To start the week soybeans jumped 7 cents higher at the start of the overnight session and then added to the gains. The market trimmed the gains a bit in the day session but still closed around 5 cents higher. Support spilled over from the higher crude oil market after the US and Iran both rejected the other’s peace plan. Optimism ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting later this week report added to the gains. Argentina made good progress with their soybean harvest last week. Harvest is now 41% complete vs. 18% the prior week and 47% average. Brazil’s soybean harvest is 99% complete. Last week’s export shipments were at the high end of the range of trade expectations.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but climbed higher in the day session and closed with double-digit gains. Early support spilled over from the gains in the crude oil market. Support also came from a friendly USDA report. Old crop ending stocks came in at 340 MB, 10 MB lower than last month and 7 MB lower than expected. USDA cut exports by 10 MB but increased crush 20 MB.
For new crop, the national yield was estimated at 53.0 bu, unchanged from last year. Production was estimated at 4.435 BB, 173 MB more than last year but 10 MB lower than expected. New crop ending stocks came in at 310 MB, 30 MB lower than this past year and 45 MB lower than expected. USDA increased exports by 100 MB and crush by 120 MB vs. last year. The new crop national average price is estimated at $11.40, up $1.00 from this past year.
USDA left South American production unchanged with Brazil at 180 MMT and Argentina at 48 MMT. Old crop ending stocks were at 125.1 MMT, up 0.3 MMT from last month but 0.3 MMT lower than expected. New crop world ending stocks were estimated at 124.8 MMT, 2.0 MMT lower than expected. With the report now out of the way, traders will be watching the Trump/Xi meeting to see if any soybean announcements are made.
Soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged throughout Wednesday’s session. The market trimmed the gains late in the session to close just a couple of cents higher. Support carried over from Tuesday’s friendly USDA report. Even though production is estimated to be 173 MB more than last year, demand increases to exports (up 100 MB) and crush (up 120 MB) more than offset the production increase. Gains were limited by spillover pressure from the sharply lower soybean oil market.
Traders were a bit disappointed that China didn’t buy any US soybeans ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting as a goodwill gesture. The US is also pushing China to buy US corn, sorghum, and DDGs, which makes it less likely China will increase the amount of US soybeans they have already committed to buying. Brazil expects to export 16 MMT of soybeans in May, which would set a new record for the month.
On Thursday soybeans saw small losses for most of the overnight session. Losses accelerated late in the overnight session and continued into the day session and the market closed sharply lower. Pressure came from Treasury Sec. Bessent’s comments that China’s soybean commitment is “all taken care of,” which likely means China will not be making any more purchases of old crop US soybeans. Bessent did add that the current agreement for China to buy 25 MMT of US soybeans a year for the next 3 years is still in place. But traders took that to mean there would not be any discussion about increasing that amount.
With China likely out of the picture short term, last week’s export sales looked even more disappointing. Sales were at the low end of the range of trade expectations and a marketing year low. The bright spot today was USDA’s announcement of an export sale of 252,000 MT of soybeans to unknown, split with 120,000 MT of old crop and 132,000 metric tons of new crop. That was the first daily reported soybean sale since March 27. Argentina had another strong week of harvest progress. Harvest is now estimated at 60% complete vs. 41% last week and 62% average.
Hedgers should look to advance new crop soybeans sales at $12.25 Nov.
July soybean support is $11.67. Nov soybean support is at $11.45.
For the week, July soybeans were at $11.77 down 31.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.7075 down 18.75 cents. July soybean meal at $334.30 up $14.60 and July soybean oil was at $73.88 down 44 cents.
Soybean Weekly Comments May 15
Soybean Weekly Comments May 15
To start the week soybeans jumped 7 cents higher at the start of the overnight session and then added to the gains. The market trimmed the gains a bit in the day session but still closed around 5 cents higher. Support spilled over from the higher crude oil market after the US and Iran both rejected the other’s peace plan. Optimism ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting later this week report added to the gains. Argentina made good progress with their soybean harvest last week. Harvest is now 41% complete vs. 18% the prior week and 47% average. Brazil’s soybean harvest is 99% complete. Last week’s export shipments were at the high end of the range of trade expectations.
In Tuesday’s session soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but climbed higher in the day session and closed with double-digit gains. Early support spilled over from the gains in the crude oil market. Support also came from a friendly USDA report. Old crop ending stocks came in at 340 MB, 10 MB lower than last month and 7 MB lower than expected. USDA cut exports by 10 MB but increased crush 20 MB.
For new crop, the national yield was estimated at 53.0 bu, unchanged from last year. Production was estimated at 4.435 BB, 173 MB more than last year but 10 MB lower than expected. New crop ending stocks came in at 310 MB, 30 MB lower than this past year and 45 MB lower than expected. USDA increased exports by 100 MB and crush by 120 MB vs. last year. The new crop national average price is estimated at $11.40, up $1.00 from this past year.
USDA left South American production unchanged with Brazil at 180 MMT and Argentina at 48 MMT. Old crop ending stocks were at 125.1 MMT, up 0.3 MMT from last month but 0.3 MMT lower than expected. New crop world ending stocks were estimated at 124.8 MMT, 2.0 MMT lower than expected. With the report now out of the way, traders will be watching the Trump/Xi meeting to see if any soybean announcements are made.
Soybeans traded back and forth on both sides of unchanged throughout Wednesday’s session. The market trimmed the gains late in the session to close just a couple of cents higher. Support carried over from Tuesday’s friendly USDA report. Even though production is estimated to be 173 MB more than last year, demand increases to exports (up 100 MB) and crush (up 120 MB) more than offset the production increase. Gains were limited by spillover pressure from the sharply lower soybean oil market.
Traders were a bit disappointed that China didn’t buy any US soybeans ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting as a goodwill gesture. The US is also pushing China to buy US corn, sorghum, and DDGs, which makes it less likely China will increase the amount of US soybeans they have already committed to buying. Brazil expects to export 16 MMT of soybeans in May, which would set a new record for the month.
On Thursday soybeans saw small losses for most of the overnight session. Losses accelerated late in the overnight session and continued into the day session and the market closed sharply lower. Pressure came from Treasury Sec. Bessent’s comments that China’s soybean commitment is “all taken care of,” which likely means China will not be making any more purchases of old crop US soybeans. Bessent did add that the current agreement for China to buy 25 MMT of US soybeans a year for the next 3 years is still in place. But traders took that to mean there would not be any discussion about increasing that amount.
With China likely out of the picture short term, last week’s export sales looked even more disappointing. Sales were at the low end of the range of trade expectations and a marketing year low. The bright spot today was USDA’s announcement of an export sale of 252,000 MT of soybeans to unknown, split with 120,000 MT of old crop and 132,000 metric tons of new crop. That was the first daily reported soybean sale since March 27. Argentina had another strong week of harvest progress. Harvest is now estimated at 60% complete vs. 41% last week and 62% average.
Hedgers should look to advance new crop soybeans sales at $12.25 Nov.
July soybean support is $11.67. Nov soybean support is at $11.45.
For the week, July soybeans were at $11.77 down 31.0 cents while Nov soybeans were at $11.7075 down 18.75 cents. July soybean meal at $334.30 up $14.60 and July soybean oil was at $73.88 down 44 cents.