is $4.85.
Last week’s ethanol production showed a slight recovery. Last week’s pace was estimated at 1.017 million barrels, up 8,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks are estimated at 26.02 million barrels, up 139,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand slipped slightly lower again this week.
To close out the week Thursday, corn opened lower and continued to trade with losses throughout the night and into the day session. News was hard to find for corn, so it took the path of least resistance, following the trend set by the lower wheat and soybeans. Selling was tied to optimism that the war with Iran will soon be ending and that the Strait will soon be open. Losses were trimmed late in the session from reports that Iran is pushing back on signing the agreement. Position squaring ahead of next week’s reports added support.
Estimates for USDA’s May Crop Production report have old crop corn stocks estimated at 2.13 BB vs 2.13 BB last month.
For new crop, USDA is estimating production at 15.93 BB vs 15.78 BB from the Ag Outlook Forum. Yield is estimated at 182.8 bus vs 183.0 bus from the Ag Outlook Forum. New crop stocks are estimated at 1.92 BB vs 1.84 BB from the Ag Outlook Forum.
Old crop world corn stocks are estimated at 296.3 MMT vs 294.8 MMT last month. New crop world corn ending stocks are estimated at 288.5 MMT.
Brazil’s production is estimated at 133.5 MMT vs 132 MMT last month. Argentina’s corn production is estimated at 56.1 MMT vs 52 MMT last month.
Technically Dec corn tested its 50% retracement line ($4.85) from its recent high to recent low. And it held, which is friendly.
Hedgers should target $5.15 to advance 2026 sales to 45%.
July corn support is $4.65. Dec corn support is at $4.83.
For the week, July corn was at $4.7125 down 9.0 cents. Dec corn was at $4.935 down 5.25 cents.
Corn Weekly Comments May 8
Corn Weekly Comments May 8
Corn opened the week lower but recovered its losses and bounced higher by the end of the night session. Early selling was tied to spill over pressure from a lower wheat complex as well as from expectations that Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report will show good planting progress. Early estimate for progress is 34% complete. Forecasts calling for warm dry conditions to prevail for the second corn crop in Brazil added support. This region is expected to see only 58% of normal rainfall over the next 1 to 7 days. US weather forecasts calling for below normal temps for the Northern Plains and Corn Belt added support. Support also came from extremely strong demand, which was evident in last week’s corn shipments pace, which came in at the second highest level this marketing year. Technically today’s close in corn was friendly.
Tuesday’s session opened lower and extended losses throughout the night and into the day. A better-than-expected planting progress for corn started corn on the defense. Most of the major corn producing states were showing good planting progress, but there are three states showing minor delays (IA, CO, KS) but 5 states showing concerning delays (MI, MO, NC, ND, and WI). After trading to another new contract high overnight, profit taking set in to pull corn off its highs. Spill over pressure from the lower wheat complex added pressure. Losses were kept in check from forecasts calling for cool temps for much of the Northern Plains and Corn Belt over the next 7 to 10 days. StoneX increased their corn production estimate for Brazil to 137 MMT vs 135.7 MMT previously. Dr Cordonnier left his corn production estimate for Brazil unchanged at 134 MMT. Argentina’s production estimate was also left unchanged at 62 MMT. Dr Cordonnier still believes the US corn planted acreage will decline by 1 to 2 million.
By midweek corn was trading lower and extended session losses throughout the morning and into the day session. Selling was tied to profit taking and spill over pressure from a sharply lower crude oil market. Crude oil was lower due to pressure from reports that a peace deal was close at hand with Iran. Improving weather conditions added pressure. Technical selling added pressure in corn as sell orders were triggered once corn traded back to its recent highs. Technically Dec corn has not tested its 50% retracement line from its recent high to recent low. That level is $4.85.
Last week’s ethanol production showed a slight recovery. Last week’s pace was estimated at 1.017 million barrels, up 8,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks are estimated at 26.02 million barrels, up 139,000 barrels from the previous week. Gas demand slipped slightly lower again this week.
To close out the week Thursday, corn opened lower and continued to trade with losses throughout the night and into the day session. News was hard to find for corn, so it took the path of least resistance, following the trend set by the lower wheat and soybeans. Selling was tied to optimism that the war with Iran will soon be ending and that the Strait will soon be open. Losses were trimmed late in the session from reports that Iran is pushing back on signing the agreement. Position squaring ahead of next week’s reports added support.
Estimates for USDA’s May Crop Production report have old crop corn stocks estimated at 2.13 BB vs 2.13 BB last month.
For new crop, USDA is estimating production at 15.93 BB vs 15.78 BB from the Ag Outlook Forum. Yield is estimated at 182.8 bus vs 183.0 bus from the Ag Outlook Forum. New crop stocks are estimated at 1.92 BB vs 1.84 BB from the Ag Outlook Forum.
Old crop world corn stocks are estimated at 296.3 MMT vs 294.8 MMT last month. New crop world corn ending stocks are estimated at 288.5 MMT.
Brazil’s production is estimated at 133.5 MMT vs 132 MMT last month. Argentina’s corn production is estimated at 56.1 MMT vs 52 MMT last month.
Technically Dec corn tested its 50% retracement line ($4.85) from its recent high to recent low. And it held, which is friendly.
Hedgers should target $5.15 to advance 2026 sales to 45%.
July corn support is $4.65. Dec corn support is at $4.83.
For the week, July corn was at $4.7125 down 9.0 cents. Dec corn was at $4.935 down 5.25 cents.